00z NAM..........

[tw861]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... ex_l.shtml

Is almost identical to the 18z. Not a good picture for LA/MS.

[dhweather]

Boy, that's not. But I don't know that the NAM has much credibility
for Dennis.

[cinlfla]

I was thinking the models probably have a really good handle on Dennis at this point, I'm just an amateur though I may be wrong. There is no doubt someone in the northern Gulf is fixin to get it. I would be haulin but if I hadn't already.

[tw861]

Boy, that's not. But I don't know that the NAM has much credibility
for Dennis.

Well, I don't know either, but it's my understanding the its a higher resoulution model that doesn't do well in the deep tropics since that is out of it's domain but i does get more accurate "closer in ".

[deltadog03]

i was about to comment on this...anyway, this would be crazy if this verfies...don't know if it will...jb, said tonight, that it could be onto something cuz, its a higher res model...even the GFDL has pushed a little west

[LSU2001]

If I was looking at the right model thats almost exactly like a Camile impact.
TIm

[BamaMan]

That would be awful for all on the Ms coast, and bad for us here on the North - Northeast side. It looks like all of us are in for a very bad time.

[Nimbus]

Maybe a steering ridge amplification is beginning to tweak the models left again?

[deltadog03]

it may be...that ridge over ky is pushing south...

[PurdueWx80]

06z NAM still shows major threat for New Orleans out of this. For what it's worth, the 13-km Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model is pretty similar to what the NAM has, but only goes out to 12 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_018l.gif

[rtd2]

06z NAM still shows major threat for New Orleans out of this. For what it's worth, the 13-km Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model is pretty similar to what the NAM has, but only goes out to 12 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_018l.gif

Purdue I SOOO Glad you are here at this Late Hr. I'm getting Several different reads On local mets in Nola and Biloxi....One group says Dennis is Actually Pushing against High Hard and Will Pinch it Near L/F =P'cola other Group is Calling For a General NW with A NNW heading here and There and L/F Biloxi to Gulf shores....Thoughts? Also Do you think we will See and ERC soon and Would that allow Change in Headidng? Thanks Again!

[PurdueWx80]

06z NAM still shows major threat for New Orleans out of this. For what it's worth, the 13-km Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model is pretty similar to what the NAM has, but only goes out to 12 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_018l.gif

Purdue I SOOO Glad you are here at this Late Hr. I'm getting Several different reads On local mets in Nola and Biloxi....One group says Dennis is Actually Pushing against High Hard and Will Pinch it Near L/F =P'cola other Group is Calling For a General NW with A NNW heading here and There and L/F Biloxi to Gulf shores....Thoughts? Also Do you think we will See and ERC soon and Would that allow Change in Headidng? Thanks Again!

Biloxi/Gulf Shores seems more likely to me...has all along to be honest. Still worried the ridge could allow the storm to come even further west, but most of the worry has to do with the fact that many people are still in N'awlins because they are "only" under a TS Warning. Anyway, this looks to be a MS storm the way I see it.

I don't think there is any way Dennis will be a cat5 at landfall, and I even think a cat4 is pushing it - Cindy had to have cooled those waters off which means the storm should be weakening upon landfall. Still a 3/4 is nothing to fool around with, and the surge will be tremendous, particularly in bays (Mobile especially).

[rtd2]

06z NAM still shows major threat for New Orleans out of this. For what it's worth, the 13-km Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model is pretty similar to what the NAM has, but only goes out to 12 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_018l.gif

Purdue I SOOO Glad you are here at this Late Hr. I'm getting Several different reads On local mets in Nola and Biloxi....One group says Dennis is Actually Pushing against High Hard and Will Pinch it Near L/F =P'cola other Group is Calling For a General NW with A NNW heading here and There and L/F Biloxi to Gulf shores....Thoughts? Also Do you think we will See and ERC soon and Would that allow Change in Headidng? Thanks Again!

Biloxi/Gulf Shores seems more likely to me...has all along to be honest. Still worried the ridge could allow the storm to come even further west, but most of the worry has to do with the fact that many people are still in N'awlins because they are "only" under a TS Warning. Anyway, this looks to be a MS storm the way I see it.

I don't think there is any way Dennis will be a cat5 at landfall, and I even think a cat4 is pushing it - Cindy had to have cooled those waters off which means the storm should be weakening upon landfall. Still a 3/4 is nothing to fool around with, and the surge will be tremendous, particularly in bays (Mobile especially).

Purdue I appreciate and Respect your Thoughts! I too agree on NO cat 5! Moon and the stars and Planets arent in the right Alignment~ Takes PERFECT conditions as you well know! I admit you have been consistant and Thats why I neede More info..I now you are Busy But I may Asked a Few more ? 's later! as I have Family in Pascagoula! NHC seems VERY concerned about That area-Mobile! in earlier discussions...Guess we will see what 5am brings...Thanks again!