Track reasoning...stronger=westward?

[tim_in_ga]

A general rule of thumb would be that the stronger the storm gets the lower the level it will be steered by.
-Eric

Earlier someone said the stronger a storm gets, the higher the tops get, thus the more effect by higher steering currents. What you are saying is contrary to that. I'm confused, but that's nothing new.

[cinlfla]

The main thing that will steer this storm is that ridge off to its east-northeast. Depending on the orginization of the storm and how it is comprised... it will be steered by different levels... All levels matter, but the lower leves of 200mb, 300mb, 400mb, 500mb are the most important. A general rule of thumb would be that the stronger the storm gets the lower the level it will be steered by. Cat 3 storms and up are most effected by currents in the 200-350mb range.

I did not know this Thank You for posting this information

[deltadog03]

ok...another question....why does the NHC think this will recurve north or even NNW?? i don't see it...i thought maybe the ULL near tx...but, appears that is weakening and leaving?? any thoughts?

[birdwomn]

Hey Eric, you rock! Thanks for the concise explanation.

[ericinmia]

Here are the links to some resources:

Here is a link to the CIMSS Steering flow maps:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm5.html

here is a link to the winds:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8wvir.html
"notice the color scheme"