MS Gulf Coast

[bfez1]

From WWL-TV in New Orleans:


I will be writing a more extenisve discussion following the 4pm advisory. The headline is that the 12z and 18z models have done a major shift to the Mississippi Gulf Coast. There is still lots of time for a more northerly turn, and I would not read too much into it.

HOWEVER, the important message is that the Mississippi Gulf Coast is under a HURRICANE WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING means that hurricane conditions WILL HAPPEN in 24 hours or less. So, all residents of Hancock, Harrison and Jackson counties should rush to completion their hurricane plans.

If you extrapolate the current track, it would yield a landfall tomorrow at Gulfport, Mississippi.

Again, I will wait to look at the Hurricane Center advisory at 4pm before making too many other comments.

JUST IN

Latest vortex message shows pressure is down another 4mb, so this is likely on its way to returning to Category 3 status.



David Bernard
Meteorologist
WWL-TV
1024 North Rampart Street
New Orleans, LA 70116

[gatorcane]

From the 3pm NHC advisory:

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

Expect the turn over the next 24 hours that should keep it on the forecasted track

[lilbump3000]

Well when the NNW motion occur then it will occur but until then that does not show any signs of happening right now.

[deltadog03]

from what....what is going to turn it??
not the ULL....that thing is getting destroyed....look at the gust fronts that try to push east towards LA...they are getting shot down like the gun range

[Brent]

It better get turning because it's on a beeline for the MS coast right now... dare I even say New Orleans(or just barely east of there).

I think it will turn slightly but come in around Pascagoula... this is a pretty big shift left from my thinking this morning.

[Stormcenter]

From the 3pm NHC advisory:

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

Expect the turn over the next 24 hours that should keep it on the forecasted track

The key words there are "expect" and "should" but so far it hasn't happened. I still have confidence in their track except that it may be more closer to AL than FL. IMO.

[rtd2]

from what....what is going to turn it??
not the ULL....that thing is getting destroyed....look at the gust fronts that try to push east towards LA...they are getting shot down like the gun range

agreed...ONLY thing that COULD turn if is **IF** Tthe high lifts a bit

[gatorcane]

from what....what is going to turn it??
not the ULL....that thing is getting destroyed....look at the gust fronts that try to push east towards LA...they are getting shot down like the gun range

The reliable models are in good agreement about this turn right now.

[gatorcane]

Also an NHC conference call ended recently and there is very little or no change expected in the forecast track.