Dennis looks east of his projected path

[SCHawkFan]

I am sure someone will correct me if I am wrong, but wouldn't an equal movement of degrees and minutes north and west indicate the the hurricane has actually moved more to the north than to the west because the earth is a sphere? I would guess that the movement was nearly twice as many miles north than west.

[Stormcenter]

To all of you all excited about the so called "eastward" movement or whatever. I would first of all wait until Dennis is in the GOM. Hurricanes sometimes act differently when they enter the GOM. He may end up moving southwest.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

I am sure someone will correct me if I am wrong, but wouldn't an equal movement of degrees and minutes north and west indicate the the hurricane has actually moved more to the north than to the west because the earth is a sphere? I would guess that the movement was nearly twice as many miles north than west.

Distance between degrees of latitude are always very close to equal, no matter where on earth you are, this is only because of the earths slightly flattened spherical shape. Approximately 69 miles for each degree of latitude, varying by less than a mile at the poles

Distance between degrees of longitude varies between 0 (at the poles) to ~69 miles @ the equator. At 40 degrees latitude, distance between degrees of longitude is about 53 miles. Extrapolate to figure for ~20 degrees latitude that we are concerned about.

To sum this up, an equal number of degrees change latitude, and longitude at this particular latitude equals a more northward than westward motion.

i.e. 1.2 degrees change latitude north is about 83 miles. 1.2 degrees longitude change at this latitude is about 72 miles west.

An obvious NNW motion. My math is not perfect but close enough for hurricane work

[deltadog03]

last hour .2W movement...nothing north..posted in the radar thread...

[Scorpion]

The battle between west and north begins .

[rainstorm]

if anything its going to exit cuba west of where all the models said.

[ericinmia]

On GRW88Level3 you can track things by plotting points and then move the cursor to the new one, and calculate the distance and angle.

In the past 15 min it has moved 2.7nm and 314 degrees.
-Eric

[Cape Verde]

On the GOES satellite loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html, it's clearly west of the projected path.

[Pebbles]

Ok... all you east siders to the right of the room... all you west siders to the left... when I point to your group say either IT"S EAST or IT"S WEST for whichever group your in and we'll see who is louder and that group wins!!! *remembers the taste great less filling commercials*

Ready... set....

[mtm4319]

On GRW88Level3 you can track things by plotting points and then move the cursor to the new one, and calculate the distance and angle.

In the past 15 min it has moved 2.7nm and 314 degrees.
-Eric

Do you have to have the pay version for that?

[drezee]

The official movement for the last three fixes from the NHC

0.1N 0.3W

No arguing the NHC...

[timeflow]

It's moving around, wobbling at stretches. For all intents and purposes it's on track. Every 6 hours those paths are tweaked based on the initial location of the center, so it's all relative anyhow. The real concern here is that eventually this is going to affect people living in the area Ivan battered last year.

[timeflow]

It's moving around, wobbling at stretches. For all intents and purposes it's on track. Every 6 hours those paths are tweaked based on the initial location of the center, so it's all relative anyhow. The real concern here is that eventually this is going to affect people living in the area Ivan battered last year.

[margaritabeach]

Ok... all you east siders to the right of the room... all you west siders to the left... when I point to your group say either IT"S EAST or IT"S WEST for whichever group your in and we'll see who is louder and that group wins!!! *remembers the taste great less filling commercials*

Ready... set....

how bout you can call me west or you can me east but you dousn't have to call me johnson...

ok that was pretty weak and obscure

[soonertwister]

I'm working on a theory that when Dennis was stronger (over shallow warm water) he veered to the right, now weakened (over land) he's veering back to the left.

Works for me. Weaker hurricane, less influence against the ridge. By that theory, we should expect Dennis to start to turn more poleward once back over water.

It's not based on my knowledge of hurricanes, which is modest; it's just a hunch regarding this one cane.

[deltadog03]

thanks dreeze....and whoever said that dennis will exit west of the models, might be right...and hey, its slowing down as well...that might be something too

[tim_in_ga]

Doesn't look like the steering currents have changed at all lately. Check out the latest here:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm4.html

and the 3-hr previous here:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... lm4-1.html

[EDR1222]

Looks as of the ridge is holding steady, maybe even building some. Dennis seems to have taken on a more westerly track during the evening hours. That would be great news for the Keys and also it increases the chance of it weakening further the longer it stays over Cuba.

[tim_in_ga]

Sure looks like a northern turn, unless my tired eyes are deceiving me.

[cinlfla]

Do you have a link? Everytime I look it looks as if its going more west then north.