The ridge is buckling

[wxcrazytwo]

you can see the bend in the north eastern quadrant.

[/url]http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html[url]

Play the loop on 15 frames and you can see the lower part of the ridge giving in..[/url]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[deltadog03]

STOP THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Derek Ortt]

actually, the ridge is building in even more

[Ivanhater]

people see whatever they want to see, lol

[loon]

I was going to say it Derek, but, alas, this bickering over the ridge has gotten old...atleast a met said it this time...thanks

cheers,
loon

[jkt21787]

WRONG!!!

Ridge is not buckling. Its amazing what eyes can see.

[wxcrazytwo]

maybe so. I thought I saw some bending there..Oh well.

[Brent]

wxcrazy... where exactly are you???

[jax]

I think he's in the Tampa area...

[wxcrazytwo]

I'm in Tampa..at work slaving away.

[Anonymous]

As an amateur, I always thought with intense hurricanes, they actually strengthen the high pressure to the north of them. In this case, I would have to guess this is what's taking place?

Derek..do you think this is what's taking place? If so, how much of an influence would this be on the forecast track at this time?

[Droop12]

I second that question.

[jkt21787]

wxcrazy... where exactly are you???

Why would you ask that question? You don't think he could be seeing things because he lives in FL? Nah, he couldn't.

[deltadog03]

wxcrazy... where exactly are you???

Why would you ask that question? You don't think he could be seeing things because he lives in FL? Nah, he couldn't.

no kevin, not him...but, seriously...can we stop, at least, making new topics for this...and thanks for the profession help

[dhweather]

actually, the ridge is building in even more

Thank you for the objective and VERY PROFESSIONAL opinion Derek.


David

[crazycajuncane]

This kinda stuff will keep me far away from these boards during the day time. I guess that's why I'm usually on here after 11pm.

[rtd2]

I was thinking Early this morning havanah would Be spared the Core but Now I'm not so sure

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kbyx.shtml

[chris_fit]

What is this coming down from Iowa?

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

[Sanibel]

After viewing the WV loops for the last day looking for any sign of a turn towards us in SW Florida I've determined that the ridge is firm and holding. NHC basically has it right.

Dennis has been a burper swinging right and teasing us, but basically correcting back left and averaging on NHC. The main Atlantic Bermuda High is firm and guiding Dennis on that gradual NHC curve. In my opinion it isn't buckling.

There's a secondary High over Florida nosing into the eastern most Gulf as an extension of the ridge. This should relay Dennis off the main Atlantic steering High and keep him on NHC.

A view of the WV loop shows some business up in the northern Gulf where the trough merges with the return flow off the High. Looking at it it looks possible that shear will keep Dennis down near the coast - but who knows really.

Track from this merge is interesting because it looks to me like a curve and turn into Destin upon approach.

Right now Dennis has smoothed little left again in obedience with NHC - which is good for us here in SW Florida.

Theory:

The WV "point" caused by the flat edge in the Gulf and flat edge in the Atlantic points a little north of NW. Interpolate this into the present track and Pensacola looks to be in the crosshairs. If the High is unbudging Bastardi could be correct. That is the question at this point...

[Terry]

Well, I personally won't argue with Derek, since he is The Man. However, I did see another met state that the ridge is eroding slowly...building northward, but eroding on the southern edge.