Latest on the questionable strength of the ridge

[Nimbus]

I see what you mean about the ridge bridging Purdue.
Just north of the Texas Arkansas border you can see the bridge starting.
The only question I have is where is the ridge axis going to be in 48 hours?
You would expect some recurve to the right once Dennis gets above the ridge axis.

[AL Chili Pepper]

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=CLT&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20050708&endTime=-1&duration=4

This is a big, 4-hour loop of water vapor imagery over much of North America. The ridge is holding it's own out there in the central Gulf, and as a matter of fact, even seems to be building ever-so-slowly to the north and west. If this trend continues, the 12z NAM, which shows more bridging between the northern plains and southeastern ridge, may be on to something with it's further west track.

The shortwave over TX is amplifying but is not making any eastward progression whatsoever this morning. You can also see ridging trying to work north towards the trough in the Lakes states. The two are fighting right now, but a shortwave embedded within the ridge (wave in MT now) should be the kicker that will push the trough out of the Northeast. Also, now that the powerful upper lower over the Pacific is moving into BC and the Pacific Northwest, we will have better sampling of upper air flow. This will aid forecast models in predicting both the strength of that upper low and the downstream amplification (or not) of the ridge in the Plains.

What this all means to me is that Louisiana is not out of the woods here, and in fact, may be ground zero if the ridge continues to amplify as the 12Z NAM suggests. I also trust the UKMET more than most other models because of it's superior accuracy and performance on the synoptic scale.

I agree. I've been thinking all along that the ridge building back behind the short-wave could push Dennis as far west as LA. LA's a better bet than Panama City IMO. The system in TX seems like a non-factor....too weak.

[wxwatcher91]

I'm judging purely by satellite right now and also the previous reports of the area of hurricane force winds... I think hurricane force winds could definitely skim the west coast of the peninsula.

where Dennis will strike? I'm saying pan handle to big bend

[chris_fit]

[chris_fit]

I'm judging purely by satellite right now and also the previous reports of the area of hurricane force winds... I think hurricane force winds could definitely skim the west coast of the peninsula.

where Dennis will strike? I'm saying pan handle to big bend

The official forecast is for this thing to pass just south of Havana.. somehow... and based on the fact that it's already north of it's forecast... I think it will pass north of Havana. The will be adjusted to the left again at 5pm.

[tw861]

I'm judging purely by satellite right now and also the previous reports of the area of hurricane force winds... I think hurricane force winds could definitely skim the west coast of the peninsula.

where Dennis will strike? I'm saying pan handle to big bend

The official forecast is for this thing to pass just south of Havana.. somehow... and based on the fact that it's already north of it's forecast... I think it will pass north of Havana. The will be adjusted to the left again at 5pm.

Actually the official 11am forecast had it passing about 30 miles east of Havana.

[Nimbus]

5 PM NHC advisory said the trough should win out near landfall.
They have done a great job of analyzing the scenario thus far.
Are the gulf stream missions going this evening to sample the environment and see if this will verify?
We need all the shear we can get with this storm.

[x-y-no]

It's looking like my right-side of the cone idea is losing out. The crossing so far has been more at about 310 degrees as opposed to the 325 degrees I expected, which means we're looking at Dennis emerging 70 or 80 miles further west than I predicted.

Bad news for the eastern provinces of Havana, good news for the lower Keys.

I expect Key West will still experience hurricane conditions, but nowhere near what it would have been if he had tracked a little north of northwest like I thought.

Guess that's why NHC are the pros and I'm just an amateur, right?

Jan

[Innotech]

well its even going west of the official NHC track so they cant always be spot on either.

[chris_fit]

Check this out...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html

Why are the cloud tops of Dennis over the FL Pen. being blown off to the NNE?

[tim_in_ga]

Check this out...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html

Why are the cloud tops of Dennis over the FL Pen. being blown off to the NNE?

That's what I asked in a few other threads. Nobody seems to acknowledge this. Everything is blowing to the NE in the N GOM.

[chris_fit]

Check this out...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html

Why are the cloud tops of Dennis over the FL Pen. being blown off to the NNE?

That's what I asked in a few other threads. Nobody seems to acknowledge this. Everything is blowing to the NE in the N GOM.

Someone answer meeeee Wahhhhh :

[LilNoles2005]

Check this out...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html

Why are the cloud tops of Dennis over the FL Pen. being blown off to the NNE?

That's what I asked in a few other threads. Nobody seems to acknowledge this. Everything is blowing to the NE in the N GOM.

Someone answer meeeee Wahhhhh :

I wanna know too. It does look interesting. Probably nothing, or it's probably something that will not be in play when Dennis gets into the GOM.

[Nimbus]

High pressure anticyclone dome is building over Dennis causing NE cloud flow to the north and SW flow to the south.
The trough action is still back at the Texas coast.
So far the bridging and filling scenario has not verified.

[x-y-no]

Yeah ... I'm still a bit mystified ...

Here's the satellite derived upper wind analysis from 21 Z (5pm EDT)



Now it sure looks to me like the ridge has backed off to the east, just like the trend I was pointing out since yesterday. Yet the storm's movement is more westerly.

Go figure.

Jan

[Rainband]

I agree.

[tim_in_ga]

The ridge still appears intact here:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm4.html

Don't know how current that data is, and why everything is defying the movement it indicates.

[deltadog03]

Hey JB's thinking might be right...come on guys...some like him some don't but, hey, he could be onto something

[MBismyPlayground]

Check this out...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html

Why are the cloud tops of Dennis over the FL Pen. being blown off to the NNE?

That's what I asked in a few other threads. Nobody seems to acknowledge this. Everything is blowing to the NE in the N GOM.

Someone answer meeeee Wahhhhh :

Chris, very interesting. The first thing I noticed was this when I pulled up the graphics. As you might recall I don't know diddley, meaning what a ridge versus a trough are ect.....But, in this graphic, there is like a brown area that seems to be pushing the clouds in that north east direction....what is that brown patch called??? or is there a name for it? Or is it just a type of cloud.....I know, I sound like a dumb blonde

[x-y-no]

Hey JB's thinking might be right...come on guys...some like him some don't but, hey, he could be onto something

Well, this morning, JB still had Dennis staying south of Cuba until he crossed the western end, so I don't think JB's idea verified any better than mine. Matter of fact, he was a fair bit further off than I was, in the opposite direction.

Jan