98L,TD may be forming

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cycloneye
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#101 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 10, 2005 6:30 am

HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL982005) ON 20050710 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050710 0600 050710 1800 050711 0600 050711 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.9N 40.4W 11.3N 42.9W 11.4N 45.4W 11.4N 47.9W
BAMM 10.9N 40.4W 11.3N 42.6W 11.3N 44.9W 11.4N 47.3W
A98E 10.9N 40.4W 11.4N 43.1W 11.8N 45.7W 12.1N 48.4W
LBAR 10.9N 40.4W 11.5N 42.9W 12.2N 45.5W 13.1N 48.4W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 37KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050712 0600 050713 0600 050714 0600 050715 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.3N 50.6W 11.3N 56.1W 11.8N 61.7W 13.0N 66.9W
BAMM 11.4N 49.8W 11.7N 54.3W 12.4N 58.4W 13.7N 62.3W
A98E 12.0N 50.9W 12.8N 55.7W 13.3N 60.3W 13.8N 65.1W
LBAR 13.7N 51.2W 15.1N 56.8W 16.1N 62.0W 13.0N 65.4W
SHIP 46KTS 58KTS 65KTS 67KTS
DSHP 46KTS 58KTS 65KTS 67KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.9N LONCUR = 40.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 10.7N LONM12 = 37.9W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 10.2N LONM24 = 35.8W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Image

Image

Looks better this morning than on yesterday.

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#102 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 10, 2005 6:45 am

The tropical wave (98L) is looking much better organized than 24 hours ago, and continues showing signs of development with a possible circulation. Thereafter, tropical cyclone formation is possible in the next 48 hours. Of course, after Dennis is set and done!
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#103 Postby jabber » Sun Jul 10, 2005 6:55 am

She does look pretty good today. I bet for a depression later today.
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#104 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Jul 10, 2005 6:58 am

If it was not for Dennis this would be a depression. The quickscats say it has a LLC. Wahoo lets add another name.
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#105 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 10, 2005 7:07 am

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Impressive quickScat of 98.
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#106 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 10, 2005 7:20 am

10/1145 UTC 10.7N 40.9W TOO WEAK 98 -- Atlantic Ocean

The first SSD Sat Estimate for 98.
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#107 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 10, 2005 7:26 am

If this organization trend continues and Dennis goes away, TD 5 will be here shortly!
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#108 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Jul 10, 2005 7:27 am

I'v seen worst be upgraded. I think it has enough oreganizion with that clear LLC on quickscat.
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#109 Postby Stratusxpeye » Sun Jul 10, 2005 7:31 am

HURAKAN wrote:If this organization trend continues and Dennis goes away, TD 5 will be here shortly!


May I ask why dennis would have to go away in order to make this a TD? Is this bc NHC is wayyyy too busy with dennis?
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#110 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 10, 2005 7:31 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I'v seen worst be upgraded. I think it has enough oreganizion with that clear LLC on quickscat.


Until the Dvorak numbers don't show TD intensity they will probably not upgrate it.
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#111 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 10, 2005 7:35 am

Yes T Numbers at least have to be 1.5-2.0 to be a TD.But slowly it will get there.
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#112 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 10, 2005 8:14 am

Image

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL982005) ON 20050710 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050710 1200 050711 0000 050711 1200 050712 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.7N 41.1W 11.0N 43.6W 11.1N 46.2W 11.1N 48.8W
BAMM 10.7N 41.1W 10.9N 43.4W 11.1N 45.9W 11.2N 48.3W
A98E 10.7N 41.1W 11.0N 43.4W 11.4N 45.8W 12.1N 48.3W
LBAR 10.7N 41.1W 11.1N 43.6W 11.9N 46.4W 12.8N 49.3W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 37KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050712 1200 050713 1200 050714 1200 050715 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.1N 51.5W 11.2N 57.3W 12.2N 62.8W 13.9N 68.0W
BAMM 11.4N 50.8W 11.9N 55.7W 13.4N 59.9W 15.6N 64.3W
A98E 12.6N 50.7W 14.3N 55.7W 16.0N 60.6W 18.0N 65.5W
LBAR 13.3N 52.5W 14.3N 58.7W 15.4N 63.7W 18.2N 66.0W
SHIP 45KTS 57KTS 61KTS 64KTS
DSHP 45KTS 57KTS 61KTS 64KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.7N LONCUR = 41.1W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 10.5N LONM12 = 38.9W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 10.3N LONM24 = 36.7W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

LBAR and AE98 hits where I am but of course that will change.
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#113 Postby Duffy » Sun Jul 10, 2005 8:50 am

Looks like we got Emily on the Way and maybe something else behind that coming off Africa? Franklin down the road Perhaps?
Wohooooo keep em comin !!!!!!!
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#114 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 10, 2005 8:52 am

Image
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#115 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Jul 10, 2005 8:52 am

I'm going to start focusing my energy on this one. Wow the one bethind it looks even better.
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#116 Postby Scorpion » Sun Jul 10, 2005 8:53 am

Whats that behind 98? Looks very powerful.
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#117 Postby wxwatcher91 » Sun Jul 10, 2005 8:58 am

The only thing about the one behind 98 is that I think a lot of the convection is associated with the ITCZ... I dunno we'll see
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#118 Postby abajan » Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:02 am

Scorpion wrote:Whats that behind 98? Looks very powerful.

It looks like just an active area of the ITC to me. Pretty normal.

Maybe I'm missing something that others are seeing.
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#119 Postby Duffy » Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:15 am

i read somewhere that Bastardi devolops BOTH Systems
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#120 Postby Guest » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:09 am

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