Category 5?

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #21 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:56 am

The people along the Gulf coast better pray to god that this is not going through a ERC right now because it will be hitting that warm eddie as its coming out of it. In a cat5 will not be out of the quastion.

Stratusxpeye · #22 Postby **Stratusxpeye** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:59 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The people along the Gulf coast better pray to god that this is not going through a ERC right now because it will be hitting that warm eddie as its coming out of it. In a cat5 will not be out of the quastion.

Has there ever been a CAT 5 In august? I know theres never been a landfalling one but has there ever been one that strong in general?

Ixolib · #23 Postby **Ixolib** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:00 am

Stratusxpeye wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The people along the Gulf coast better pray to god that this is not going through a ERC right now because it will be hitting that warm eddie as its coming out of it. In a cat5 will not be out of the quastion.

Has there ever been a CAT 5 In august? I know theres never been a landfalling one but has there ever been one that strong in general?

You meant July, right? DH said if there was this time, it would be historical, so I'm guessing not.

Normandy · #24 Postby **Normandy** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:01 am

I think dennis is already the strongest recorded hurricane in july.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #25 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:02 am

What I'm trying to say if it go's through one now. In when its coming out of it it will be moving over that eddie Ivan hit. So the likely hood of it happening again at landfall will be very low.

Normandy · #26 Postby **Normandy** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:03 am

He may be going through one, his CDO is looking ragged.

Scorpion · #27 Postby **Scorpion** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:05 am

If he goes through one now that is very bad news as landafll is about 16 hours away. Plenty of time to reconsolidate.

Stratusxpeye · #28 Postby **Stratusxpeye** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:07 am

Yeah I meant July Sorry.

Hurricane Cheese · #29 Postby **Hurricane Cheese** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:11 am

Normandy wrote:He may be going through one, his CDO is looking ragged.

Dennis has a tightly wound core, much like Charley had. The problem with that is this storm will have more trouble weakening with this tight core. It's going to take some stronger ingredients in the atmosphere to impact him.

ERC defenitely a possibilty, but if that's occuring now that is not going to be good news as we do have 15-17 hours until landfall.

As always, time will tell with this historic storm....

#30 Postby **Downdraft** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:12 am

Ragged CDO means probable eye wall replacement. That's to be expected.

Normandy · #31 Postby **Normandy** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:12 am

Despite his ragged cdo, that eye still looks stunning.

jkt21787 · #32 Postby **jkt21787** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:15 am

I'm leaning toward ERC. There certainly doesn't appear to be any dry air or shear and its over the warmest waters as we speak.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #33 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:18 am

The warmest water is about 80 to 100 miles to the northwest. If I remember right. Plus the water off the Gulf coast is the warmest it can be. With no Charley or Frances to have cooled it down. People this is no OPAL the enviroment is very favable with much warmer north gulf waters. This is 100 percent different case then that.

Sanibel · #34 Postby **Sanibel** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 2:00 am

Can anybody confirm the recent 158mph flight level wind?

jkt21787 · #35 Postby **jkt21787** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 2:00 am

Sanibel wrote:Can anybody confirm the recent 158mph flight level wind?

It crossed on the recon obs so apparently its true. Maximum 10 second flight level wind reported was 161 mph from what I am hearing now.

Normandy · #36 Postby **Normandy** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 2:01 am

Would the justify 145 mph surface winds, or would a 1 minute flight lvl wind be needed to do so.

knotimpaired · #37 Postby **knotimpaired** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 2:08 am

Sorry, they are still saying 135.

They are also keeping it on it's track to Mobile but I think it will hit about 20 miles to the west.

It is frustrating trying to figure these storm out. It for no reason could shift courses and head east. These storms have no reason to them. They do not even need a front to encourage them.

So at this time it is anyones guess.

Other than mine. Direct hit on Dauphine Island.

Stratusxpeye · #38 Postby **Stratusxpeye** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 2:08 am

Yes they would. 3AM Adv 145MPH 934MB And growing.

knotimpaired · #39 Postby **knotimpaired** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 2:11 am

Strat you are right.

This will be a MAJOR storm. I predict latter 4 to 5.

Help from everyone will be appreciated.

Sanibel · #40 Postby **Sanibel** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 2:24 am

They are saying that should be the peak on CNN

I disagree...

Category 5?

Who is online