Dennis Not Strengthening Quickly

#1 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:38 am

I think it may barely even be a major hurricane at landfall. It's fighting some shear (and it's moving into some shear) and it soon will be getting into higher lattitudes (the westerlies). There is also some dry air that will be getting sucked into it. Also the water temps are not as warm as they are in the Caribbean and FL straits. I say a small CAT 2 at landfall.

Stratusxpeye · #2 Postby **Stratusxpeye** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:42 am

Big difference from prev thoughts. A low CAT 2 Would be about 100-105 which isnt that much. But some are saying 145mph at landfall. I agree with the more lower end. Possibly 110-120

jkt21787 · #3 Postby **jkt21787** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:44 am

There is no way its coming in as a 4 and much less likely as a 3. Its not organizing terribly fast, shear is/will be increasing, waters become cooler and shallower.

This will likely be a mid-high cat 2 at landfall. Still damaging for some areas, but nothing like what could've been.

#4 Postby **LSU2001** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:45 am

It's 100 at the 11:00 advisory. I would say it is gaining strength from last night. However I don't see the rapid deepening yet.
TIm

#5 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:47 am

I really don't think it will that much....for the reasons I explained....it was far stronger when it was in the deep tropics where the environment was far more favorable.

#6 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:48 am

I also think the media is way overreacting on this thing.

otowntiger · #7 Postby **otowntiger** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:51 am

boca_chris wrote:I also think the media is way overreacting on this thing.

I agree with you 100% regarding the media and the intensity.

Thunder44 · #8 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:55 am

The eye is popping out on visible images now, I say it's getting a good bit stronger right now.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #9 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:55 am

Who knows if its getting stronger or not. It was not intill we got recon into it yesterday morning did we know that this tihng was almost a cat5. We don't know...In it appears to have become a good amount better oreganized.

Thunder44 · #10 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:56 am

boca_chris wrote:I also think the media is way overreacting on this thing.

They been told by forecasters that this will be a major hurricane at landfall.

birdwomn · #11 Postby **birdwomn** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:57 am

Whether the media is overreacting depends upon whether they are still saying 145mph at landfall or not.

Before Dennis went over Cuba, things were far different than they are now, IMO.

Also, I guess it depends on which media you are talking about. If it is the news channels, they just read the headlines and aren't getting the updates...so they were still reading yesterday's news.

#12 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:58 am

when is recon going?

#13 Postby **feederband** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:59 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Who knows if its getting stronger or not. It was not intill we got recon into it yesterday morning did we know that this tihng was almost a cat5. We don't know...In it appears to have become a good amount better oreganized.

Yup.........

Droop12 · #14 Postby **Droop12** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:01 am

If this thing was coming towards you guys and you had just lost your home in another hurricane less then a year before, would you believe they'd be over-reacting? I doubt it. Ya'll sound like the statistics that write off a storm and end up being killed for not evacuating. Its always better safe then sorry. And by the way, there is nothing small about a Cat2/3. Too bad its not gonna be a 5 at landfall, that woulda been kool :roll:

#15 Postby **drezee** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:03 am

I am surprised that they would drop their intensity forecast so drastically. They haven't had a RECON fix in hours. Without a pressure trend or windfield measurement. Either he is weaker than they first said, or they are taking a big chance here. Every media outlet in the nation is now saying that this will not be a major at landfall now. If someone decides to stay because of it not making this threshold, they must be held accountable.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #16 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:04 am

I agree Drezee...They need recon to confirm this before taking that chance.

#17 Postby **LSU2001** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:10 am

Why are ya'll saying that recon is not in the forecast?? The 11:00 says that recon data is calculated in the forecast.
TIm

SATELLITE...RADAR...AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE DENNIS HASSLOWLY BEEN GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE HASBEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING SINCE DENNIS MOVED OFF THE NORTH COAST OFCUBA...BUT THIS HAS NOT BEEN REFLECTED BY A CORRESPONDING INCREASEIN FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS. THE EYE HAS BEEN RAGGED LOOKING MOSTOF THIS MORNING IN THE KEY WEST DOPPLER RADAR DATA...ALTHOUGH IT
HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS A BLEND OF RECON FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...SFMR
DATA...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KT AND 90 KT FROMTAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #18 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:12 am

That was 2 or 3 hours ago...

#19 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:12 am

When are they supposed to get out there?

#20 Postby **wx247** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:15 am

boca_chris wrote:I also think the media is way overreacting on this thing.

Who is overreacting? What is your definition of this? A cat. 2 is still a big deal and it is the media's job to alert people. Sorry if that is your definition of overreacting.

Dennis Not Strengthening Quickly

Dennis Not Strengthening Quickly

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