Did Anybody Catch This in the 3pm NHC advisory?

[gatorcane]

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

Looking at the forecast track from 11:00am, you don't see this gradual turn. Does this imply they will be shifting the track at the 5pm advisory for a FL panhandle hit?

[gatorcane]

latest NHC track:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/150306.shtml?3day

[mtm4319]

That NHC track looks around 325 to me.

[jkt21787]

Conference call just wrapped up. there will be LITTLE OR NO change in the forecast track.

[Brent]

Conference call just wrapped up. there will be LITTLE OR NO change in the forecast track.

Any mention of intensity at 5pm???

[jkt21787]

Conference call just wrapped up. there will be LITTLE OR NO change in the forecast track.

Any mention of intensity at 5pm???

Its on Spann's blog. Says no deviation to the forecast path...this is strange though, forecast intensity "100-105 mph, possibly higher"

I'm assuming 100 mph at the new adv.

[Stormcenter]

Conference call just wrapped up. there will be LITTLE OR NO change in the forecast track.

You were there?

[jkt21787]

Conference call just wrapped up. there will be LITTLE OR NO change in the forecast track.

You were there?

No, again this is on James Spann's blog.

[Brent]

Conference call just wrapped up. there will be LITTLE OR NO change in the forecast track.

Any mention of intensity at 5pm???

Its on Spann's blog. Says no deviation to the forecast path...this is strange though, forecast intensity "100-105 mph, possibly higher"

I'm assuming 100 mph at the new adv.

They probably are waiting for last minute recon data or debating... the pressure drop is too big to not increase the winds slightly. Otherwise, if you increase it dramatically on one advisory, people will freak out thinking it's pulling a Charley(intensity not track).

[Stormcenter]

Conference call just wrapped up. there will be LITTLE OR NO change in the forecast track.

Where is the "little", east or west?

[Stormcenter]

Conference call just wrapped up. there will be LITTLE OR NO change in the forecast track.

You were there?

No, again this is on James Spann's blog.

Oh I'm sorry I didn't catch that.

[jkt21787]

Conference call just wrapped up. there will be LITTLE OR NO change in the forecast track.

Where is the "little", east or west?

I'm only reading his comments. He said all models deemed reliable by NHC are between Mobile Bay and 60 miles east of there, so certainly landfall will likely be there between there on the path.

Again, there may be some slight shifts, either way, but nothing big.

[HurryKane]

Is this the blog you're talking about?

http://www.jamesspann.com/bmachine/wxtalk.php

[jkt21787]

Is this the blog you're talking about?

http://www.jamesspann.com/bmachine/wxtalk.php

yep sure is.

60 miles east of Mobile Bay is only to Eglin AFB, just east of Pensacola.
This is amazingly close.

[Swimdude]

What was the pressure at 11 a.m., 1 p.m., and 3 p.m.?

[hurricanefloyd5]

pressure now is 958 i think now

[AL Chili Pepper]

From the 5pm Public Advisory:
Maximum sustained winds recently reported by an Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft were near 105 mph...with higher gusts.
Dennis is a strong category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours...and Dennis will become a category 3 hurricane again later
tonight or early Sunday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 40 miles... 65 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 175 miles...280 km.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by a NOAA hurricane
hunter research aircraft was 955 mb...28.20 inches.

Wow....I guess they're pretty sure of that. Will become a Cat III. Don't know if I've ever seen a statement like that.