98L future track??

[air360]

**this is not a wishcast...this is an ability to understand the causes of events**

when a system gets closer to the US what does one need to watch to see wether it would curve up the coast of the US or go straight through FL? I am asking this becuase ive seen some models showing it go straight through FL and i saw a couple of others curving it up and pretty much missing landfall...so when i thought about a mix of these it seemed like it could ride up the coast as well as a possibility. I know the big high has a lot to do with it but is there a place or specific strength in which the high needs to be located for the storm to go through FL, ride up the EC, or turn out the sea?

*edited by mod to change Emily in title to 98L*

[wxwatcher91]

thats a pretty good point... I usually go by the strength of the high but position also matters a great deal... I really cant answer your question...

being a New Englander, this will be something very interesting to know

[air360]

yes...the GOM cant keep pulling in EVERY storm can it!!!

[gkrangers]

Most posts that start off with "This is not a wishcast"....are wishcasts.

[patsmsg]

Most posts that start off with "This is not a wishcast"....are wishcasts.

And you know this how?

[air360]

i put it becuase i wanted to know what causes things to happen. I didnt want replies of "the models are showing it going into the GOM". I was hoping for replies that gave me information on why. And to word a specific question i had to use phrases like "it seemed like it could ride up the coast as well as a possibility" but i didnt want anyone thinking i was saying it was going to do that or that i wanted it to...... so no, its not a wishcast...it was a disclaimer saying that i wanted information and whys...not that i was saying what was going to happen or that i wanted one liners of what someone says will happen without the why

[Derek Ortt]

can we please not call a wave by a name when we have a cat 4 hurricane hitting the USA? Peoples nerves are frayed enough, lets not add any extra fuel to the fire

[southerngale]

Most posts that start off with "This is not a wishcast"....are wishcasts.

He could have just left that off. Seems like a legit question, but if anyone seems concerned about their area, they're automatically called people I disagree with by some. Maybe he was trying to avoid that.

[The Big Dog]

can we please not call a wave by a name when we have a cat 4 hurricane hitting the USA? Peoples nerves are frayed enough, lets not add any extra fuel to the fire

Yeah, didn't we make a rule about that?

[gkrangers]

Most posts that start off with "This is not a wishcast"....are wishcasts.

And you know this how?

I'm psychic.

The subtropical ridge plays a huge role in determining weather storms move west and impact the US, or recurve out to sea.

I can't comment on something thats nearly two weeks away tho. Wait till "Emily" is near the lesser antilles...then we'll have a better idea if its a fish, US East Coast threat, or gulf/carribbean threat.

[cycloneye]

Let's call it what it is now a tropical wave.I will edit to take out the name Emily.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its really a tropical distrabance on the line of becoming a depression...


I'v seen distrabance be upgraded with no quickscats showing that it even has a LLC. Just from a Ship report showing west wind. If it was not for dennis this would be a depression.

[air360]

I apologize about the name thing. Seeing as how most people say it will should be a TD very soon i automatically put the name without thinking...i edited it

[deltadog03]

hey, there is a pretty goo ridge in the atlantic....i wouldn't see this recurve out..ATTM

[air360]

Most posts that start off with "This is not a wishcast"....are wishcasts.

And you know this how?

I'm psychic.

The subtropical ridge plays a huge role in determining weather storms move west and impact the US, or recurve out to sea.

I can't comment on something thats nearly two weeks away tho. Wait till "Emily" is near the lesser antilles...then we'll have a better idea if its a fish, US East Coast threat, or gulf/carribbean threat.

I wasnt even really looking for a forecast on this system specifically...but just a general rundown on how things work (ie: strong ridge could cause a storm to do ____, a weaker high could cause storm to ____) stuff like that....didnt even have to be specific to this storm or any

[jlauderdal]

Its really a tropical distrabance on the line of becoming a depression...


I'v seen distrabance be upgraded with no quickscats showing that it even has a LLC. Just from a Ship report showing west wind. If it was not for dennis this would be a depression.

What does Dennis have to do with this thing not being a depression?

[gkrangers]

Strong ridge keeps the storm south and prevents it from recurving. If the ridge extends all the way into the US, then a cyclone will follow the edge all the way to the US (Like Dennis just did).

If the ridge recedes to the north and east (meaning it no longer goes all the way to the US coast) then storms have a better chance to recurve, since they'll ride around the edge.

Thats a simple explanation.

[wxwatcher91]

what sites are you using for the models??

[air360]

thanks gkrangers...thats all i was asking for :)

I thought that was how it worked...but i wasnt sure...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Dennis has to do with taking all the forecaster at the nhc to its self. With none paying any attion to the distrabance/depression. I'v seen it many times.