Recon Reports Dennis

[weatherSnoop]

There are 2 recons in the air...one AF307 and one en route NOAA2

[Scorpion]

Lol I mean what is going on with Dennis??

[clfenwi]

Boy, I would love to know what the highest minimum central pressure was for Dennis while it was over Cuba. I can't help but wonder if it got beat down a lot more than we thought it did (but as we saw, still maintained its central organization) and then lit off when it found water. I suspect that pressure crashed once it got over water and we have yet another case of wind obs trailing the pressure obs.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think what he was meaning to say is. That the recon looks to have found Dennis a tropical storm.

[gkrangers]

I think what he was meaning to say is. That the recon looks to have found Dennis a tropical storm.

Its not a tropical storm.

[senorpepr]

Storm Name: DENNIS02 (04L)
Mission Number: WX
Flight ID: AF307
Observation Number: 05
Time: 0636Z
Latitude: 24.6°N
Longitude: 83.8°W
Location: 128 mi W of Key West, Florida
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: In & out of clouds
Pressure Altitude: 10000 feet
Flight level wind: ENE (60°) @ 55 mph
Temperature: 50°F
Dewpoint: 45°F
Weather: Rainshowers
700mb height: 10200 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None

[senorpepr]

Inbound Ob #1: 24.4°N 081.3°W; 700mb height: 10200 feet; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 48°F; Flt level wind: SE (130°) @ 69 mph
Inbound Ob #2: 24.3°N 081.5°W; 700mb height: 10200 feet; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 48°F; Flt level wind: SE (140°) @ 59 mph
Inbound Ob #3: 24.1°N 081.7°W; 700mb height: 10100 feet; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 46°F; Flt level wind: SE (140°) @ 56 mph
Inbound Ob #4: 23.9°N 081.9°W; 700mb height: 10100 feet; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 46°F; Flt level wind: SE (140°) @ 65 mph
Inbound Ob #5: 23.7°N 082.0°W; 700mb height: 10000 feet; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 45°F; Flt level wind: SE (140°) @ 82 mph
Inbound Ob #6: 23.6°N 082.2°W; 700mb height: 13100 feet; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Flt level wind: SE (140°) @ 66 mph
Max flight level wind (Inbound): 82 mph at 23.7°N 082.0°W
First inbound ob surface wind: NA

Outbound Ob #1: 23.6°N 082.7°W; 700mb height: 13100 feet; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 52°F; Flt level wind: NE (50°) @ 51 mph
Outbound Ob #2: 23.7°N 082.9°W; 700mb height: 9900 feet; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 52°F; Flt level wind: NE (50°) @ 46 mph
Outbound Ob #3: 23.9°N 083.1°W; 700mb height: 10000 feet; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 48°F; Flt level wind: ENE (60°) @ 50 mph
Outbound Ob #4: 24.1°N 083.3°W; 700mb height: 10100 feet; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 46°F; Flt level wind: ENE (60°) @ 46 mph
Outbound Ob #5: 24.3°N 083.5°W; 700mb height: 10100 feet; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Flt level wind: ENE (60°) @ 52 mph
Outbound Ob #6: 24.5°N 083.7°W; 700mb height: 10200 feet; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 46°F; Flt level wind: ENE (60°) @ 53 mph
Max flight level wind (Outbound): 59 mph at 23.5°N 082.7°W
Last outbound ob surface wind: NA
Storm Name: DENNIS02 (04L)
Mission Number: WX
Flight ID: AF307
Observation Number: 06

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Ok they found 82 mph winds...We got a hurricane.

[kevin]

There was never any question it was a hurricane. I don't mean to be gruff, but basing the downgrade of a storm this organized with such a low pressure on the basis of one reading.. it doesn't work. Especially with ground observations showing a strong system.

[gkrangers]

Ok they found 82 mph winds...We got a hurricane.

We always did. 82mph, using 90% reduction reduces to 73.8mph.

[senorpepr]

Storm Name: DENNIS (04L)
Mission Number: 12
Flight ID: NOAA2
Observation Number: 03
Time: 0644Z
Latitude: 16.4°N
Longitude: 83.5°W
Location: 163 mi N of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: Unknown
Pressure Altitude: 18000 feet
Flight level wind: SSW (210°) @ 12 mph
Temperature: 23°F
Dewpoint: 3°F
Weather: Unknown
500mb height: 19400 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None

[senorpepr]

Storm Name: DENNIS02 (04L)
Mission Number: WX
Flight ID: AF307
Observation Number: 07
Time: 0652Z
Latitude: 23.6°N
Longitude: 83.8°W
Location: 98 mi WNW of Havana, Cuba
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: In & out of clouds
Pressure Altitude: 10000 feet
Flight level wind: N (10°) @ 39 mph
Temperature: 50°F
Dewpoint: 48°F
Weather: Rainshowers
700mb height: 10100 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None

[clfenwi]

That first vortex message is just weird all around... AF300 comes out of nowhere with an OB 01 LAST REPORT !?!?

I obviously wasn't paying close attentinon because I went to pull the HDOB messages to see what the flight profile for that observation was. I was puzzled to find AF307 not in the vicinity at that time. That, of course is when I realized that it was AF300 that took the ob. Weird.

[loon]

question, is the red area close to center the center or the hole that looks like is going to be the eye the center?

[senorpepr]

Storm Name: DENNIS (04L)
Mission Number: 12
Flight ID: NOAA2
Observation Number: 04
Time: 0711Z
Latitude: 18.5°N
Longitude: 84.5°W
Location: 234 mi SE of Cancun, Mexico
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: Unknown
Pressure Altitude: 18000 feet
Flight level wind: W (260°) @ 9 mph
Temperature: 25°F
Dewpoint: 9°F
Weather: Unknown
500mb height: 19400 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None

[senorpepr]

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
Storm Name: DENNIS02 (04L)
Mission Number: WX
Flight ID: AF307
Observation Number: 08
Time: 07:11:30Z
Latitude: 23.6°N
Longitude: 82.7°W
Location: 44 mi NNW of Havana, Cuba
Minimum height at 700 mb 2855 m
Est. Surface Winds Observed: NA
Maximum flight level wind: N (355°) @ 50 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 9 mi W (269°)
Sea level pressure: 972 mb
Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 52°F at 10000 feet
Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 55°F at 10003 feet
Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 52°F
Eye character: CLOSED
Eye shape: Circular
Eye diameter: 14 mi
Fix determined by: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature at 700 mb
Navigation / Met Accuracy: 0.02 / 01 nm
MAX FL WIND 71 KT NE QUAD 05:57:50 Z

[senorpepr]

Storm Name: DENNIS02 (04L)
Mission Number: WX
Flight ID: AF307
Observation Number: 10
Time: 0732Z
Latitude: 23.6°N
Longitude: 81.4°W
Location: 70 mi SSE of Key West, Florida
Turbulence: Occasional Moderate
Flight condition: In cloud
Pressure Altitude: 10000 feet
Flight level wind: S (170°) @ 68 mph
Temperature: 46°F
Dewpoint: 46°F
Weather: Rainshowers
700mb height: 10100 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None

[clfenwi]

Observation Number: 09
Time: 0733Z
Position: 23.6 North // 82.7 West
Sea Level Pressure: 972 millibars:
Surface winds: 12 knots // 185
925 millibar hieght: 439 meters
925 millibar winds: 10 knots // 195
850 millibar height: 1177 meters
850 millibar winds: 8 knots // 185
700 millibar height: 2840 meters
700 millibar winds: 17 knots // 345

[senorpepr]

Storm Name: DENNIS02 (04L)
Mission Number: WX
Flight ID: AF307
Observation Number: 11
Time: 0753Z
Latitude: 25.1°N
Longitude: 81.5°W
Location: 41 mi NNE of Key West, Florida
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: In cloud
Pressure Altitude: 10000 feet
Flight level wind: SE (130°) @ 67 mph
Temperature: 46°F
Dewpoint: 46°F
Weather: Rainshowers
700mb height: 10200 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None

[senorpepr]

Storm Name: DENNIS (04L)
Mission Number: 12
Flight ID: NOAA2
Observation Number: 05
Time: 0752Z
Latitude: 21.3°N
Longitude: 85.9°W
Location: 66 mi ENE of Cancun, Mexico
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: Unknown
Pressure Altitude: 18000 feet
Flight level wind: NNW (330°) @ 16 mph
Temperature: 25°F
Dewpoint: 9°F
Weather: Unknown
500mb height: 19300 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None