Gotta give the props to the GFDL...

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Hyperstorm
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Gotta give the props to the GFDL...

#1 Postby Hyperstorm » Fri Jul 08, 2005 11:06 am

I definitely need to give the props to the GFDL for catching up the rapid intensification of the system days ago, when many didn't find it feasible. It also occured exactly where it was showing it on the same time frame as it happened.

TWO days ago (when Dennis was still a tropical storm), the GFDL showed that on 1200 UTC July 8, 2005, a Category 4 monster was going to be located NW of Jamaica with a 933 mb pressure. Almost exactly what happened this morning. If any of you remember, the same thing happened with Ivan last year and it caught up the explosive development east of the Lesser Antilles.

As much as many want to throw away the models, you have to admit that they sometimes do a very good job in forecasting...
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jasons2k
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GFDL

#2 Postby jasons2k » Fri Jul 08, 2005 11:10 am

the GFDL is notorious for intensifying storms very quickly. There have been numerous, numerous Armageddon GFDL generated forecast charts, that of course never verified.....we just happened to have a storm actually do it this time.
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#3 Postby ericinmia » Fri Jul 08, 2005 11:14 am

" A Broken Clock Is Right Two Times A Day! "

lol
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#4 Postby MGC » Fri Jul 08, 2005 11:15 am

Yea, the GFDL spins up system quite quickly and usually is unrealiable for intensity forecasts. It got lucky this time.....MGC
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#5 Postby Hyperstorm » Fri Jul 08, 2005 11:20 am

You're all very right as I can recall many times when it's happened, but at least for this time it was feasible.

I can relate to having the GFDL spinning up a major hurricane for an environment not even favorable for a category 1, but when the model recognizes the favorability of the pattern you have to give it credit. The environment ahead of Dennis was VERY favorable for intensification and if one model forecasted this rapid intensification was the GFDL.

You have to recognize when the pattern appears conducive or not and when one model correctly sees this environment, it is important to count it...
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#6 Postby dhweather » Fri Jul 08, 2005 12:07 pm

ericinmia wrote:" A Broken Clock Is Right Two Times A Day! "

lol


Now that's funny and true for the GFDL! :D
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#7 Postby HurricaneGirl » Fri Jul 08, 2005 12:19 pm

Wow! I didn't know that about the GFDL.
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#8 Postby jkt21787 » Fri Jul 08, 2005 12:23 pm

ericinmia wrote:" A Broken Clock Is Right Two Times A Day! "

lol

Very true. It rapidly intensifies almost every system in the Tropics. It got lucky this time as MGC said.
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#9 Postby jrod » Fri Jul 08, 2005 12:23 pm

From Joe B.: " Even a blind sqirrell can find a nut."
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