I definitely need to give the props to the GFDL for catching up the rapid intensification of the system days ago, when many didn't find it feasible. It also occured exactly where it was showing it on the same time frame as it happened.
TWO days ago (when Dennis was still a tropical storm), the GFDL showed that on 1200 UTC July 8, 2005, a Category 4 monster was going to be located NW of Jamaica with a 933 mb pressure. Almost exactly what happened this morning. If any of you remember, the same thing happened with Ivan last year and it caught up the explosive development east of the Lesser Antilles.
As much as many want to throw away the models, you have to admit that they sometimes do a very good job in forecasting...
Gotta give the props to the GFDL...
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Hyperstorm
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jasons2k
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GFDL
the GFDL is notorious for intensifying storms very quickly. There have been numerous, numerous Armageddon GFDL generated forecast charts, that of course never verified.....we just happened to have a storm actually do it this time.
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Hyperstorm
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You're all very right as I can recall many times when it's happened, but at least for this time it was feasible.
I can relate to having the GFDL spinning up a major hurricane for an environment not even favorable for a category 1, but when the model recognizes the favorability of the pattern you have to give it credit. The environment ahead of Dennis was VERY favorable for intensification and if one model forecasted this rapid intensification was the GFDL.
You have to recognize when the pattern appears conducive or not and when one model correctly sees this environment, it is important to count it...
I can relate to having the GFDL spinning up a major hurricane for an environment not even favorable for a category 1, but when the model recognizes the favorability of the pattern you have to give it credit. The environment ahead of Dennis was VERY favorable for intensification and if one model forecasted this rapid intensification was the GFDL.
You have to recognize when the pattern appears conducive or not and when one model correctly sees this environment, it is important to count it...
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HurricaneGirl
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