Recon Reports Dennis

[senorpepr]

Storm Name: DENNIS (04L)
Mission Number: 12
Flight ID: NOAA2
Observation Number: 06
Time: 0820Z
Latitude: 22.9°N
Longitude: 84.6°W
Location: 140 mi W of Havana, Cuba
Turbulence: Occasional Moderate
Flight condition: Unknown
Pressure Altitude: 10100 feet
Flight level wind: N (350°) @ 38 mph
Temperature: 52°F
Dewpoint: 45°F
Weather: Unknown
700mb height: 10200 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None

[Thunder44]

URNT12 KNHC 090838
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/08:24:50Z
B. 23 deg 46 min N
082 deg 52 min W
C. 700 mb 2851 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 140 deg 066 kt
G. 043 deg 022 nm
H. 972 mb
I. 11 C/ 3048 m
J. 14 C/ 3047 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C12
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 01 nm
P. AF307 WX04A DENNIS02 OB 12
MAX FL WIND 66 KT NE QUAD 08:18:30 Z

[senorpepr]

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
Storm Name: DENNIS02 (04L)
Mission Number: WX
Flight ID: AF307
Observation Number: 12
Time: 08:24:50Z
Latitude: 23.8°N
Longitude: 82.9°W
Location: 61 mi NNW of Havana, Cuba
Minimum height at 700 mb 2851 m
Maximum flight level wind: SE (140°) @ 76 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 25 mi NE (43°)
Sea level pressure: 972 mb
Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 52°F at 10000 feet
Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 57°F at 9997 feet
Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 54°F
Eye character: CLOSED
Eye shape: Circular
Eye diameter: 14 mi
Fix determined by: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature at 700 mb
Navigation / Met Accuracy: 0.02 / 01 nm
MAX FL WIND 66 KT NE QUAD 08:18:30 Z

[senorpepr]

Storm Name: DENNIS02 (04L)
Mission Number: WX
Flight ID: AF307
Observation Number: 14
Time: 0850Z
Latitude: 24.5°N
Longitude: 82.9°W
Location: 72 mi W of Key West, Florida
Turbulence: Occasional Moderate
Flight condition: In cloud
Pressure Altitude: 8000 feet
Flight level wind: ESE (110°) @ 65 mph
Temperature: 55°F
Dewpoint: 55°F
Weather: Rainshowers
D-value: 0 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None

[hurricanedude]

looks like a cane...but recon says different...go figure

[senorpepr]

Storm Name: DENNIS02 (04L)
Mission Number: WX
Flight ID: AF307
Observation Number: 15
Time: 0904Z
Latitude: 24.1°N
Longitude: 82.6°W
Location: 62 mi WSW of Key West, Florida
Turbulence: Occasional Moderate
Flight condition: In cloud
Pressure Altitude: 8000 feet
Flight level wind: SE (140°) @ 73 mph
Temperature: 52°F
Dewpoint: 52°F
Weather: Rainshowers
D-value: -200 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

senorpepr, This thing has developed deeep convection. On radar it looks like the small eye is fading while a larger banding eye is forming. When that tightens expect this storm to shoot through the roof.

[senorpepr]

Storm Name: DENNIS (04L)
Mission Number: 12
Flight ID: NOAA2
Observation Number: 11
Time: 0913Z
Latitude: 25.1°N
Longitude: 81.7°W
Location: 38 mi N of Key West, Florida
Turbulence: Moderate
Flight condition: In cloud
Pressure Altitude: 10000 feet
Flight level wind: SE (140°) @ 75 mph
Temperature: 50°F
Dewpoint: 48°F
Weather: Thunderstorm
700mb height: 10200 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None

[Thunder44]

URNT12 KNHC 090920
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/0846Z
B. 23 DEG 48 MIN N
82 DEG 55 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2865 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 310 DEG 53 KT
G. 227 DEG 14 NM
H. 970 MB
I. 12 C/ 3062 M
J. 14 C/ 3088 M
K. 11 C/ NA
L. OPEN SW
M. C10
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 1204A DENNIS OB 08
MAX FL WIND 53 KTS SW QUAD 0842Z
SFMR MAX WIND 40 KT SW QUAD 0842Z

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

970 millibars with only 40 knots flight level over the southwestern quad

[mobilebay]

Matt I think there are two different planes out there. Right now I believe one is in the East Quad and one is in the west Quad. What is most significant is a 2MB pressure drop within an hour. Remember it takes some time for the winds to catch up with a pressure drop. I don't think that plane has sampled the NE quad. Thats why the winds are so low.

[senorpepr]

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
Storm Name: DENNIS OB 08 (04L)
Mission Number: 12
Flight ID: NOAA2
Observation Number:
Time: 0846Z
Latitude: 23.8°N
Longitude: 82.9°W
Location: 65 mi NNW of Havana, Cuba
Minimum height at 700 MB 2865 M
Est. Surface Winds Observed: NA
Distance and bearing from center to max surface wind: NA
Maximum flight level wind: NW (310°) @ 61 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 16 mi SW (227°)
Sea level pressure: 970 mb
Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 54°F at 203 feet
Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 57°F at 289 feet
Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 52°F
Eye character: OPEN SW
Eye shape: Circular
Eye diameter: 12 mi
Fix determined by: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature at 700 mb
Navigation / Met Accuracy: 1/1 NM
MAX FL WIND 53 KTS SW QUAD 0842Z
SFMR MAX WIND 40 KT SW QUAD 0842Z

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah the radar shows that it is open over the southwest side. While it shows a large eye with bright yellows forming around it. Its going through a ERC. In when that outter eye tightens watch it become a powerful hurricane again.

Cuba must of really messed up the wind field good.

[wxwatcher91]

senorpepr, This thing has developed deeep convection. On radar it looks like the small eye is fading while a larger banding eye is forming. When that tightens expect this storm to shoot through the roof.

well.... I just woke up from a couple-hour long nap *yawn*

I havent loaded the satellite ...but if you're right about that, we could see winds back up to 110mph by the 11am and probably back up to 120mph by 5pm and then 130 by the 11pm and we could maybe see a cat 4 by tomorrow

[mobilebay]

Whats really interesting is the last two Vortex Messages where 22 minutes apart and we had a 2MB pressure drop!

[Derek Ortt]

its not going to do anything quickly as long as the temp gradient is as flat as it currently is. Before landfall, there was a 10 deg C temp gradient in the eye

[senorpepr]

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
Storm Name: DENNIS02 (04L)
Mission Number: WX
Flight ID: AF307
Observation Number: 16
Time: 09:12:10Z
Latitude: 23.9°N
Longitude: 83°W
Location: 71 mi NNW of Havana, Cuba
Minimum height at NA mb NA m
Est. Surface Winds Observed: NA
Maximum flight level wind: SE (143°) @ 83 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 8 mi ENE (58°)
Sea level pressure: 972 mb
Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 57°F at 8005 feet
Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 61°F at 7999 feet
Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 61°F
Eye character: RAGGED W
Eye shape: Circular
Eye diameter: 15 mi
Fix determined by: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature at 700 mb
Navigation / Met Accuracy: 0.02 / 01 nm
MAX FL WIND 72 KT NE QUAD 09:10:00 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The inner eye is fading away. While at the same time the outter one is starting to take over. Because of the inner eyewall fading/Getting its energy taken by the outter the pressure is up two millibar.

[Innotech]

I definitely agree that the storm is about to bomb again. a storm like htis with a record of fast intensification will probably remain that way, even if significantly weakened. Dennis days are probably not numbered and he might very well still make hte projected landfall intensity. Dont count out this crazy thing.

[wxwatcher91]

does that mean Dennis is going through an EWRC?