1 a.m. update: Watches likely change to warnings.....

[dixiebreeze]

TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005

...EYE OF DENNIS MOVES OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AFTER CROSSING
HAVANA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA...
CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS
TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN AND GUANTANAMO. A
HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE
PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. A LARGE PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA MAY
BE DISCONTINUED SOON.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF AND
FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE
PEARL RIVER. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THIS AREA EARLY TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM ANCLOTE KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
COAST WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE...
INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM NORTH OF ANCLOTE KEY NORTHWARD TO EAST OF THE
STEINHATCHEE RIVER.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...AND FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DENNIS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 AM EDT...0500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED BY THE
KEY WEST RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.3 WEST JUST
NORTH OF THE CITY OF HAVANA OR ABOUT ABOUT 95 MILES...150 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR... AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS MOTION SHOULD MOVE DENNIS AWAY FROM CUBA AND BRING THE CENTER
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY INTO A
MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES...100 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER CUBA AND CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE STILL POSSIBLE
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA.
HIGHER VALUES OF STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE IN BAYS AND INLETS. A
STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 6 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. A
STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 7 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
FLORIDA TODAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.

REPEATING THE 1 AM EDT POSITION...23.3 N... 82.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 962 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 3 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

[gkrangers]

They have been very careful not to issue Hurricane Watches for New Orleans. That would probably force an evacuation.

[jasons2k]

They have been very careful not to issue Hurricane Watches for New Orleans. That would probably force an evacuation.

I hope the gamble pays off. I dunno if I would want that responsibility right now.

[tampastorm]

Also 1st time in a while it moved actually NW .3 north .2 west since 11:00.

[Radar]

gkrangers, just think of the disaster if all of the sudden this storm decides to shift really far west toward N.O. they would never have enough time to get the city evacuated. The NHC must be extremely confident that the storm will not go that far West. They have far too much to lose in N.O. mainly lives.

[gkrangers]

gkrangers, just think of the disaster if all of the sudden this storm decides to shift really far west toward N.O. they would never have enough time to get the city evacuated. The NHC must be extremely confident that the storm will not go that far West. They have far too much to lose in N.O. mainly lives.

Yep...its such a huge production to evacuate, makes the decision so difficult. Evacuation would be extremely difficult and costly. Which is why they are reluctant unless its absolutely necessary.

[Sean in New Orleans]

They have been very careful not to issue Hurricane Watches for New Orleans. That would probably force an evacuation.

This has been discussed by some people here in New Orleans. Calling an evacuation for over 2.5 million people who call SE Louisiana home is truly a monumental task. There are many things that need to be done to provide for a smooth and quick evacuation. Many have already left and have decided to make it a brief vacation wherever they have gone. Another issue is $$$. The NHC and officials in New Orleans coordinate very closely and when an evacuation is ordered, this major American City truly completely shuts down. An issue that IS considered is commerce...business in SE Louisiana does come to a halt when these evacuations are ordered and consideration is given to the billions of dollars in daily commerce in New Orleans. I'm not implying that the safety of people is jeapordized, but, the economic effects are considered, in a fairly significant way. The Contra-Flow plan is an expensive plan that is coordinated by two states (LA & MS), and the issues with all of these evacuation events are tedious and expensive.

[storm4u]

i think this thing will be a cat 4 by 11 a.m again!!

[NateFLA]

I think I'm wathing KBYX short range loop and its wobbling a bit more north now (to my eye) so perhaps the NHC is expecting it to continue this fashion and stay on the originally predicted track.

[TampaFl]

Agree NateFLA on KYW radar and movement to the nw & nnw. Wobble/trend who knows, only time will tell. How about that squall that just went through the Tampa Bay area in the last hour!!! . And that is just the beggining for today and to night.

Robert

[NateFLA]

Agree NateFLA on KYW radar and movement to the nw & nnw. Wobble/trend who knows, only time will tell. How about that squall that just went through the Tampa Bay area in the last hour!!! . And that is just the beggining for today and to night.

Robert

Yeah man, that was an interesting starting squall.

You know you've got a squall when you take out your top-of-the-line isolation headphones because you are still hearing thunder... and its 2am!