Larry Cosgrove: 140MPH at U.S landfall.

[Winnipesaukee]

He's calling for Dennis to rapidly strengthen once it moves back out over water and regain cat 4 status and thump the Mississippi/Alabama coastline.

Here is a link to his full forecast.

[Ixolib]

What's his history been on forecasting canes?

[Brent]

Yikes. That one hurts.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its possible but looking less likely by the hour as it moves west-northwestward.

[Winnipesaukee]

I'd give Larry a 7 out of 10. He's pretty good.

[Ixolib]

Its possible but looking less likely by the hour as it moves west-northwestward.

Wouldn't WNW help verify his views?

[patsmsg]

Yes. I think WNW would put it right where he's saying.

[MannyG]

Yes. I think WNW would put it right where he's saying.

It would put it where he is saying but it would also make his intensity forecast unlikely.

[HollynLA]

Yes. I think WNW would put it right where he's saying.

I agree, but I don't think it's stopped the wnw movement just yet. I think this is going to be an interesting night, and I'm no pro, but I'm betting landfall is going to be around Biloxi, MS as I see it right now. I would think we'll see some changes in the NHC track through the night. Of couse, we still have about 48 hours to go until US landfall, so things can change 5 more times.

[simplykristi]

As we saw with Charley, a hurricane can change direction at any time.

Kristi

[baitism]

The waters west of cuba and in the central gulf to the north central gulf are much warmer then the ones by the Florida panhandle. If it gets back over 85+ degree water it could easily get cat4 as it has maintained good structure.

[rtd2]

The waters west of cuba and in the central gulf to the north central gulf are much warmer then the ones by the Florida panhandle. If it gets back over 85+ degree water it could easily get cat4 as it has maintained good structure.

The More WNW direction is Tearing the CDO apart...at 13-17 mph at best I would say Cat 3 ALOT of Building to do! Look CDO nearly Disappears Last few Frames!


http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

[MGC]

I doubt Dennis will re-intensify to a Cat 4. I'm hoping that Cuba has disrupted Dennis' inner core much like what happened with Isadore back in 2002......MGC

[Ixolib]

As we saw with Charley, a hurricane can change direction at any time.

Kristi

But, not without reason.

[rtd2]

As we saw with Charley, a hurricane can change direction at any time.

Kristi

But, not without reason.

Correct Brent....and I hate to Dig up old Bones but Didnt Charley hit Within NHC's warning area? YES! I thiunk it was only like 60 miles off (correct me if I'm wrong)...But I see alot of Post as if the NHC Missed spmething or was Suprised?....yes it did Catch some folks off guard just like Opal did Thats why NHC's Landfall projection is Wide..Now thats TRACK I think strenght is Another Topic Charley and Opal Rapid intensification Caught most everyone Off guard!

[Normandy]

I think you all are underestimating Dennis's organization...

[rtd2]

I think you all are underestimating Dennis's organization...

Could Be It Has ALOT of Deep Convection in the Outflow...Just needs to start wrapping back up..we shall see!

[Brent]

As we saw with Charley, a hurricane can change direction at any time.

Kristi

But, not without reason.

Correct Brent....and I hate to Dig up old Bones but Didnt Charley hit Within NHC's warning area? YES! I thiunk it was only like 60 miles off (correct me if I'm wrong)...But I see alot of Post as if the NHC Missed spmething or was Suprised?....yes it did Catch some folks off guard just like Opal did Thats why NHC's Landfall projection is Wide..Now thats TRACK I think strenght is Another Topic Charley and Opal Rapid intensification Caught most everyone Off guard!

Other Brent here...

Your right... and this debate was beat in the ground like a dead horse a LONG LONG LONG LONG time ago.

THIS IS NOT GOING INTO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

[Tri-State_1925]

If Charley can go from a cat 2? (I don't remember) to a cat 4 in about 12 hours after crossing Cuba, then Dennis certainly can get to cat 4.

I don't want to get into a Charley trip again...oh man

Bottom line, they shouldn't have any problems warning people about this storm. This is a clear cut badazz strom like Ivan. Tell people cat 4-5 potential (I assume that's partly why they have the category system -- for the public). Get off the beaches anywhere in the highlighted areas, even if they only say Mobile a million times.

[rtd2]

As we saw with Charley, a hurricane can change direction at any time.

Kristi

But, not without reason.

Correct Brent....and I hate to Dig up old Bones but Didnt Charley hit Within NHC's warning area? YES! I thiunk it was only like 60 miles off (correct me if I'm wrong)...But I see alot of Post as if the NHC Missed spmething or was Suprised?....yes it did Catch some folks off guard just like Opal did Thats why NHC's Landfall projection is Wide..Now thats TRACK I think strenght is Another Topic Charley and Opal Rapid intensification Caught most everyone Off guard!

Other Brent here...

Your right... and this debate was beat in the ground like a dead horse a LONG LONG LONG LONG time ago.

THIS IS NOT GOING INTO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

No more Digging up bones I promise!