Dennis: thoughts and forecast

[MGC]

The following post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institutions including Storm2k.org. For official information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Hurricane Dennis currently a strong category 2 hurricane that is rapidly intensifying, passing just north of Jamaica this afternoon. I expect Dennis to continue to intensify and reach Cat 3 before landfall in Cuba near Cienfuegos Province in south central Cuba. If Dennis takes a slightly more eastward track into Sancti Spiritus Province, Dennis will traverse more rugged terrain. Since Dennis will be traversing Cuba at a oblique angle, Dennis will spend several hours over Cuba weakning to a Cat 1 hurricane when he emerges into the southern Gulf of Mexico north of Havana. Dennis will pass close to Key West and hurricane warnings should be issued for the entire length of the Keys. Once over the open waters of the GOM, Dennis should slowly reintensify and trend poleward around the edge of the Bermuda ridge. I expect landfall on the Florida Panhandle between Pensacola and Panama City as a 120mph Cat 3.......MGC

[feederband]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think that this storm is bombing again right now. I expect landfall on Cuba Tomarrow Afternoon as a cat4=135 mph hurricane with pressures down to 936 millibars to 941 millibars. This will be moving over 90 degree water with low wind shear/favable upper level enviroment. Then it will move across Cuba. Over land for about 6 to 8 hours(Its moving at 15 mph) weaken to a weak cat3...115 mph. Move back into the Gulf in which case it will turn north-northwestward. Then around 25 north a curve to the north. In which most of the hurricane models show. This storm should gain its cat4 back 135 mph as its making landfall around 84 to 86 west.


This is a unoffical forecast.

Review of forecast 7/10

Darn it I would of never thought it would of gotten to 155 mph south of Cuba. In Pressure with in forecasted at the time. Also I never thought it would move westward through central cuba. But I was right about the storm turning northward after it made it off Cuba. Also right about this system regaining cat4...A little on the low side yes. I was a fool for expecting this storm to make landfall as one. Should of remembered those cold waters at the coast.

[N2Storms]

.LONG TERM (SUN-THU)...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF DENNIS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FASTER IN BRINGING
DENNIS INTO THE GULF, WHICH IS UNFORTUNATE FOR US BECAUSE THERE WILL
STILL BE WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS TROUGHING MAY PULL
THE STORM MORE NORTHWARD THAN NORTHWESTWARD, BEFORE THE RIDGING HAS A
CHANCE TO DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SCENARIO POSES A
GREATER DANGER TO OUR FORECAST AREA AS DENNIS MAY MAKE LANDFALL NOT
FAR TO OUR WEST (OR PERHAPS IN OUR AREA). DENNIS WILL LIKELY BE A
LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF IT. WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE 12 UTC GFS,
00 UTC MEX MOS, AND LATEST WAVE WATCH AND NHC GUIDANCE FOR THE
EXTENDED PACKAGE. BY TUESDAY WE WILL PROBABLY RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
[b][/b]

[Anonymous]

If it hits Cuba at the 135-140 mph I think ti will, it will still be atleast 125 mph when it leaves.

[MGC]

Saturday afternoon update: Dennis still on track for panhandle landfall. Confidence is high this afternoon that Dennis will landfall somewhere in the Florida Panhandle. I nailed landfall along the Cuban coast, but was one Cat short on intensity. As predicted Dennis exited Cuba as a cat 1 hurricane. Considering downgrading Dennis' intensity slightly at landfall but will make that call later as Dennis appears to be becoming better organized on both radar and satellite.......MGC

[gkrangers]

If it hits Cuba at the 135-140 mph I think ti will, it will still be atleast 125 mph when it leaves.

-1 to Naso.

[MGC]

As forecast Dennis made landfall near Pensacola Florida as a 120mph Cat 3 hurricane. I am 3 for 3 this season forecasting TC landfall locations.....MGC

[Innotech]

I predicted a Mobile Bay to Gulf shores hit at Cat 2. looksl ike I was off.

[cinlfla]

Wow!!! You were right on with Dennis

[mvtrucking]

Nice work MGC