Larry Cosgrove: 140MPH at U.S landfall.

[SouthernWx]

I think you all are underestimating Dennis's organization...

So do I...this isn't Isadore and central Cuba isn't the Yucatan.

PW

[simplykristi]

You all think that you can predict what is going to happen. No one can predict what Dennis is going to do!

Kristi

[Normandy]

His weakening trend is over, hes about to taste GOM waters for the first time.

[Ixolib]

You all think that you can predict what is going to happen. No one can predict what Dennis is going to do!

Kristi

No One?? So how come the NHC exists. If your statement is true, we're wasting millions of tax payer's money each year to keep that agency funded....

[jhamps10]

His weakening trend is over, hes about to taste GOM waters for the first time.

get ready for a return of Major Hurricane dennis, possible cat 4 at U.S. Landfall.

[dhweather]

As we saw with Charley, a hurricane can change direction at any time.

Kristi

But, not without reason.

Correct Brent....and I hate to Dig up old Bones but Didnt Charley hit Within NHC's warning area? YES! I thiunk it was only like 60 miles off (correct me if I'm wrong)...But I see alot of Post as if the NHC Missed spmething or was Suprised?....yes it did Catch some folks off guard just like Opal did Thats why NHC's Landfall projection is Wide..Now thats TRACK I think strenght is Another Topic Charley and Opal Rapid intensification Caught most everyone Off guard!

Other Brent here...

Your right... and this debate was beat in the ground like a dead horse a LONG LONG LONG LONG time ago.

THIS IS NOT GOING INTO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

No more Digging up bones I promise!

How about North carolina as a cat 5 ??

[HurricaneBill]

His weakening trend is over, hes about to taste GOM waters for the first time.

I've tasted GOM water before. It's kinda salty.

[roomer]

You all think that you can predict what is going to happen. No one can predict what Dennis is going to do!

Kristi

No One?? So how come the NHC exists. If your statement is true, we're wasting millions of tax payer's money each year to keep that agency funded....

Kristi,
Weather forcasting is not an exact science, these storms can be fickle. That being said...aren't you darn glad that we have the knowledge and technology to come pretty close? Saves many lives

[roomer]

You all think that you can predict what is going to happen. No one can predict what Dennis is going to do!

Kristi

No One?? So how come the NHC exists. If your statement is true, we're wasting millions of tax payer's money each year to keep that agency funded....

Kristi,
Weather forcasting is not an exact science, these storms can be fickle. That being said...aren't you darn glad that we have the knowledge and technology to come pretty close? Saves many lives

[docjoe]

with charley , for some reason, some people still are caught up in "oh the NHC and everyone else missed it". although it was quite a bit south of the expected tampa hit i think it is important to keep in mind that while travelling basically due north there was only a very small change in longitude. that made a difference as to where it made landfall in a north south direction but was still a very small deviation from its track...does that make sense???

docjoe

[roomer]

with charley , for some reason, some people still are caught up in "oh the NHC and everyone else missed it". although it was quite a bit south of the expected tampa hit i think it is important to keep in mind that while travelling basically due north there was only a very small change in longitude. that made a difference as to where it made landfall in a north south direction but was still a very small deviation from its track...does that make sense???

docjoe

Yes, well put.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Half of its over the Gulf of Mexico...The center is right where that city is...It is moving northwestward. The convection is trying to become defined near the center.(Trying to reform Cdo) We will see this is a little faster then I thought it would get back into the Gulf.

[Ixolib]

Half of its over the Gulf of Mexico...The center is right where that city is...It is moving northwestward. The convection is trying to become defined near the center.(Trying to reform Cdo) We will see this is a little faster then I thought it would get back into the Gulf.

I agree, he looks REMARKABLY well for being over land for so long. Our local met also just said a Hurricane Hunter is waiting just offshore to investigate as soon as Dennis is out of Cuban air space.

[drudd1]

While Charley went in early, he was still within the cone. I think that we sometimes get too hung up on the center line, when what the NHC is actually saying is that, hey this is the center track, but the cone is our margin of error.

[Innotech]

with charley , for some reason, some people still are caught up in "oh the NHC and everyone else missed it". although it was quite a bit south of the expected tampa hit i think it is important to keep in mind that while travelling basically due north there was only a very small change in longitude. that made a difference as to where it made landfall in a north south direction but was still a very small deviation from its track...does that make sense???

docjoe

tha angle of FLorida changed a small miscalculation in track that ALWAYS occurs into a huge "mistake" or rather the appearance of one. People should not judge the NHC's merits based on predictions of hte west Florida coast. that is probably the HARDEST coast to predict. All it takes is one small degree of variance and the storm slams into a town well north or south of the intended forecast. Its only the proof that NHC are still human, despite all the technology and planning that goes into forecasting.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The nhc thought it was a cat2 when it was really almost a boarder line cat5. That is the problem.


Also it should of headed more to the north then into Tempa area like they where forecasting. It turned to the northeast because of the trough to the northwest. Also look at Dennis they where saying northwestward an which this storm would already be off the coast. In look at times it was going westward. What an the world is that????

Dennis still has a ok inner core. In which if it can get a cdo fired up could regain some of what it losted.

[Ixolib]

The nhc thought it was a cat2 when it was really almost a boarder line cat5. That is the problem.


Also it should of headed more to the north then into Tempa area like they where forecasting. It turned to the northeast because of the trough to the northwest. Also look at Dennis they where saying northwestward an which this storm would already be off the coast. In look at times it was going westward. What an the world is that????

Dennis still has a ok inner core. In which if it can get a cdo fired up could regain some of what it losted.

I certainly don't see an absolute NW movement. Looks like only a few degrees north of 270. But, could be seeing only the "smaller" picture???

[docjoe]

another thing to remember with charley...if it had passed 40 miles offshore from pinellas and then came in around northern pasco for example i think everyone would be talking about how accurate the NHC was. However because it went the same distance (roughly) EAST of Tampa/St Pete it was considered a bust. I for one, living here is Santa Rosa County, still cleaning up from Ivan and getting ready to get pounded by Dennis find the NHC to be doing a great job...just my $.02

docjoe

[HurriCat]

Guess I'll get in and "pull a few G's" with folks in the "Which Way Will He Go" dogfight. I realize that our weather people are doing their best and have amazing technology to use. I'm mostly a weather lurker here, with not much weather-smarts. I have always seen the NHC itself and virtually all credible forecast sources add DISCLAIMERS and words of caution as to the complexity of forecasting with accuracy. This is why I listen to them and then DO NOT assume that the storms will exactly follow what the models and experts are PREDICTING. This is still better than "back in the day", when it would get stormy, folks would scratch their heads and HOPE that they weren't about to die. A final thought: Did anyone or a model predict that loop that Jeanne did last season? I don't think that "missing" this move made anyone a failure.

[sea oat]

you're not under the gun. i don't wish ill will on anyone but we don't need this again. i've been here since 1973 so i'm no stranger to hurricanes in this area. i just hope everyone is making their preperations and heeding their advice from their local eoc's.

if you want to wishcast i will surely wish along with you to send it your way.

Cathy in Fort Walton Beach

p.s. that which does not kill us only makes us stronger