Dennis Advisorys 7 AM,Cat 2 105 mph

Stratusxpeye · #21 Postby **Stratusxpeye** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 9:41 am

Wow 150mph as I previusly htough in my earlier posts around 8:30am this morn. Amazing. Just amazing

#22 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 9:41 am

Anonymous · #23 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 9:42 am

1KT=1.1362MPH. So, 160KTS=182mph

Edited to correct my typo. it is 1.1362, not 1.162

#24 Postby **dgparent** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 9:43 am

Sharpenu, thanks that is STRONG !!

#25 Postby **ncweatherwizard** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 9:43 am

dgparent wrote:Gusts are 160 KNTs what is that in MPH, the converter on hurricane.com only goes to 150KNTs ?

Roughly 180mph.

nolecaster · #26 Postby **nolecaster** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 9:43 am

Aprrox 185 MPH.

mf_dolphin · #27 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 9:44 am

184mph

wxwatcher91 · #28 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 9:46 am

the forecast track hasnt reacted AT ALL to the recent jog! :eek:

#29 Postby **ncweatherwizard** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 9:47 am

Somewhere in there...lol...got five different answers. :lol:

Marshall wins.

AL Chili Pepper · #30 Postby **AL Chili Pepper** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 9:47 am

O!M!G!

Not good.

Website · #31 Postby **Brent** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 9:53 am

I've got a really really bad feeling about this one... :eek:

clfenwi · #32 Postby **clfenwi** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 9:55 am

dgparent wrote:Gusts are 160 KNTs what is that in MPH, the converter on hurricane.com only goes to 150KNTs ?

1 knot = 1.15 mph, so 160 knots = 184 miles per hour

Opal storm · #33 Postby **Opal storm** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 9:55 am

I pray this weakens before U.S land strike :eek:

I fell so bad for those people down there in Cuba right now.

#34 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 9:57 am

HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005

AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORTED A 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND OF 150 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
938 MB. WHILE THE 150 KT EQUATES TO A 135-KT SURFACE WIND...OR NEAR
CAT 5 INTENSITY...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ONLY SUPPORTS ABOUT 125 KT.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KT IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO VALUES. THE
EYE REMAINS DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM CUBA.
THE LATEST RADAR DATA ALSO SUGGESTS THAT DENNIS MAY BE STARTING AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT DENNIS HAS
LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATES IS 310/13. DENNIS HAS BEEN WOBBLING
QUITE A BIT THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND HAS MADE A WOBBLE MORE
NORTHWESTWARD THAN THE WESTWARD MOTION OF 6 HOURS AGO. THIS TYPE OF
MOTION IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR INTENSIFYING MAJOR HURRICANES. THERE MAY
BE SOME ADDITIONAL ERRATIC MOTION AS THE CENTER MOVES ACROSS
CUBA...BUT THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
TO CONTINUE. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT
THIS GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE
GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH U.S. LANDFALL INDICATED FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
WAS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND
LEANS MORE TOWARD THE GFS...NAM...AND THE BAM MODEL SOLUTIONS...
WHICH ARE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THIS IS
BECAUSE THE GFS AND NAM ANALYSES APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF STATES.

DENNIS WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE OVER CUBA...BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.
DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE U.S. LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.

NO CHANGES TO THE U.S. WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS
TIME.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/1500Z 21.4N 79.9W 130 KT
12HR VT 09/0000Z 22.7N 81.7W 110 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 09/1200Z 24.5N 83.6W 115 KT...OVER SOUTHEAST GULF
36HR VT 10/0000Z 26.5N 85.0W 115 KT
48HR VT 10/1200Z 28.4N 86.2W 115 KT
72HR VT 11/1200Z 32.6N 88.3W 65 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 12/1200Z 37.0N 88.6W 30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
120HR VT 13/1200Z 39.5N 84.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND

#35 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 9:58 am

Poor Cuba... :cry:

They are in for A WORLD of hurt. :cry:

Tomorrow morning we will see pics of devastation that you will not believe. :cry:

JTD · #36 Postby **JTD** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 10:00 am

cycloneye wrote:HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005

AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORTED A 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND OF 150 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
938 MB. WHILE THE 150 KT EQUATES TO A 135-KT SURFACE WIND...OR NEAR
CAT 5 INTENSITY...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ONLY SUPPORTS ABOUT 125 KT.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KT IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO VALUES. THE
EYE REMAINS DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM CUBA.
THE LATEST RADAR DATA ALSO SUGGESTS THAT DENNIS MAY BE STARTING AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT DENNIS HAS
LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATES IS 310/13. DENNIS HAS BEEN WOBBLING
QUITE A BIT THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND HAS MADE A WOBBLE MORE
NORTHWESTWARD THAN THE WESTWARD MOTION OF 6 HOURS AGO. THIS TYPE OF
MOTION IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR INTENSIFYING MAJOR HURRICANES. THERE MAY
BE SOME ADDITIONAL ERRATIC MOTION AS THE CENTER MOVES ACROSS
CUBA...BUT THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
TO CONTINUE. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT
THIS GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE
GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH U.S. LANDFALL INDICATED FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
WAS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND
LEANS MORE TOWARD THE GFS...NAM...AND THE BAM MODEL SOLUTIONS...
WHICH ARE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THIS IS
BECAUSE THE GFS AND NAM ANALYSES APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF STATES.

DENNIS WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE OVER CUBA...BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.
DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE U.S. LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.

NO CHANGES TO THE U.S. WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS
TIME.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/1500Z 21.4N 79.9W 130 KT
12HR VT 09/0000Z 22.7N 81.7W 110 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 09/1200Z 24.5N 83.6W 115 KT...OVER SOUTHEAST GULF
36HR VT 10/0000Z 26.5N 85.0W 115 KT
48HR VT 10/1200Z 28.4N 86.2W 115 KT
72HR VT 11/1200Z 32.6N 88.3W 65 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 12/1200Z 37.0N 88.6W 30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
120HR VT 13/1200Z 39.5N 84.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND

Excellent discussion indeed (especially the part about the wobbles)

#37 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 10:03 am

Mr. Stewart clearly didn't see the 12z NAM guidance before writing this. :eek:

It still develops the upper low over TX, but is much weaker with it, and develops much more ridging between the northern Plains and Florida. I doubt the surface representation is correct though - it is showing a WNW heading for quite some time, and puts the storm on the coast MUCH further west now and later (closer to Monday evening).

HurricaneGirl · #38 Postby **HurricaneGirl** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 10:04 am

Holy Crap!! I thought it was going to be maybe 140 mph.. this is crazy!!

Derek Ortt · #39 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 10:04 am

the part about how he determined the wind speeds is bizzarre.

use the data! Not a SLP/wind relation curve

Thunder44 · #40 Postby **Thunder44** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 10:05 am

Yes, the 12z NAM takes it well into Louisana now.

Dennis Advisorys 7 AM,Cat 2 105 mph

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