98L,TD may be forming

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Tropicswatcher
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 77
Joined: Wed Jun 01, 2005 12:53 pm
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#141 Postby Tropicswatcher » Sun Jul 10, 2005 11:49 am

cycloneye wrote:
Tropicswatcher wrote:
Ivan_The_Terrible wrote:FXCA62 TJSJ 101529
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1128 AM AST SUN JUL 10 2005

.. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY MOVE THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE NE CARIB THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND LOCAL
INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE. IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SHOWN A NORTHWARD BIAS IN TRAJECTORIES OF RECENT TROPICAL WAVES AS THEY APPROACHED THE CARIBBEAN...BUT THEN HAVE PERFORMED WELL ONCE THESE SYSTEMS HAVE MOVED NEAR AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE MEAN STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE REGION IS FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS DENNIS LIFTS NNW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID LEVEL HIGH REMAINS
ACROSS THE E CENTRAL ATLC...LEADING TO GLOBAL MODELS WNW TO NW MOTION THIS WEEK OF THIS APPROACHING WAVE AND THE FOLLOWING WAVE. 70


SOURCE: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/JSJ/AFDSJU


San Juan Forecast Office says that is forecast to come to this general vecinity.


It is too low in latitud around 10-11n which it is difficult for it to avoid the lesser antilles.


Ditto..
Also looks like TUTT is moving west to allow some ridging aloft in this area.
0 likes   
Top
BocaGirl66

#142 Postby BocaGirl66 » Sun Jul 10, 2005 11:51 am

we just got to wait and see what happens with this one..ill never get any sleep at this rate!! :sleeping:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
air360
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 447
Joined: Sat Sep 04, 2004 3:48 pm
Location: Morehead City, NC
Contact:
Contact air360

#143 Postby air360 » Sun Jul 10, 2005 11:51 am

sleep??...whats that?? :double:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Canelaw99
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2128
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 8:27 am
Location: Homestead, FL

#144 Postby Canelaw99 » Sun Jul 10, 2005 11:54 am

Don't you know there is no sleeping from June 1-Nov. 30??? :wink:
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#145 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Jul 10, 2005 11:56 am

We get to sleep for 6 months... :roll:
0 likes   
Top
sprink52
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 212
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 1:25 pm
Location: Royal Palm Beach, Fl

#146 Postby sprink52 » Sun Jul 10, 2005 11:58 am

I think I will go ahead and change the oil in my generator this week. Hey Scorpion, I don't know if you saw it on the news but my town Royal Palm Beach has banned permanent stand-by generators because they say they are too loud!! There are a bunch of permits on hold over at Building and Zoning waiting the outcome of a city commission meeting this week.What a bunch of crap!! :grr:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Tropicswatcher
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 77
Joined: Wed Jun 01, 2005 12:53 pm
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#147 Postby Tropicswatcher » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:00 pm

That's for us weatherlover's. Same thing when i was living in Conneticut. Right before a snowstorm many sleepless nights. :wink:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
wxwatcher91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1606
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 2:43 pm
Location: Keene, NH
Contact:
Contact wxwatcher91

#148 Postby wxwatcher91 » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:02 pm

well I've been getting about 2-4 hours of sleep a day... not necessarily at once though... half hour increments for me :wink:

I'm aiming for 6 to 8 the next two nights cuz Dennis should be weakening fast over land and Emily and Franklin shouldnt be doing too much exciting... after that I'll go back to my 2-4 hours sigh... what a life... :D

when does everybody think somebody in the NHC will notice 98/TD 5/Emily?... besides the guy who does the TWOs...

how strong do you think Emily will get?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
CentralFlGal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 573
Joined: Mon May 16, 2005 9:32 pm
Location: Cocoa Beach, FL

#149 Postby CentralFlGal » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:04 pm

sprink52 wrote:I think I will go ahead and change the oil in my generator this week. Hey Scorpion, I don't know if you saw it on the news but my town Royal Palm Beach has banned permanent stand-by generators because they say they are too loud!! There are a bunch of permits on hold over at Building and Zoning waiting the outcome of a city commission meeting this week.What a bunch of crap!! :grr:


Now that's really sad. Folks are attempting to prepare well in advance of future scenarios and a handful of busy bodies are worried over the noise.

Where has common sense gone in this world?
0 likes   
Top
gkrangers

#150 Postby gkrangers » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:04 pm

Well....the guy who does the TWO is whoever's shift it is. They rotate, each one is on duty a few hours a day.

They notice it, and will probably upgrade it to a Depression sometime in the next 24-36 hours, maybe sooner than that.

Their main focus is Dennis tho and they'll continue focussing on it until they can "hand it off" to the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center once its no longer tropical and is well inland.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
BUD
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 719
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:01 am
Location: N.M.B :SC

#151 Postby BUD » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:09 pm

Has anyone seen the models at 144hrs??
0 likes   
Top
gkrangers

#152 Postby gkrangers » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:10 pm

BUD wrote:Has anyone seen the models at 144hrs??
Yes.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
canegrl04
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2486
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2004 5:37 pm
Location: Texas

#153 Postby canegrl04 » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:10 pm

With such a low lattitude,isn't Emily to be likely to enter the GOM thru the BOC?
0 likes   
Top
gkrangers

#154 Postby gkrangers » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:14 pm

canegrl04 wrote:With such a low lattitude,isn't Emily to be likely to enter the GOM thru the BOC?
Well....its a little early for that. And it depends alot on the steering currents and strength of the subtropical ridge over the tropical atlantic.

This should impact the central-northern lesser antilles in 4-5 days.
0 likes   
Top
Guest

#155 Postby Guest » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:17 pm

gkrangers wrote:This should impact the central-northern lesser antilles in 4-5 days.



Thought you said it was too early to call?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
air360
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 447
Joined: Sat Sep 04, 2004 3:48 pm
Location: Morehead City, NC
Contact:
Contact air360

#156 Postby air360 » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:20 pm

i believe he was saying the far future track is to early to call...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
rainydaze
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 486
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 9:07 pm
Location: Jupiter, FL

#157 Postby rainydaze » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:24 pm

In my opinion. I don't want to call it a carribbean/gulf system or a US east coast system right now, no clue.








That's what he said.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
wxwatcher91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1606
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 2:43 pm
Location: Keene, NH
Contact:
Contact wxwatcher91

#158 Postby wxwatcher91 » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:39 pm

rainydaze wrote:
In my opinion. I don't want to call it a carribbean/gulf system or a US east coast system right now, no clue.








That's what he said.


well I dont want to call it a carribean/gulf stream or a US east coast system right now either....



...


east coast storm...


whoops I slipped :wink:
0 likes   
Top
BocaGirl66

#159 Postby BocaGirl66 » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:44 pm

dont jump to any conclusions until this wave develops..if it does..
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#160 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:46 pm

Its not a wave its a tropical distrabance. It is a area of tropical low pressure. It will likely become a depression with an 24 hours.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Cpv17, JoshwaDone, ncforecaster89, Teban54 and 52 guests