Joe B. @ 10AM Update

[jasons2k]

He has a new update on the Pro Site with an interesting take on how the frictional effects of land can alter the course of a storm.

The case he cited in the recent past was Isidore and its interaction with the Yucatan. I remember this myself when it happened.

To very briefly summarize, he thinks Dennis will end up about 100 miles to the west of the models' track(s) once it finally clears Cuba and resumes its "normal" track.

[lacyclone]

huh? Please explain. I don't understand what this means.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

under his philosophy, wouldn't interaction with Flodrida's land mass tend to "suck and hold" Dennis close to Florida's west coast then? -Since the storm is so large in area, much of it will be over the penninsula as it heads NW

[GalvestonDuck]

He has a new update on the Pro Site with an interesting take on how the frictional effects of land can alter the course of a storm.

The case he cited in the recent past was Isidore and its interaction with the Yucatan. I remember this myself when it happened.

To very briefly summarize, he thinks Dennis will end up about 100 miles to the west of the models' track(s) once it finally clears Cuba and resumes its "normal" track.

True about land interaction. Just look at how much Cindy's forecast changed after crossing the Yucatan.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/CI ... hics.shtml

[gtalum]

I imagine that Cuba with its mountains has a much stronger effect on storms than the Florida peninsula does. I selfishly hope he's right, but I don't have a lot of faith in his prediction.

[LAwxrgal]

GalvestonDuck, great point.

By Joe B's own theory, wouldn't that tend to track the storm more to the east?

[dwg71]

If Im not mistaken arent most of the mountains in Cuba on the SE side of the island. I know west end is pretty flat, what about center. Any elevation maps out there???

[Steve]

Bastardi's two really good aspects are his landfall interaction issues (e.g. intensification on Texas Coast when hitting at right angle stuff) and pattern recognition. But I think he's just being stubborn trying to hold and fight for his prediction of SELA to Mobile Bay. He made some good points in his video, but it's pretty clear (or at least seems to be if the Goes 12 site would update more often) that Dennis a) ain't coming out of the west side of Cuba and b) ain't going in in western Cuba.

Obviously that all changes if it continues to hug the coast. Chances < 50/50 that he's right IMHO.

Steve

[jasons2k]

OK, here is the full explanation. I know I shouldn't from the site, but since this is just a scientific explanation and not a prediction hopefully it'll be OK.

FRIDAY 10AM: ONE MORE THING ON DENNIS. The shape of the Cuban coast once to 82 west is of big concern to me that an even more westward move could develop tonight until Cuba can let go of the storm. That this storm has not jumped inland yet shows the intensity of jet steering it. Why? because land masses to the RIGHT of the hurricane pull the hurricane in, by weakening winds to the right and in front of the hurricane, creating an independent eddy in the flow that will pull the storm to the coast. Classic example was Charley. Conversely to the left, they stay offshore, unless the coast in bent in front of them.
Lets look at the lesson of Isadore. The wind was dying over land to the left so it should have stayed offshore right. In that case and since we caught it 12 hours before on national TV and in this column I think I have the right to explain the reason we caught it, was that as the storm went further west, the wind in back of it died relative to it being accelerated around and then south around the peninsula, creating the kind of situation that deflected the stream and steered it in.

Flash forward to this storm. Once to the bend in the Cuban coastline, the storm may have the same kind of effect develop, the wind is weakening behind it over land but is accelerated west and south over water in advance of it, creating enough force for a further west move once it gets close to the coast. On its way out. Once the eyewall can re-organize then it can get back on a true track, but by that time it may be 100 to 150 miles west of where US models thought it was going to be. If one looks at the GFDL 24 hour error, for the hurricane model it is supposed to be against a global model such as the European or UKMET, it is very bad. In any case, that same model over the last 4 runs has moved its landfall from Appalachicola to Gulfport.It will be interesting to see how things turn out.

[jax]

He's been rtight all year...
Did you get a chance to see his "Deviation Ranking"
He said about a month ago that the prime taget area
this year is between LA and Destin... It's like he called
this track a month ago... you gotta give him MAJOR kudos
that that... To say you don't have confidence in his forcast
is ridiculous... His is as valid... if not more so, than anyones.

[GalvestonDuck]

Check the topographical map of Cuba that I posted here (scroll down). Looks almost like if he makes landfall in Cienfuegos, he'll brush by some of the mountains in that region and miss the ones along the northern coast from Habana to Jovellanos. However, it looks as if maybe he's going right over the mountains between Cienfuegos, Santa Clara, and Sancti Spiritus. Hard to pinpoint it until he gets there.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=66861

[Steve]

>>He's been rtight all year...
Did you get a chance to see his "Deviation Ranking"
He said about a month ago that the prime taget area
this year is between LA and Destin... It's like he called
this track a month ago... you gotta give him MAJOR kudos
that that... To say you don't have confidence in his forcast
is ridiculous... His is as valid... if not more so, than anyones.

I'm assuming you're talking to me and not being rhetorical since I was the one giving his ideas a < 50/50 chance. Let's get a couple of things straight here jax:

1) I've been acccused of being a Bastardi echo on here by a couple of posters

2) The last 2 years I paid for Accupro because I obviously found value in the videos and the column sufficient to justify the expenditure

3) I think Bastard is the best (bar none) in the business because he throws his whole heart and soul into what he does. I really respect that.

4) I've probably learned more from reading his columns between 2000 and 2004 than I have from any other single source.

However, I just don't see his reasoning as he's been harping since Tuesday. If he verifies, I won't really be surprised because like I said, his pattern recognition stuff is A++++. But just the same, sometimes he holds on too long to his thinking because he becomes convinced that he's seeing something that may or may not eventually verify. You may recall from yesterday that I said I just don't have a handle on the storm but if a gun was put up to my head, I'd go between Plaquemines Parish and Baldwin County with a gut landfall call of Harrison or Jackson Counties. But no way I was going to make that call. Some of the models were one way, others doing something different. True gut feeling is telling me Gulf Shores to maybe Miramar Beach/Laguna Beach/Panama City Beach. But then there's Joe saying something completely different which I didn't want to discount. But it became clear throughout the day from updates I got that he was hedging his bets rather than going down with his sinking ship of the UKMET and older ECMWF runs.

If he ultimately hits, great. That's just more ammunition for his supporters about how great he can sometimes be with this stuff. But we've got the NHC and Stewart (another favorite of mine) going in a different direction. They're the official team. You gotta at least give them some weight too. One of these sides is liable to be right else we get a compromise/stalemate in the eternal debate of Bastardi vs. everyone else (including the other mets at Accuweather).

We shall see.

Steve

[jasons2k]

Hey Steve:

Excellent Post! I started reading Joe B. in '99 and your post are pretty much my thoughts exactly.

I have great respect for both the NHC and also people like Joe B. who are trying to "up the ante" with new ideas and studies.

[Steve]

Thanks man. I know jax is just -removed- the storm because he's been calling for a Pecan hit for a day or two now. And I like him so I didn't want to trash him for what he said. But he said my lack of confidence in his forecast is ridiculous. I'm calling complete bunk on that. I meld, blend and decipher and try to never put all of my eggs in one basket when it comes to the weather. So I felt like I had to set the record straight. Like I said, I think Bastardi is great. He's a real valuable tool we have. But he's not perfect by any stretch.

Steve

[patsmsg]

He's been rtight all year...
Did you get a chance to see his "Deviation Ranking"
He said about a month ago that the prime taget area
this year is between LA and Destin... It's like he called
this track a month ago... you gotta give him MAJOR kudos
that that... To say you don't have confidence in his forcast
is ridiculous... His is as valid... if not more so, than anyones.

You're absolutely right on this. JB gets bashed repeatedly on this forum for working as part of a for pay service rather than the NHC. He deserves his credit based on what he DOES just as those at the NHC and elsewhere.

[loon]

Just for poops and grins...I'd like to see the models all agree on a Mexico/South Texas land fall JUST ONE time, then switch back..hehe, wouldn't that be a hoot....

cheers,
loon

[LSU2001]

Whats wrong with Jax's Pecan prediction. It places the storm right between JB's forecast and the NHC's. I personally don't see where MS. Ala line is bunk. Just my 2 cents.
TIm

Edit:: nevermind steve I re-read your post and I take it that you are saying "bunk" on Jax's idea that YOUR forecast is bunk. Sorry.
tim

[wjs3]

Steve:

I really enjoyed and appreciated your post.

[goodlife]

Where is Pecan?

[LSU2001]

About 5-6 miles from the alabama/Ms state line.. East of Pascagoula and about 45 miles or so west of Mobile.
TIm