More West Track???
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The only way I see this happening is if the storm slows its forward motion.
I agree the trough looks like it would lift out and the high to the northeast may amplify given time.
The current beeline NW track with some normal recurve takes the storm in near Mobile as per NHC forecast.
The NAM scenario would mean a Tuesday landfall.
I agree the trough looks like it would lift out and the high to the northeast may amplify given time.
The current beeline NW track with some normal recurve takes the storm in near Mobile as per NHC forecast.
The NAM scenario would mean a Tuesday landfall.
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No watches here...plus our local mets say there's no chance of Dennis coming this way. So there you go. Business as usual 
cajungal wrote:I live just southwest of the city of New Orleans. And we are not even under a Tropical Storm watch here. So, I am not worried. The furthest west I think it will go is the MS/Al border.
Given this graphic, I don't see what you are basing your statement that you are not under a tropical storm warning on.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... shtml?3day
And given this graphic,
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... shtml?prob
I think you folks should wake up and pay attention to the folks at NHC who put out these warnings. Cindy was just a TS at a quarter million people lost power. This still has the potentiol to be worse for you. It likely will not affect you, but don't assume that.
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skysummit
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patsmsg wrote:cajungal wrote:I live just southwest of the city of New Orleans. And we are not even under a Tropical Storm watch here. So, I am not worried. The furthest west I think it will go is the MS/Al border.
Given this graphic, I don't see what you are basing your statement that you are not under a tropical storm warning on.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... shtml?3day
And given this graphic,
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... shtml?prob
I think you folks should wake up and pay attention to the folks at NHC who put out these warnings. Cindy was just a TS at a quarter million people lost power. This still has the potentiol to be worse for you. It likely will not affect you, but don't assume that.
I think you should maybe know where the individual is posting from before you make a statement like that. The 3 that mentioned this, including me, are NOT under watches or warnings. We are just WEST of the watche area. Believe me, we do know what's going on.
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Nimbus wrote:The only way I see this happening is if the storm slows its forward motion.
I agree the trough looks like it would lift out and the high to the northeast may amplify given time.
The current beeline NW track with some normal recurve takes the storm in near Mobile as per NHC forecast.
The NAM scenario would mean a Tuesday landfall.
There will not be a Tuesday landfall for this storm. It'll still be Sunday.
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MSRobi911
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Lindaloo wrote:Regardless of where the model plots are, the fact remains there are alot of us under a Hurricane Warning. Anytime you are under a warning you should make preps for a landfalling hurricane whether it is projected to make landfall in your neck of the woods or not. Ivan should be a perfect example and also Charley.
For those on the MS Gulf Coast, Georges is another example.
We can add Elena to that list for the MS Coast....its coming here, no its going to Florida..people left for Labor Day weekend, then Uk Oh....its coming to Pascagoula again!!!!!
It ain't over till the fat lady sings!! or she/he goes ashore
Mary
PS no I don't want it, far from it..let it go elsewhere but folks need to pay attention!
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Pat,
We're under the warning in the eastern Parishes but those guys are west or southwest of us. Chances are (based on the presentation of Dennis), there will be a feeder band or two coming through. That obviously means the potential for gusty winds, tornados and brief heavy rains.
As for Georges, let me tell everyone that it was far different in New Orleans than it was anywhere else in LA. We had widespread power outages. Some of that had to do with the drought conditions that preceeded Georges and the limbs on the trees that ordinarilly would have fallen in thunderstorms if we would have had any were falling all over power lines. The north winds destroyed all but the last 6 or 7 camps on the southshore of Lake Pontchartrain, Brunnings Restaurant and flooded the airport. We only got .25" of rain but we got the winds. We also got some pretty gusty winds for Ivan. I think our effects here won't amount to even half of what we saw Monday night with Cindy, but don't let your guard down. You never know when a tornado is going to pop in a feeder band, so there still could be problems here even with a FL landfall. I realize I'm preaching to the choir here because everyone already knows this stuff, but the way the mets and officials are playing it off completely is a trip.
Steve
We're under the warning in the eastern Parishes but those guys are west or southwest of us. Chances are (based on the presentation of Dennis), there will be a feeder band or two coming through. That obviously means the potential for gusty winds, tornados and brief heavy rains.
As for Georges, let me tell everyone that it was far different in New Orleans than it was anywhere else in LA. We had widespread power outages. Some of that had to do with the drought conditions that preceeded Georges and the limbs on the trees that ordinarilly would have fallen in thunderstorms if we would have had any were falling all over power lines. The north winds destroyed all but the last 6 or 7 camps on the southshore of Lake Pontchartrain, Brunnings Restaurant and flooded the airport. We only got .25" of rain but we got the winds. We also got some pretty gusty winds for Ivan. I think our effects here won't amount to even half of what we saw Monday night with Cindy, but don't let your guard down. You never know when a tornado is going to pop in a feeder band, so there still could be problems here even with a FL landfall. I realize I'm preaching to the choir here because everyone already knows this stuff, but the way the mets and officials are playing it off completely is a trip.
Steve
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cajungal
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Just goes all by your location. For Cindy, we just had a little wind and some rain. Not much rain though. I seen afternoon thunderstorms much worse here than what we saw with Cindy here. Yet, just to our east in Lafourche, they were getting pounded. My aunt's daughter lives in Lockport which is just to my east, and she lost her trailor in Cindy. And I know New Orleans got some good winds from Georges. While it was absolutely gorgeous here during Georges. Funny having our house boarded up and seeing the pretty blue skies and sunshine.
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I dont know,there is just something about this storm that makes me very nervous.I mean at NO time in the past has a local Met said that a storm isnt going to come here when its hardley in the gulf and here we have 2 that have said so.
The parishes that had called for voluntary evacs have since canceled those orders,and I can tell you one thing,if this thing does indeed keep tracking off to the west and impacts the New Orleans area in ANY way more than a few gusts and some raindrops,I think heads should ROLL at FOX and WWL.
I was ready to leave last night as a just in case aproach had somewhere free to stay,but now my wife and mother are refusing to do so due to the fact that the great know it alls with their computers and 500 different models say theres no way Dennis is going to come to this area.
If I lose my house over this is it possible to sue the NWS,Bob Breck and Carl Aredondo
The parishes that had called for voluntary evacs have since canceled those orders,and I can tell you one thing,if this thing does indeed keep tracking off to the west and impacts the New Orleans area in ANY way more than a few gusts and some raindrops,I think heads should ROLL at FOX and WWL.
I was ready to leave last night as a just in case aproach had somewhere free to stay,but now my wife and mother are refusing to do so due to the fact that the great know it alls with their computers and 500 different models say theres no way Dennis is going to come to this area.
If I lose my house over this is it possible to sue the NWS,Bob Breck and Carl Aredondo
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MSRobi911 wrote:Lindaloo wrote:Regardless of where the model plots are, the fact remains there are alot of us under a Hurricane Warning. Anytime you are under a warning you should make preps for a landfalling hurricane whether it is projected to make landfall in your neck of the woods or not. Ivan should be a perfect example and also Charley.
For those on the MS Gulf Coast, Georges is another example.
We can add Elena to that list for the MS Coast....its coming here, no its going to Florida..people left for Labor Day weekend, then Uk Oh....its coming to Pascagoula again!!!!!
It ain't over till the fat lady sings!! or she/he goes ashore
Mary
PS no I don't want it, far from it..let it go elsewhere but folks need to pay attention!
I forgot Elena! She was a nightmare for alot of folks!
Stay safe Mary! I saw where you have your home boarded up. Good for you!!
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Yall are watching this hurricane a little too closely. Have we all forgotten that hurricanes often wobble and stair-step? The NHC track is an average movement. It is impossible to forecast every wobble and dip in the track. It will not move in a straight line in route to it's final destination, which I believe the NHC has accurately predicted. I feel for the people east of here. Be careful. Dennis is once again strengthening. Good luck to all of you.
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TSmith274 wrote:Yall are watching this hurricane a little too closely. Have we all forgotten that hurricanes often wobble and stair-step? The NHC track is an average movement. It is impossible to forecast every wobble and dip in the track. It will not move in a straight line in route to it's final destination, which I believe the NHC has accurately predicted. I feel for the people east of here. Be careful. Dennis is once again strengthening. Good luck to all of you.
As of the 1 p.m. EDT advisory, at 25N 84W, the center is only 6 nm W of the 5 a.m. NHC track. Very impressive job so far.
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