12z UKMET - Mobile Bay...

[Steve]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[goodlife]

is that a change at all from 00Z run?

[Lowpressure]

Mobile looks as much a target as possible right now. I am still sticking as original posted days ago on landfall thread, Ocean Springs to Pensacola.

[Steve]

Yeah. It's a hair to the right. Best I could tell was 00z was 25-30 miles west of there. Interesting thing about the UKMET is I think that's what's going to end up breaking Bastardi's forecast. The UKMET's earlier insistance of landfall west of New Orleans, as well as certain verification points on its track must have convinced him to go you-know-whats to the wall with the Mouth of the River call. Under the assumption that he will be wrong, he probably should have backed off when the model's trend was more eastward and after the upper data came in on the LA/TX trough. I saw him win following the UKMET's call of Ivan's reemergence off the Atlantic Cost, trek SE, S, SW and loop back into the Gulf. And I realize that he doesn't always follow that model. But I guess to paraphrase an old saying, live by the UKMET, die by the UKMET.

FWIW, I think the UKMET is probably pretty on with landfall. The 12Z European should be available any minute. It's one of the last globals that needs to move out of Mississippi in order for them to come into agreement.

Steve

[goodlife]

I read somewhere else that Bastardi has changed his forecast.....didn't read the details though.

[rtd2]

I read somewhere else that Bastardi has changed his forecast.....didn't read the details though.

To sum it up he said Just west Of NHC's L/F point