Is Dennis Disregarding The Trough?

[Sean in New Orleans]

I'm watching closely like all of us are along the Gulf Coast...my question: Is Dennis disregarding the trough, and creating his own atmosphere with the powerful high pressure above him? It almost appears that Dennis is simply pushing the trough West. Dennis really needs to slow down to make more of a turn to the N, IMO. These big, powerful storms really get momentum and they tend to not turn as easily as the smaller storms, I've learned in the past.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[skysummit]

I saw that too. It seems like he's pushing that trough out the way. I don't want to wish this on anyone, but he really needs to start turning soon. It's too late to start evacuating New Orleans.

[gkrangers]

Well if he's disregarding the trough, you are in deep poop.

[deltadog03]

i really think so...that trof tries but, dennis kills anything pushing his way.

i meant trof sorry...dennis is killing the trof..hey nam might be onto something

[AL Chili Pepper]

N.O. had better hope that NNW turn comes.

[Sean in New Orleans]

i really think so...that ridge tries but, dennis kills anything pushing his way

Well, there is a VERY powerful High pressure on top of Dennis. The system created that high in the last couple of days when it exploded and it is right with the system barrelling throught the atmosphere...

[mikey mike]

I see the same thing Sean.Dennis is just bulldozing it out the way.

[feederband]

I'm watching closely like all of us are along the Gulf Coast...my question: Is Dennis disregarding the trough, and creating his own atmosphere with the powerful high pressure above him? It almost appears that Dennis is simply pushing the trough West. Dennis really needs to slow down to make more of a turn to the N, IMO. These big, powerful storms really get momentum and they tend to not turn as easily as the smaller storms, I've learned in the past.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[crazycajuncane]

Now this is what we didn't bargain for. I really have been having a weird feeling about Dennis the last 24 hours. Something is telling me to keep a very close eye on him. I just want to see that North turn coming soon, before people in New Orleans start to panic and some try to get out.

[JTD]

Well if he's disregarding the trough, you are in deep Number 2.

Indeed. If this thing made a suprise turn and affected New Orleans, now....major congressional hearings would be a certainty and MANY people would lose their jobs due to the thousands of deaths (assuming it is intensifying and continued to do so to a New Orleans landfall)

[lapeym]

Yeah, I saw that on the WV loop and to my pucker factor is thru the roof. But at its current motion, it would go into MS so NOLA would get Georges type conditions which we can take.

Just turn away Dennis. Nothing to see here.

[Brent]

From Jackson, MS AFD:

NOTE HOWEVER: ANY WWD SHIFT OF THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK WILL BRING
BIG TIME PROBLEMS WITH POTENTIAL WIND DAMAGE...TORNADOES AND GREATER
RAINFALL TO ERN AND POTENTIALLY CENTRAL MS. A FEW MODELS STILL TRY
TO BRING DENNIS INTO THE MS COAST AND POSSIBLY AS FAR AS THE MOUTH OF
THE MS RIVER. THIS IS NOT TO BE TAKEN LIGHTLY(correct wording) AND ALL INTEREST SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION.

[skysummit]

Now this is what we didn't bargain for. I really have been having a weird feeling about Dennis the last 24 hours. Something is telling me to keep a very close eye on him. I just want to see that North turn coming soon, before people in New Orleans start to panic and some try to get out.

It's too late to get out. Because of what our local mets have been saying about Dennis not being a threat to us, they're probably not really paying attention any longer. Most are probably enjoying their Saturday. Now, what if the northern turn doesn't take place and people wake up tomorrow to a Category 3 Hurricane heading toward the mouth of the Mississippi? Talk about MASS PANIC! Hopefully JB is wrong and he begins his turn soon.

[duris]

I have faith in the NHC and our local mets and am totally uneducated sort of what I read here, but I don't like two things. Been out by the pool all day, and we don't seem to have been getting SW winds, winds have been more from the ESE, and clouds are moving east. And the really stupid second thing? No birds. We usually have green parrots, blue jays, mockingbirds, even a hawk around. Nobody home. Hope they don't know something we don't.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Well, all I know is that I took a break today and rented a movie from "In Demand." I really didn't look at the system too much this afternoon, but, my phone rang and it was my Mother. They are native New Orleanians who live over in St. Bernard Parish. My Mother raised the concern that it appears the system is heading straight towards her. I told her that a turn would occur tonight and she said the she's getting a little worried because it's moving so fast straight towards us. I told her I would look at it after my movie was over. I'm still relaxed, but, I have to admit, my eyebrow is beginning to raise. This hurricane is like most of them....you can't let your guard down until it is dead over land...

[skysummit]

I have faith in the NHC and our local mets and am totally uneducated sort of what I read here, but I don't like two things. Been out by the pool all day, and we don't seem to have been getting SW winds, winds have been more from the ESE, and clouds are moving east. And the really stupid second thing? No birds. We usually have green parrots, blue jays, mockingbirds, even a hawk around. Nobody home. Hope they don't know something we don't.

Hey....you know what? They're are no birds here either. They're usually chirping away around the yards where I live, but now that you mention it, there's not a single bird.

[PurdueWx80]

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=3

To me, this says it all. The shortwave ridge ahead of the upper low just south of Houston is building north and west. The northern Plains ridge is bridging the gap with the west Atlantic ridge - and we have some serious track issues to deal with if my eyes aren't deceiving me. If the WNW motion mentioned by Mr. Stewart over the last 2 hours continues, the height rises behind Cindy and ahead of the upper low will have won out. I think the NHC is right on here, and with almost all model support saying I'm crazy, I should just shut my mouth. But, I'm particularly worried because if this storm does continue WNW, the non-evacuated New Orleans residents are in a heap of trouble.

Just look at the moisture over MS and LA moving to the NNW. Ridge. Building. Will it win out?

[duris]

I have faith in the NHC and our local mets and am totally uneducated sort of what I read here, but I don't like two things. Been out by the pool all day, and we don't seem to have been getting SW winds, winds have been more from the ESE, and clouds are moving east. And the really stupid second thing? No birds. We usually have green parrots, blue jays, mockingbirds, even a hawk around. Nobody home. Hope they don't know something we don't.

Hey....you know what? They're are no birds here either. They're usually chirping away around the yards where I live, but now that you mention it, there's not a single bird.

Yeah, but what are the gators doing down your way?

[crazycajuncane]

I have faith in the NHC and our local mets and am totally uneducated sort of what I read here, but I don't like two things. Been out by the pool all day, and we don't seem to have been getting SW winds, winds have been more from the ESE, and clouds are moving east. And the really stupid second thing? No birds. We usually have green parrots, blue jays, mockingbirds, even a hawk around. Nobody home. Hope they don't know something we don't.

I've heard stories about this. A security guard in Florida told me that is how it got a day before the storm hit. All the birds flew away. Scary

[Ixolib]

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20050709&endTime=-1&duration=3

To me, this says it all. The shortwave ridge ahead of the upper low just south of Houston is building north and west. The northern Plains ridge is bridging the gap with the west Atlantic ridge - and we have some serious track issues to deal with if my eyes aren't deceiving me. If the WNW motion mentioned by Mr. Stewart over the last 2 hours continues, the height rises behind Cindy and ahead of the upper low will have won out. I think the NHC is right on here, and with almost all model support saying I'm crazy, I should just shut my mouth. But, I'm particularly worried because if this storm does continue WNW, the non-evacuated New Orleans residents are in a heap of trouble.

Just look at the moisture over MS and LA moving to the NNW. Ridge. Building. Will it win out?

Considering the big **IF**, are you raising the possibility of a N.O. hit, or are you considering the possibility of a hit further west than the current NHC forecast?