00z GEM

#1 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:55 am

Not too much change for Dennis, BUT look at what could be Emily. Look out Miami....and dare I say, New Orleans! Looks an awful lot like Andrew's track (and no I'm not saying it will get to what he was).

#2 Postby **Canelaw99** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:58 am

How does this model usually perform???

#3 Postby **ericinmia** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:59 am

You said "ANDREW"

Hey floridian's Lets go find perdue!

Just kidding...
I'm just in that mode since i feel so bad for the people of the gulf coast right now, and earlier this morning when Cycloneye posted the intial forecast models for 'E' it bothered me seeing it move near Puerto Rico.

One glimmer of hope though, is that most of the long term models, Nogaps, GFS, EURO, are all showing the bermuda high off to the east, allowing this 'E' Storm to move out to sea. We can only hope! :eek:

-Eric

#4 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:01 am

Was absolutely horrid with Dennis up until yesterday (I think), but generally seems to be quite good on the synoptic scale. The 00Z Euro has a very weak low/wave that I would assume comes from the wave that may become Emily a bit further south over Hispaniola and Cuba eventually.

#5 Postby **Canelaw99** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:02 am

ericinmia wrote:
You said "ANDREW"

Hey floridian's Lets go find perdue!

-Eric

LOL - I mentioned it earlier too when someone said that all storms that form that far out become fish. I looked up Andrew's track and it formed in essentially the same vicinity :wink:

#6 Postby **ericinmia** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:08 am

WOW, if this model came to fruitition... (low chance)

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_am ... _0000.html

It would be the TWIN BROTHER of Andrew. It appears that the storm is strong enough that its outflow is supplementing the ridge to the north, and building it west infront of it. As a trough from the east coast is pulling out.

yikes... :eek:

I wouldn't throw many of my marbles in this forecast, but its an interesting addition to the ensemble. But i wonder this, WHY does the candian keep taking these storms into miami! What did we do to them???

#7 Postby **TSmith274** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:18 am

Wouldn't that storm, if it happens, have a difficult time in the Gulf with the upwelling from Dennis?

#8 Postby **ericinmia** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:30 am

TSmith274 wrote:Wouldn't that storm, if it happens, have a difficult time in the Gulf with the upwelling from Dennis?

Definately, since the waters of the gulf aren't that deep, and the latent heat into them isn't very deep.

I need to find my link to the SST map that shows heat depth....

#9 Postby **Canelaw99** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:45 am

ericinmia wrote:WOW, if this model came to fruitition... (low chance)

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_am ... _0000.html

It would be the TWIN BROTHER of Andrew. It appears that the storm is strong enough that its outflow is supplementing the ridge to the north, and building it west infront of it. As a trough from the east coast is pulling out.

yikes...

I wouldn't throw many of my marbles in this forecast, but its an interesting addition to the ensemble. But i wonder this, WHY does the candian keep taking these storms into miami! What did we do to them???

Eric - I don't like that model for this storm - it'd be right over my house :eek:

Let's hope the Canadians forgive us for whatever we did LOL

Website · #10 Postby **Brent** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:47 am

A reference to Andrew is forbidden on this board. :lol:

#11 Postby **jlauderdal** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:50 am

Hey purdue stop that now. We are on a hot streak of missing direct hits.

#12 Postby **ericinmia** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:51 am

Canelaw99 wrote:Eric - I don't like that model for this storm - it'd be right over my house Let's hope the Canadians forgive us for whatever we did LOL

If only we knew what we did we could fix it mabye....

ChaserUK · #13 Postby **ChaserUK** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:53 am

..well if Emily does come to pass I will be there...

#14 Postby **ericinmia** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:54 am

ChaserUK wrote:..well if Emily does come to pass I will be there...

If you come on down we need to have a S2K get together..

donsutherland1 · #15 Postby **donsutherland1** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:54 am

Just a quick note on this possible system. The probability of U.S. landfall could be higher than normal for such systems given correlations with the MJO's phases. Currently, the MJO is in Phase 2 but could evolve to Phase 4 within 6-8 days.

Phase 3:

Notice in Phase 3 troughing over the central Atlantic is neutral. Odds of recurvature are thus falling.

Phase 4:

Notice now the pronounced ridging that stretches across the Atlantic.

The GFS ensembles provide some support for such correlations. Right now, it's a little soon to have a great deal of confidence in such an idea but it certainly is within the realm of possibility that should a storm develop, it could at least threaten the United States.

Weatherboy1 · #16 Postby **Weatherboy1** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:57 am

As a few other posters mentioned briefly, the globals are tracking potential TD5 or some kind of wave toward the Leewards or just north of them, depending on which you look at. NOGAPS through 144 hours brings 5 in at a low latitude for most of the way and then starts turning her more WNW/NW around 60-65W. ECMWF shows a weak low/wave skirting the northern islands and ending up in the vicinity of the N coast of Hispanola at 168 hours. The GFS shows a weak low/wave tracking toward the islands, then moving more WNW north of PR/Hispanola a week out or so, etc.

While it's too early to say what will form (if anything), where exactly it will go, etc., one thing that looks a bit more troubling today than yesterday is that the Bermuda high/Atlantic ridge appears to be re-building to the W over the top of this thing (earlier, it looked like that ridge might be beaten back to the E a bit). That COULD steer anything that is out there toward FL or south of FL into the gulf, rather than allow it to recurve.

As an aside, the models seem to be jumping on the low/wave BEHIND 5 too. But with that one, it looks like a more "fishy" scenario could play out (it would come more WNW across the Atlantic and end up at such a high latitude, that it would head off into the open sea).

The usual caveats: Just an amateur's opinion here, not an official forecast. And this far out, there's really no way to know if this thing will develop and where it will go.

-Mike

#17 Postby **jlauderdal** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 11:02 am

ericinmia wrote:
ChaserUK wrote:..well if Emily does come to pass I will be there...

If you come on down we need to have a S2K get together..

i am just over the intrcoastel at commercial avenue so a walk to lauderdale by the sea is about 10 minutes, 15 minutes in winds out of the east 50 knots or higher

#18 Postby **ericinmia** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 11:09 am

jlauderdal wrote:
ericinmia wrote:
ChaserUK wrote:..well if Emily does come to pass I will be there...

If you come on down we need to have a S2K get together..

i am just over the intrcoastel at commercial avenue so a walk to lauderdale by the sea is about 10 minutes, 15 minutes in winds out of the east 50 knots or higher

Sounds like fun... I just hope this would be a cat2 at max... if its coming this way, or it looses the fun aspect pretty quickly.
-Eric

cajungal · #19 Postby **cajungal** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 3:43 pm

How could they possibly know that this far out? It has not even reached the islands yet. This is insane! You would have to be a psychic like Miss Cleo to know that this far in advance. Let's just get Dennis out of our hair first.

#20 Postby **HeatherAKC** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 3:48 pm

The kiss of death was yesterday when Norcross mentioned the wave and said it was expected to head north out to sea. He said that about Andrew when he was a TD. I have it on tape....

Seriously, It's just too far away to worry about. I hope all of our panhandle friends are doing well!

00z GEM

00z GEM

Re: 00z GEM

lots of time to watch and see what happens

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