Cloud pattern changing as we speak

[Jevo]

Ive though a little about posting this, but Ive been watching for 10 frames now and figure what the heck..

Over the last 10 frames of the Water Vapor it is evident that the ULL pushing the trough into the Gulf as advanced further than previously forecasted.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Furthermore you can see the cloud plumes that the edge of the trough in the gulf are throwing out plus the energy in W Louisana are both moving off to the North and NNE. This is going to set up for a squeeze play with the high ( will speak on the high in a second)

The Tough coming out of the lakes which now sits poised just north of VA. Another unexpected feature. Most of the models were calling for that trough to sit over MI and the lakes until Saturday Afternoon

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Discussing the Ridge that was built into Florida for a good part of the week and the main steering factor for Dennis. As you can now see on the latest loop the high clouds over the Bahamas and Florida are obviously moving NNE to North.. Not to mention that burst of energy that Dennis just spit out to the north is having no problem moving into an area that was previously all ridge.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Imagine if you will. Is it possible that the unexpected dip of the ULL over Texas into the Gulf (clearly) present on the WV is causing a squeeze play on the Ridge along with the help of Denni's energy protruding out from the center.

im not predicting any landfall. Im just saying synoptically we are looking at very different scenario than presented even at the 5am update. That and the obvious change in motion over the last 6 frames may be a sign of changes to the forecast track

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

IMO because of the current extent of the trough in the gulf and the ridge starting to erode as well I dont see Dennis moving much past FL/AL Line if that at this point

[Scorpion]

Interesting observations. Imagine if this thing surprised us with TS winds.

[dixiebreeze]

Good post, Jevo, answers some of my questions.

[wxcrazytwo]

I am still calling a brush of cane winds in tampa. I think the local T.V. Mets have over-estimated the high and the strong ULL..

[TampaFl]

Wow, great analysis Jevo. I noticed the same about the "digging trough in the NW Gulf. It appears to be pushing more SE into the Central Gulf along with the high pressure off the NE FL coast appears to be moving away from the state., and as you say could this be causing a squeeze play for Dennis to move more NW to NNW over time. Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert

[dwg71]

If Dennis makes landfall on Cuba on or before 80W, I think we are in for a shift east. I have said since Dennis was an invest that landfall would occur at Panama City Beach, FL as a cat 2. I might have one of the two right. I think many would gladly accept a 2 instead of the 4 that he is now.

[sprink52]

Very interesting. That is why I monitor this forum as well as the NHC. Obviously you have studied this closely and have made a good observation. Let's see how this plays out.

[wxwatcher91]

the thing is... the way Dennis is moving on satellite... it looks as if it could even head up the east coast! but... could the NHC be that far off???

seriously... arent they evacuating Louisiana right now??? judging by the current track, Louisiana's gonna get off with a few showers...

[fci]

The loop shows a move somewhat parellel to the Cuban coast (Here I go, looking at a few frames and drawing a conclusion )
Anyway, anyone think that this will skirt WNW parellel and then cross further west than predicted?
Just my amateur guess...

[vbhoutex]

Jevo, a very well thought out and reasoned post. I agree with you, unfortunately, for those alread ravaged by Ivan last year. As I said in another thread it appears to me NHC has the track pegged and I hope they are wrong on the intensity!

[Stratusxpeye]

Great post. Good explanations. I agree completely. They over emphasized it to push it west of the pennisula more than it should have been. My tHOUGHs only. Especially a local met here in Tampa for wfla said "we will see no effects from this hurricane" This was just last night. Hes crazy. But its just a waiting game. Left, right, left, right who knows. But i agree completely with your thoughs on the ridges and ull

[Scorpion]

THis is getting more tense every moment. Now 130 knots and strengthening, as well as a more northern course.

[wxwatcher91]

the NHC projected track hasnt changed at all though!!!

[Scorpion]

How strange.

[tim_in_ga]

the NHC projected track hasnt changed at all though!!!

And it won't until the next update coming soon. They only change every 6 hours. We'll see at 11AM, but I don't see the track shifting much until later tonight.

[duris]

RE: the wind patterns, good discussion from one of our local mets:

Now, point your eyes away from the hurricane across the Gulf. Don't look at the high clouds coming off Dennis, but look at the low thunderstorm clouds well ahead of him just south of FL and west of FL. Also, look at the storms south of LA in the Gulf. Notice they are moving in different directions? Storms south of us are moving in a more north direction while ahead of Dennis, it is more NW or even WNW.

The point being, you can decipher the upper winds by watching these features to verify how the models may be doing. What this tells me is that Dennis will keep moving the way it is until it gets further north in the Gulf and then begin an ever so slightly increased turn to the north as it encounters that change in winds over the northern Gulf….pretty much NHC’s forecast.

But, if those features should stop moving more northerly over the northern Gulf, then we may have changes. Watch those visible images closely..a lot of info can be obtained from them.

[ixl]

Here's a quickie graphic I did showing the progress of the eye over the last six hours. --c

[/img]

[Jevo]

Great image.. keep em coming

[Stratusxpeye]

really good for tracking and getting an idea of movement.

[ixl]

I'll update it at 17:15. I think doing it any more frequently is "dangerous" if you know what I mean. --c