Headings/Angles for Coastal Impact (10am Central update)

[mtm4319]

I've plotted some of the lat/long numbers for different points near where Dennis could impact. From this, I can use the current motion and angle to determine what angle Dennis would need to take from this point forward to reach the coast at any of these positions.

The ones I'm using:
Lat N Long W Location
29.00 89.15 Mouth of Mississippi River, LA
30.18 89.57 Mouth of Pearl River, MS
30.37 89.09 Gulfport, MS
30.39 88.89 Biloxi, MS
30.34 88.55 Pascagoula, MS
30.39 88.40 MS/AL state line
30.25 88.08 Fort Gaines (east end of Dauphin Island)
30.25 87.69 Gulf Shores (Ivan impact point)
30.28 87.52 AL/FL state line
30.35 87.04 Pensacola Beach, FL
30.40 86.60 Fort Walton Beach, FL
30.39 86.50 Destin, FL

As of 2pm Central time, the 6-hour motion of Dennis was 1.1 degrees North and 0.9 degrees West (a heading of 320.7 degrees). The position of Dennis as of 2pm Central time was 25.5 N and 84.4 W.

Here is the average heading Dennis would need to take from now (2pm Central time) on in order to reach the coast at the positions listed above:

317.4 Biloxi, MS
319.4 Pascagoula, MS
320.7 MS/AL state line
322.2 Fort Gaines, AL
325.3 Gulf Shores, AL
326.9 AL/FL state line
331.4 Pensacola Beach, FL
335.8 Fort Walton Beach, FL
336.8 Destin, FL

Keep in mind, a NNW (or 330-degree heading) is expected to gradually occur overnight.

[HurryKane]

Good job, you!

[goodlife]

WOW...GREAT POST and GREAT IDEA!!

[mtm4319]

3pm Central time update

Heh. As soon as I posted that, the 3pm Central position estimate came up, so I'll update the numbers.

As of 3pm Central time, the 6-hour motion of Dennis was 1.2 degrees North and 1.0 degrees West (a heading of 320.2 degrees). The position of Dennis as of 2pm Central time was 25.7 N and 84.6 W.

Here is the average heading Dennis would need to take from now (3pm Central time) on in order to reach the coast at the positions listed above:

317.6 Biloxi, MS
319.6 Pascagoula, MS
321.0 MS/AL state line
322.6 Fort Gaines, AL
325.8 Gulf Shores, AL
327.5 AL/FL state line
332.3 Pensacola Beach, FL
336.9 Fort Walton Beach, FL
337.9 Destin, FL

Keep in mind, a NNW (or 330-degree heading) is expected to gradually occur overnight.

[mtm4319]

4pm Central time update

Same as 3pm update, since the 4pm advisory uses the 3pm position estimate.

The current 6-hour heading, if sustained until landfall, would take Dennis ashore between Pascagoula and the MS/AL state line.

[HurryKane]

4pm Central time update

Same as 3pm update, since the 4pm advisory uses the 3pm position estimate.

The current 6-hour heading, if sustained until landfall, would take Dennis ashore between Pascagoula and the MS/AL state line.

I really can't thank you enough for putting the data in this format. It's fantastic.

[mtm4319]

No problem. It's very easy to update the positions in Microsoft Excel, so it's no real hassle.

[HurryKane]

No problem. It's very easy to update the positions in Microsoft Excel, so it's no real hassle.

Even if the production is easy--the idea is great.

[mvtrucking]

Thanks mtm4319 for posting that. Makes for easy reference.

[Betrock]

Well done, you!
Spectacular idea!!

[Lowpressure]

Very nice work. Takes out the guess work, at least on this issue.

[dhweather]

I've plotted some of the lat/long numbers for different points near where Dennis could impact. From this, I can use the current motion and angle to determine what angle Dennis would need to take from this point forward to reach the coast at any of these positions.

The ones I'm using:
Lat N Long W Location
30.39 88.89 Biloxi, MS
30.34 88.55 Pascagoula, MS
30.39 88.40 MS/AL state line
30.25 88.08 Fort Gaines (east end of Dauphin Island)
30.25 87.69 Gulf Shores (Ivan impact point)
30.28 87.52 AL/FL state line
30.35 87.04 Pensacola Beach, FL
30.40 86.60 Fort Walton Beach, FL
30.39 86.50 Destin, FL

As of 2pm Central time, the 6-hour motion of Dennis was 1.1 degrees North and 0.9 degrees West (a heading of 320.7 degrees). The position of Dennis as of 2pm Central time was 25.5 N and 84.4 W.

Here is the average heading Dennis would need to take from now (2pm Central time) on in order to reach the coast at the positions listed above:

317.4 Biloxi, MS
319.4 Pascagoula, MS
320.7 MS/AL state line
322.2 Fort Gaines, AL
325.3 Gulf Shores, AL
326.9 AL/FL state line
331.4 Pensacola Beach, FL
335.8 Fort Walton Beach, FL
336.8 Destin, FL

Keep in mind, a NNW (or 330-degree heading) is expected to gradually occur overnight.

You must have one of them fancy slide-rules or something.

That's a GREAT post and format - kudos!!!!

[mtm4319]

5pm Central time update: Slightly more west

As of 5pm Central time, the 7-hour motion of Dennis (I don't have an 11am Central position) was 1.2 degrees North and 1.1 degrees West (a heading of 317.5 degrees). The position of Dennis as of 5pm Central time was 25.9 N and 84.9 W.

Here is the average heading Dennis would need to take from now (5pm Central time) on in order to reach the coast at the positions listed above:

306.1 Mouth of Mississippi River
312.5 Mouth of Pearl River
316.9 Gulfport, MS
318.4 Biloxi, MS
320.6 Pascagoula, MS
322.1 MS/AL state line
323.8 Fort Gaines, AL
327.3 Gulf Shores, AL
329.1 AL/FL state line
334.3 Pensacola Beach, FL
339.3 Fort Walton Beach, FL
340.4 Destin, FL

The current 7-hour heading, if sustained until landfall, would take Dennis ashore between Gulfport and Biloxi, MS.

Keep in mind, a NNW (or 330-degree heading) is expected to gradually occur overnight.

[Brent]

Yikes. Great work...

[logybogy]

You need to add the heading for New Orleans too cause right now a 317 heading is west of Biloxi.

[NewOrleans]

mtm...you are probably one of the most interesting posters I have seen on this baord, as I understand completely your math comparisons. It is simple enough for anyone to comprehend as opposed to the very general terms of direction; NW, NNW, WNW, NE, NNE, ENE...etc. You are marking it out precisely, which we should all understand.

[Brent]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=67164

on the current heading, it hits NO from the east and kills hundreds of thousands as the city was not evacuated. Still expecting a turn... but I am very nervous until it does turn as the stakes are so high

This better turn or things will hit the fan.

[mtm4319]

I've added headings for the mouth of the Mississippi, mouth of the Pearl, and Gulfport to my 5pm update.

[wx247]

This is spectacular and is something that is going to be an increasingly valuable tool over the next 12 hours! Thank you!

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Hoping you did the math correctly, and used the proper variable distances between longitude, since the earth is indeed a sphere. Not gonna do the math myself to verify, just hope you did it right!