UNOFFICIAL...Cat 3 @ US landfall FL/AL; Dennis Forecast 9

[ncweatherwizard]

Quote Storm2K:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Quote Nencweather.com:
Although these forecasts appear statistically reliable (see below link), always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any other professional or non-professional source of information except nencweather.com.

Verifications may be found here:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... index.html

Forecast 9:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... ennis.html

Dangerous storm, indeed. This is basically along the same track as last, with just a little extra nudge to the east...still near the AL/FL border. I worked in a little weakening while in the GOM, due to some potential shear; short explanation in the forecast. On your toes, in the potential US landfall area--it's only a couple for days...
Hopefully, I'll get back from the baseball tournament in time to look at this again before midnight. Once again, take care, and if you're in the are near landfall is pointed at and you haven't really got your preparations for this storm underway, it's probably time to get started.

Scott

[wxcrazytwo]

If this thing (Dennis) reaches CAT 5, I'd say no way CAT 3 at land fall. I say CAT4 because if it reaches CAT 5, CUBA will weaken it all that much IMHO..

[Opal storm]

Local mets here have been mentioning maybe a borderline Cat3/4 at landfall.But a AL/FL state border landfall would be worst case scenerio for Pensacola.The damage could be MUCH worse than Ivan in this area.

[smashmode]

Local mets here have been mentioning maybe a borderline Cat3/4 at landfall.But a AL/FL state border landfall would be worst case scenerio for Pensacola.The damage could be MUCH worse than Ivan in this area.

WHy is that..didnt Ivan hit the same area?

[Brent]

Local mets here have been mentioning maybe a borderline Cat3/4 at landfall.But a AL/FL state border landfall would be worst case scenerio for Pensacola.The damage could be MUCH worse than Ivan in this area.

NHC has it right at Cat 3/4 in the Gulf...very very bad. Less weakening over Cuba. Oh... the 5am track also took it right over the city of Pensacola.

[Brent]

Local mets here have been mentioning maybe a borderline Cat3/4 at landfall.But a AL/FL state border landfall would be worst case scenerio for Pensacola.The damage could be MUCH worse than Ivan in this area.

WHy is that..didnt Ivan hit the same area?

Yes... but Ivan was a little weaker AND whatever trees are left have been weakened by Ivan/Arlene plus all the rainfall the area has had meaning they could fall in weaker winds.

[Opal storm]

Not only does Pensacola have bad building codes,but many structures where weakened by Ivan.Majority of Pensacola only experienced cat 1 winds with Ivan yet so much damage was done.Can you imagine how much damage could be done in Pensacola if we get sustained winds of a cat 3 or 4????

[Brent]

Not only does Pensacola have bad building codes,but many structures where weakened by Ivan.Majority of Pensacola only experienced cat 1 winds with Ivan yet so much damage was done.Can you imagine how much damage could be done in Pensacola if we get sustained winds of a cat 3 or 4????

I'm not sure I want to know... both Ivan and Opal were very bad for Pensacola and you weren't in the worst of either storm.

[ncweatherwizard]

Local mets here have been mentioning maybe a borderline Cat3/4 at landfall.But a AL/FL state border landfall would be worst case scenerio for Pensacola.The damage could be MUCH worse than Ivan in this area.

WHy is that..didnt Ivan hit the same area?

Yes... but Ivan was a little weaker AND whatever trees are left have been weakened by Ivan/Arlene plus all the rainfall the area has had meaning they could fall in weaker winds.

Yes, just a Category 2 hurricane could do significant damage in this area now...not that a Category 2 is anything to play around with, but it is certainly not as bad as a Cat 3 or 4.

[Droop12]

This isnt good. Most of the time I've been banking on a 2/3. Im praying for some weakening in the Northern Gulf or else this is going to be bad. Pray along with me folks, Im sure theres only a few people on here that would really love to see a cat 5 hit somewhere, but for the rest lets hope Dennis weakens a lot.

[stormy1959]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Not official, just my guess looking at this vapor loop. Looks like NE flow in nothern gulf adding in the trough. If this turns out to be accurate I nominate myself for the HAAFW award of the day.

[fci]

Here's hoping for the best for you; Opal and Droop.
I can't imagine what a 3/4 would do since the damage we have all seen in Florida the past year has been from the effects of a 1/2 upon arrival. The exception being Charley which was over a a very small area.
Hopes are for a lot of weakening before it gets there.