More NW jog is not good at all....

[baitism]

It means more time over the water, more time over warmer water, and more time to complete its ERC (if that is indeed what its doing).

[MGC]

It is a wobble......MGC

[Mac]

NW Job not good? You damned Democrats are always complaining that the jobs aren't good enough.

[rtd2]

It is a wobble......MGC

Wala-Fox10 is Reporting NW movt. on there Crawl?

[baitism]

It is a wobble......MGC

I know its a wobble, but the fact still remains...

[dhweather]

Dennis is now on the NORTHEAST side of the ULL over the western GOM.

This gives him the opportunity to add a more westerly componet to his direction. Doesn't mean he will, but we should have a good idea in an hour or so, since he's well within radar range.

He was moving at 346 degrees earlier, now about 330.

Watch and wait - that' about all we can do. It's almost too late for evac in the Mobile-Pensacola area.

[rolltide]

It also means it may go right over the top of me instead of the my east.

Keith

[Stephanie]

It also means it may go right over the top of me instead of the my east.

Keith

GET THE HECK OUT OF THERE NOW!!!

[Ziplock]

Keith, where exactly are you in Pensacola? Are you close to the water? Worried about you! This is going to be many times more powerful than Ivan.

Zip

[rockyman]

Looking at the last few images (both sat and radar), the system has definitely picked up more of a westward component...and now these "wobbles" DO make a difference.

Also, the discussion just came out and said that the reason that the track was adjusted east was due to the earlier north movement...which apparently has ended for now...AND that official track is on the EASTERN side of the tightly clustered model consensus...

I'm very worried that this storm will hit in Baldwin County or maybe even at the mouth of Mobile Bay...any thoughts?

[Mac]

It looks to me as though--based upon his current track--Dennis will likely make landfall between Mobile and Pensacola.

This is an amateur observation and should NOT be considered an official forecast!

[rockyman]

Using the old "hold the ruler up to the screen" test...Dennis would come in between Gulf Shores and Fort Morgan...unless it jogs back north, I can't see it passing east of P'cola

THIS IS AN AMATEUR'S OBSERVATIONS, NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST

[mtm4319]

Using the old "hold the ruler up to the screen" test...Dennis would come in between Gulf Shores and Fort Morgan...unless it jogs back north, I can't see it passing east of P'cola

THIS IS AN AMATEUR'S OBSERVATIONS, NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST

[rockyman]

Thanks for the map...that's based on NHC observations...not the "ruler" test...I think the more westward movement started after the last advisory

[HurryKane]

Thanks for the map...that's based on NHC observations...not the "ruler" test...I think the more westward movement started after the last advisory

I'm pretty sure that map is mtm's own creation with the ruler test.

[mtm4319]

That's correct. I think I'll go to radar observations starting soon, though. It appears to be more accurate.

[Mac]

The new IR sat loop is very disturbing. Consistant NW track for a while now. Looks like more than a jog.

[dhweather]

The new IR sat loop is very disturbing. Consistant NW track for a while now. Looks like more than a jog.

Dennis has a long history of wobbling, as most major hurricanes do.

The problem now is, a wobble at landfall can make or break someones
chances. 20-40 miles makes a HUGE difference for Pensacola, for example.

[baitism]

Not to mention that the reds are making a comeback around the center in the last IR shot.

[JQ Public]

any way you slice it pensacola should be getting the worst of it. Looks like it will go west of there if it keeps on this track or if it gains a more westerly component.