Larry Cosgrove: 140MPH at U.S landfall.

[Innotech]

Guess I'll get in and "pull a few G's" with folks in the "Which Way Will He Go" dogfight. I realize that our weather people are doing their best and have amazing technology to use. I'm mostly a weather lurker here, with not much weather-smarts. I have always seen the NHC itself and virtually all credible forecast sources add DISCLAIMERS and words of caution as to the complexity of forecasting with accuracy. This is why I listen to them and then DO NOT assume that the storms will exactly follow what the models and experts are PREDICTING. This is still better than "back in the day", when it would get stormy, folks would scratch their heads and HOPE that they weren't about to die. A final thought: Did anyone or a model predict that loop that Jeanne did last season? I don't think that "missing" this move made anyone a failure.

Im certainly not calling them a failure. storms arent oging to stick to NHC linel ike glue. I just observed the wnw motion and how it was a trend not a wobble.

[sea oat]

AMEN Innotech! Look at Ivan last year. A perfect example.

[Javlin]

Well Dennis is out of the BOX now let's see what happens.The track aross Cubaa was alittle longer than any of us anticipated.I am really interested in the NOGAPS for the morning.I think the GFS like Don said might be getting corrupted data for it's run since the Gulf Stream IV has been feeding it.Then the BAMM models are basically for the CONUS not tropical systems.They use them to input data for what is happening over the CONUS.Hey he jumped out of the box 2N and 1W let's se how things unfold.

[Derecho]

What's his history been on forecasting canes?

Hideously Bad. Probably the least knowledgeable about the tropics of any of the on-line "pro" mets.

Has a strange infatuation with the Canadian and is a notorious Northeast wishcaster (when he has the opportunity to, for an East Coast cane.)

[HurricaneBill]

The nhc thought it was a cat2 when it was really almost a boarder line cat5. That is the problem.


Also it should of headed more to the north then into Tempa area like they where forecasting. It turned to the northeast because of the trough to the northwest.

Um......the NHC did not think Charley was a Cat2 when it was a strong cat4. They had recon going into Charley. The problem was that Charley was rapidly intensifying.

Yes, the forecast had said Charley might reach lower-end Category 3. However, keep in mind that Charley was a midget hurricane. If conditions are favorable for strengthening, a midget hurricane will rapidly intensify. If conditions are unfavorable, a midget hurricane will fall apart quickly.

As for not hitting Tampa, the forecast had shifted more to the east, however, the media kept hyping for Tampa.

Remember, the SW coast of Florida, including Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda, were under hurricane warnings and also had mandatory evacuations ordered.

What happened with Charley was not a mess-up. It was a nightmarish scenario that played out.

[vbhoutex]

The core of Dennis is definitely intact and the convection is already building and wrapping the eye area. Go to any of the threads with the KW radar and you can see it. Look for CAT3 by mid-morning.