More Concerned

Sean in New Orleans · #1 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:07 am

Well, I'm hitting the sack...I stayed up to get the latest warning. Dennis is moving more West than I thought and his forward speed is not slwoing down. In spite of what NWS says and models showing, I feel like I'm seeing a very slow gradual shift more westward (with models and forecasting). I could be wrong and I hope I am, but, hopefully, later today, I will see something that convinces me this system is not coming to New Orleans. I've yet to see it, thus far...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

LilNoles2005 · #2 Postby **LilNoles2005** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:12 am

I don't know what you're seeing that most everyone else isn't, but it still looks like Pensacola-Mobile to me.

Foladar · #3 Postby **Foladar** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:14 am

It actually has slowed, down to 13mph now, and not really a WNW movement. More NW.

Sean in New Orleans · #4 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:15 am

LilNoles2005 wrote:I don't know what you're seeing that most everyone else isn't, but it still looks like Pensacola-Mobile to me.

I see 50 to 75 miles West of the NHC's track of 12 hours ago. Hope that clarifies your question...

rtd2 · #5 Postby **rtd2** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:16 am

Sean in New Orleans wrote:Well, I'm hitting the sack...I stayed up to get the latest warning. Dennis is moving more West than I thought and his forward speed is not slwoing down. In spite of what NWS says and models showing, I feel like I'm seeing a very slow gradual shift more westward (with models and forecasting). I could be wrong and I hope I am, but, hopefully, later today, I will see something that convinces me this system is not coming to New Orleans. I've yet to see it, thus far...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Yeah Most of the NOLA mets Have been Hammering P'cola! Now they Say MAYBE As far West as Gulfport and NOW NOLA has been Upgraded to TS WARNING....Keep your eyes open! Things could swing Just like Last year with Ivan except Opposite Direction!...Gut feel is Still Mobile bay!

One Eye · #6 Postby **One Eye** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:20 am

What about that ULL vortex moving south east with the trough axis now off of south west Louisiana. The upper level southwesterlies are really blowing which to me would stop any landfall west of the 87 or so longitude. Forgive me if I'm wrong but to me that troug axis is going to be our saving grace.

Sean in New Orleans · #7 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:27 am

One Eye wrote:What about that ULL vortex moving south east with the trough axis now off of south west Louisiana. The upper level southwesterlies are really blowing which to me would stop any landfall west of the 87 or so longitude. Forgive me if I'm wrong but to me that troug axis is going to be our saving grace.

It appears weak to me...Dennis seems like he has the override on this weak trough...we'll see. I'm outta here and I'm praying Dennis East (sorry to my friends in Alabama and Florida). I'm not up to another storm. Cindy was enough wind and rain for me for a whole season...See you all later in the day (around noon). I'm so glad I'm off of work tomorrow!!

mobilebay · #8 Postby **mobilebay** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:28 am

One Eye wrote:What about that ULL vortex moving south east with the trough axis now off of south west Louisiana. The upper level southwesterlies are really blowing which to me would stop any landfall west of the 87 or so longitude. Forgive me if I'm wrong but to me that troug axis is going to be our saving grace.

Please remember, conditions that are present now don't mean they will be there when Dennis approaches the Coast. In fact, the models Forecasts the Trough to pull out.

#9 Postby **crazycajuncane** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:28 am

One Eye wrote:What about that ULL vortex moving south east with the trough axis now off of south west Louisiana. The upper level southwesterlies are really blowing which to me would stop any landfall west of the 87 or so longitude. Forgive me if I'm wrong but to me that troug axis is going to be our saving grace.

That's what has been the case so far. Hopefully all remains.

rtd2 · #10 Postby **rtd2** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:32 am

mobilebay wrote:
One Eye wrote:What about that ULL vortex moving south east with the trough axis now off of south west Louisiana. The upper level southwesterlies are really blowing which to me would stop any landfall west of the 87 or so longitude. Forgive me if I'm wrong but to me that troug axis is going to be our saving grace.

Please remember, conditions that are present now don't mean they will be there when Dennis approaches the Coast. In fact, the models Forecasts the Trough to pull out.

Agreed.... those ULL's are hard to Forecast and A strong storm will Move it or Fill it in! Elena '85 comes to mind! I see that ULL as a Weak to NO factor!

MannyG · #11 Postby **MannyG** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:33 am

One Eye wrote:What about that ULL vortex moving south east with the trough axis now off of south west Louisiana. The upper level southwesterlies are really blowing which to me would stop any landfall west of the 87 or so longitude. Forgive me if I'm wrong but to me that troug axis is going to be our saving grace.

I agree with you One Eye. I am glad that Dennis is moving fast. If it slows down we might be in a little bit of trouble. The thing to watch with the ULL is how far south it drops.

Earlier the ULL was producing a SW to NE flow.
Now it is producing a SSW to NNE flow.
It looks like it will soon be a S to N flow.
I think Dennis will make landfall at this point.

The one bad possibility is if Dennis moves slower or the ULL dips south faster which would produce a SSE - NNW or SE to NW flow.

More Concerned

More Concerned

I don't know..

Re: I don't know..

Re: More Concerned

Who is online