5:30 TWO: Mentions Tropical Wave

[Thunder44]

Tropical Weather Outlook


Statement as of 5:30 am EDT on July 9, 2005


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dennis...located about 85 miles southwest of Key West Florida.

Satellite images indicate that the shower activity associated with a
tropical wave located halfway between Africa and the Lesser
Antilles has become a little better organized. There is a potential
for slow development as the wave moves westward during the next day
or two.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Sunday.
Forecaster Avila

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If we hit the E storm durning the next week or so. Then we will have a large lead over 1995. The models show it moving north of the Islands.

Ecmwf
Gfs
Cmc
MM5
Nogaps

They develop something.

This might be a fish if it go's north of the islands...

[mobilebay]

If we hit the E storm durning the next week or so. Then we will have a large lead over 1995. The models show it moving north of the Islands.

Ecmwf
Gfs
Cmc
MM5
Nogaps

They develop something.

This might be a fish if it go's north of the islands...

Yes. I would like to add if it don't go north of the Islands it won't be a fish.

[Duffy]

Actually no.....Joe Bastardi says that it may be the next Threat to the US a week or so from now, either as TS or Hurricane

[AussieMark]

If we hit the E storm durning the next week or so. Then we will have a large lead over 1995.

We already have a large lead over 1995

the D storm became the D storm in 1995 on July 30
the D storm became the D storm in 2005 on July 05

thats like 25 days ahead of 1995

the E storm became the E storm in 1995 on July 31.

Thats still 22 days away

[wxwatcher91]

also in 1995, the first four storms werent amazing or anything... max mph of each added up to 260, average of 65mph for each.

SO FAR in 2005, the first four storms have had a collective wind of 330, or an average of 82.5mph.

[HURAKAN]

Also in 1933 the 4th tropical system developed July 21st, and the 5th developed July 25th. Obviously we are ahead of the game.

[wxwatcher91]

tropical wave section of the 8am edt TWD

...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE WAVE REPORTED EARLIER TO BE ALONG 29W/30W HAS BEEN CHANGED
TO BE TREATED AS A TROUGH...NOT A TROPICAL WAVE. IT IS MOVING
WEST 10 KT. ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE.

THE SURFACE LOW NEAR 11N36W FROM THE 09/0000 UTC ANALYSIS HAS
BEEN ATTACHED TO A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WAS PLACED ALONG 36W...
BASED ON LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY. IT IS MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS COVER
THE WATERS FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. SOME OF THIS
PRECIPITATION PROBABLY IS MORE RELATED TO THE ITCZ THAN TO THIS
LOW CENTER.

IT WAS DETERMINED...VIA LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY...THAT THE
FEATURE REPORTED EARLIER TO BE A TROPICAL WAVE ACTUALLY IS A
TROUGH FROM AN EARLIER BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. THIS TROUGH IS ALONG
43W/44W FROM 9N TO 18N. NO PRECIPITATION IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO
THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60W/61W HAS ENTERED THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO CUT ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH WHICH THIS WAVE IS MOVING. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 10N TO 16N
BETWEEN 58W AND 66W.

[wx247]

Oh goodness... I have been waiting for the TWO to mention this system and now it does. Get the bear watch ready.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It seems to be around 39 west moving west-northwest. It has developed deep convection. It is a small system.

http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/o ... loope.html


Its a very small system. But it appears to have a LLC.
http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/o ... TLCVIS.GIF

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

very small but you can clearly see it...
http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/o ... loope.html

[wxcrazytwo]

If we hit the E storm durning the next week or so. Then we will have a large lead over 1995. The models show it moving north of the Islands.

Ecmwf
Gfs
Cmc
MM5
Nogaps

They develop something.

This might be a fish if it go's north of the islands...

Matt, why do you always say that. I know you want fish, but dude not every wave that develops north will be fish..

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Trying to not to scare people.

[Duffy]

LOL i said that yesterday
i say Bring Em on! lol
and you're right about the devolopment...alot of storms have gone North of The Islands.....and become big Hurricanes

[AussieMark]

LOL i said that yesterday
i say Bring Em on! lol
and you're right about the devolopment...alot of storms have gone North of The Islands.....and become big Hurricanes

Andrew, Fran, Floyd, Isabel, Frances are a few examples.

[Duffy]

yep

[bellavista2]

Many of you seem to forget that there are 700 islands next to US that consistently get hit and sometimes devastated before US gets hit.

Anyone want to take Andrew, Floyd and others off the "no island hit" before US list?

[caribepr]

[quote="bellavista2"]Many of you seem to forget that there are 700 islands next to US that consistently get hit and sometimes devastated before US gets hit.

Anyone want to take Andrew, Floyd and others off the "no island hit" before US list?[/quote]

Not to mention the rather large string of islands to the south and east of the US To be fair, in the two years I've been reading on this site (and learning a lot), there is much more awareness of *the rest of us* than when I first started coming here, and I'm thankful for it.

[gkrangers]

I'm predicting landfall of Emily in New Jersey.

[Scorpion]

Im predicting Emily will come to Miami as a Cat 5.