Fully Awake lol: Dennis forecast #6

[Josephine96]

EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST
HURRICANE DENNIS
NJN WEATHER CENTER
FRI JULY 8TH 2005 740PM

Dennis is a very dangerous major hurricane getting ready to enter the GOM. It is also a hurricane that those especially in Florida need to watch.

Dennis gained strength today but then lost some of it with his interaction with Cuba. Despite that he is still a major category 4 with winds of 135 mph.

Dennis is still forecast to go straight to the FLA/Alabama border by the NHC. I for one will flat out disagree. I believe the track will be further east. Thus because now with a NW movement and not a WNW movement, the storm may begin to go poleward soon to the north.

Different variables will steer this major hurricane. The Bermuda High which allegedly has eroded some as a result of Cindy. There is also an apparent front/trough that has come down and some models point to an upper level low trying to form as well.

The big question is.. will the high win out..? If it doesn't.. The storm will make landfall further south and East of it's current projections. My own personal forecast has been adjusted just a tad bit NW.. but still calls for a landfall around the Big Bend area.

Dennis may undergo more "rapid deepening" if conditions appear favorable. {Let's hope he doesn't} otherwise this could be 1 of the strongest hurricanes to ever strike the US coast.

Here's my experimental hurricane forecast on Dennis:
Tonight: Dangerously Close if not going over the Keys. Max Winds: 140 mph
Saturday: All West Coast eyes on Dennis. May run paralell to coast. Max Winds: 145 mph {also inland areas especially in Central Fla will be drenched by outer bands}
Sunday: Landfall just to the N and West of Cedar Key. Max Winds: 135 mph
Monday:Accelerating to the North.. Max Winds: 70 mph
Tuesday: Becoming Xtrap. Max winds: 45 mph

DISCLAIMER:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tim_in_ga]

I agree with you. Looking at WV loops, everything in the top 1/2 of the GOM, and on up to the Mason-Dixon line is heading NE. Looks like something is steering everything that way. But looking at steering currents, the ridge appears to be intact. That doesn't seem to be affecting all the bands coming off Dennis into FLA.

[Josephine96]

I think if this thing makes a jerk to the NE it's gonna scare me.. But something funny tells me it could happen {Not a wishcast}

[tracyswfla]

I think if this thing makes a jerk to the NE it's gonna scare me.. But something funny tells me it could happen {Not a wishcast}

I think at this point, while Dennis is entering the GOM.... every wobble of significance makes a difference.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It was almost a cat5 earlier this morning as it was making landfall on Cuba. It is now down to "125 mph" It appears that this storm is weaking fast at this moment as it heads to the west of northwest...It should spend another 6 to 8 hours before entering the Gulf. I expect it to be a cat2 of 105 to 110 mph. Once over the Gulf expect this to slowly get oreganized. Bcause once hurricanes spend this much time over land there central core is pretty much what can you call it??? I expect by tomarrow afternoon to see this system to then to start reoreganizing its self. The storm will most likely tighten as it is making landfall on the central Gulf Coast some where with an a 100 miles of Mobile.

Why do you say I think it will reach its max at the coast???

For one a system that is already strong will feel the shelf water off the coast. In could weaken like Ivan,Lili or others. Of course its not always remember Camile.

The other kind of storm is the broad storm...
Like
Arlene
Or many other of the boarder systems.

Other the other kind that has spend time over land...
Like Isidor...Or even Cindy...

In which case will tighten at the coast.

I expect it will get back up to a cat3...120 mph at landfall.


This is not a offical forecast please do not take it seriously.

[tim_in_ga]

Earlier (about 5PM) Steve Lyons said only about 4 more hours till Dennis reached the GOM. I'd have to agree with that, not 6 to 8 more hours.

[Innotech]

Earlier (about 5PM) Steve Lyons said only about 4 more hours till Dennis reached the GOM. I'd have to agree with that, not 6 to 8 more hours.

if you note how far its gotten in just 6 hours and compare that to how far it has to go to exit Cuba, you will see its around 4 hours and definitely not the 6 or 8 people are saying. This storm is really booking it.

[Brent]

Too far east... moving almost due west right now.