Hurricane Watches Likely Nrn Gulf Coast at 5

[jkt21787]

Max Mayfield announced they are in coordination for a Hurricane Watch at 5 along the Northern Gulf coast, unknown what the breakpoints will be.

[jkt21787]

He said this on MSNBC by the way.

[wx247]

Thanks jkt. MSNBC has been doing a good job covering Dennis so far!

[djtil]

based on the NO forecast discussion it will be well east of new orleans with tropical storm watches beginning on east side of NO..


.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS OF 12Z UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOW MAIN TROUGH OVER EAST TX AT 250MB
AND WEAKENING RIDGE OVER FLORIDA. THIS IS MORE APPARENT AT LOWER
LEVELS AS WELL. IN SHORT RANGE EXPECT WEAK VORT TRANSITTING INTO
TROUGH OVER LA WILL SET OFF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION
AGAIN ON SATURDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED ZONE FORECAST BASED ON PROJECTED
TRACK OF TPC ON DENNIS. AVN MODEL IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND LOCAL
ANALYSIS APPEAR TO BACKUP THE LOGIC. MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
PREVIOUS PRODUCT.
MARINE ZONES ARE ANOTHER MATTER. WILL NEED TO WAIT ON TPC
CONFERENCE TO DETERMINE ON WHEN TO SET UP TROPICAL STORM WATCH
CONDITIONS FOR THE EASTERN LEG OF THE COASTAL WATERS. WITH CURRENT
TRACK...EXPECT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN OUTER COASTAL WATERS
EAST OF THE MS RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY. WITH THIS...WE SHOULD
SEE A RISE IN TIDES FROM 2 TO 3 FEET BY SUNDAY AM.

[hurricanedude]

Mouth of the Mississippi to Cedar Key sounds reasonable for Hurricane watch, my guess anyway

[Brent]

Thanks jkt. MSNBC has been doing a good job covering Dennis so far!

Joe Scarborough will be in his hometown of Pensacola tonight and over the weekend providing live reports.

[jkt21787]

I know we're getting off topic, but here is CNN's Plans:
According to CNN/US President Jon Klein CNN/US is gearing up for a wild weather weekend. In an e-mail to CNN Blog, here's how Klein summed up CNN's plans to cover Hurricane Dennis:

"It's a wild weather weekend at CNN, with extensive coverage already underway - as the only network with a Havana bureau, we've been covering Dennis's arrival and impact using our Havana buro chief, Lucia Newman.

Anderson Cooper jets from London to the teeth of the storm to report live on Sunday, joining several dozen reporters, producers, and camera crews deployed thruout the possible landing zone.

The indefatigable Team O'Brien will anchor a special edition of American Morning Sunday from 6a-2p. Fredricka Whitfield and Tony Harris 2-6. Kyra Phillips and Wolf Blitzer 6-midnight. Carol Lin midnight onward.

Chad Myers and our entire corps of crack meteorologists mans the CNN Weather Center round the clock beginning tonight, offering periodic updates."

We've got by far more resources to throw at this story than anyone, and we're using 'em!"

[wx247]

Thanks for CNN's plans. Wild doesn't even begin to describe it.

[dixiebreeze]

Thanks jkt. MSNBC has been doing a good job covering Dennis so far!

Joe Scarborough will be in his hometown of Pensacola tonight and over the weekend providing live reports.

Joe was sort of funny after Ivan, running around in his shorts and getting blown around. I like Joe.

[Brent]

The indefatigable Team O'Brien will anchor a special edition of American Morning Sunday from 6a-2p. Fredricka Whitfield and Tony Harris 2-6. Kyra Phillips and Wolf Blitzer 6-midnight. Carol Lin midnight onward.

LOL... American Morning at 1pm in the afternoon



They were on til 3pm or so yesterday due to the attacks in London.

Last year, the cable news networks did better than TWC covering the hurricanes.

[digitaldahling]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1135 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2005

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-090000-
BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-
COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-
GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
1135 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2005

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DENNIS FORECAST TO HIT THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION THIS WEEKEND...

...PREPAREDNESS MEASURES SHOULD BE TAKEN TODAY AND COMPLETED ON
SATURDAY...

THE LATEST OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST HAS THE CENTER
OF HURRICANE DENNIS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT...AND PROGRESSING TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO EARLY SUNDAY. LARGE SWELLS IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS AND SOME BEACH EROSION.

BASED ON THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...IN ADVANCE OF DENNIS...COULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS SATURDAY EVENING. THE BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA COULD SEE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EARLY SUNDAY. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY HURRICANE DENNIS...AND COULD RESULT IN
EXCEPTIONAL RUNOFF AS THE GROUND REMAINS NEARLY SATURATED FROM
TROPICAL STORM CINDY.

IF THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CONSISTENT...EVACUATIONS MAY BE NEEDED
EARLY THIS WEEKEND. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE UNDERWAY AT THIS TIME...
AND EMERGENCY ACTION PLANS SHOULD BE INITIATED.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR DENNIS MAKING LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SEEN
WITH DENNIS COULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN IN HURRICANE IVAN AND
HURRICANE FREDERIC.

AS WITH ANY HURRICANE FORECAST TRACK...FUTURE CHANGES TO THE
OFFICIAL TRACK...TIMING...AND INTENSITY OF HURRICANE DENNIS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS NEW DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST HURRICANE ADVISORIES AND FORECASTS
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

[HurryKane]

Hee, I like Anderson Cooper. Didn't he do a lot of pieces from Ivan where he and his interviewees were getting blown all over the place....maybe one of them was Al Roker? My memory is shot

[Brent]

Hee, I like Anderson Cooper. Didn't he do a lot of pieces from Ivan where he and his interviewees were getting blown all over the place....maybe one of them was Al Roker? My memory is shot

Yep... Anderson was in Mobile(I think) for Ivan. I remember watching him right before landfall. They were on the weak side so the winds were considerably less, but it was still entertaining.

[Brent]

NWS MOB:

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HURRICANE WATCH ALZ063-064
FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO MONDAY ALZ051>064.
FL...HURRICANE WATCH FLZ002-004-006

[Ixolib]

Looks like the distance of the watch area is about equal on either side of the "line". Are they just splitting the difference in any regard, or is the model cluster pretty much a done deal?

[gkrangers]

Looks like the distance of the watch area is about equal on either side of the "line". Are they just splitting the difference in any regard, or is the model cluster pretty much a done deal?

We can't verify the models till the storm makes landfall...the models are just guidance...nothing is ever guaranteed. They can be 100% wrong, and alot of the time they are.

[Mattie]

Here are the strike possibilities in plain English for us non-weather speakers . . .

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200504.strike.html

[dixiebreeze]

The new hurricane watches are from the Pearl River (Miss.) to Steinhatchie, Fla. in the Big Bend area.