How Strong Is The Upper Level Low??

[Sean in New Orleans]

Is the troff coming down over Louisiana truly strong enough to effect Dennis and change the course to N/NW? I'm watching closely, of course, but, I'm not sure if I'm seeing a troff strong enough to move this powerful of a storm significantly. I do not think that this system is coming to New Orleans, however, I definitely do not think that Pascagoula/Mobile is out of the question.

[Eyes2theSkies]

i dont believe it is strong enough

[MannyG]

That is the billion dollar question. Right now the ULL entering the Gulf around the TX/LA Border is creating a weakness between itself and the high for Dennis to go through.

On the northern end in Florida you can see the effects of the ULL pushing storms toward the NE. BUT in the Gulf of Mexico you can see the high ever so slightly pushing west still.

The interaction between these two features will determine Dennis's path. I still have my money on Mobile to the Florida Panhandle.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Nimbus]

This is a quote from the 5PM NHC advisory
"Upper-air data at 12z and 18z indicate the mid-level
subtropical ridge across north-central Florida has changed little
today. Also...upper-air data indicate a cold pool of -10c has
developed over northern Lousiana along a 500 mb trough axis...which
none of the models intialized very well. The colder air aloft
should help create a slightly stronger mid- to upper-level low than
the global...GFDL...and NAM models are forecasting to drop south of
Lousiana over the nothwestern Gulf. The result should be a deep-
layer southeasterly steering flow remaining over the eastern Gulf
of Mexico throughout the forecast period."
Sounds right

[Sean in New Orleans]

This is a quote from the 5PM NHC advisory
"Upper-air data at 12z and 18z indicate the mid-level
subtropical ridge across north-central Florida has changed little
today. Also...upper-air data indicate a cold pool of -10c has
developed over northern Lousiana along a 500 mb trough axis...which
none of the models intialized very well. The colder air aloft
should help create a slightly stronger mid- to upper-level low than
the global...GFDL...and NAM models are forecasting to drop south of
Lousiana over the nothwestern Gulf. The result should be a deep-
layer southeasterly steering flow remaining over the eastern Gulf
of Mexico throughout the forecast period."
Sounds right

I read it, as well, however, I've yet to view, with satellite, the deepening needed to effect the system. I'm not saying it will not occur, but, I am worried that it may move out of the way (as I've seen a weakness around Lake Charles, but, nothing significant), before it can effect the hurricane. I don't wish this on anyone, but, of course, I don't want it to come even close to New Orleans, my hometown.