Does anyone think the slow down...

[tampastorm]

to 12 mph will have an affect? It usually does come down to timing.

[ColdFront77]

Perhaps a bit of a turn. Tropical cyclones can't go the same speed while making a dramatic or subtle turns.

[Deenac813]

Perhaps a bit of a turn. Tropical cyclones can't go the same speed while making a dramatic or subtle turns.

But which way? WNW or More North?

[tampastorm]

That would be the main change, ageed.

[canegrl04]

Wouldn't it be crazy if he just skimmed along the Cuban coast before entering the GOM?

[wxwatcher91]

also this slowdown gives the high enough time to possibly fall back a bit and the ULL more time to push eastward... I'm thinking this could indicate a more northerly track over the next 6 to 12 hours

[ericinmia]

More north in my opinion. The ridge is/has receded undeniably already on many stearing levels.
-Eric

[wxwonder12]

Sorry for the dumb question but why are all the computer models tracked more to the west if the high could move out and Dennis turn more to the N??

[ericinmia]

Sorry for the dumb question but why are all the computer models tracked more to the west if the high could move out and Dennis turn more to the N??

The high was building in when they ran last... it has since then retreated.
Check the CIMSS if your don't believe.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm4.html

[wxcrazytwo]

you might be correct on this eric. I definitely see a more NNW movement, but I believe it will shift more to the right a little..

[BamaMan]

One thing to remember though is that when a storm becomes this powerful they do begin to create their own environment. Less outer influences can affect them. Just my 2 cents worth on this subject. One thing for sure is that all of us from LA to the upper west coast of FLA need to be watchin and prayin.

[jamima]

When will the models run agian? Do you think they will shift east?

[Scott_inVA]

When will the models run agian? Do you think they will shift east?

Fri 12Z models came out a few minutes ago...very slight shift west.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

[MannyG]

Very slight shift west but disturbing for me in New Orleans.

Is Ukmet down; it is saying the exact same thing with Central Louisiana.
NOGAPS & GFDL puts this thing through Mississippi.
GFS & Bam sticks with Pensacola.

[wxwatcher91]

but the 12z models probably didnt have enough time to take in the NNW turn that has occured during the past half an hour

[Scott_inVA]

Very slight shift west but disturbing for me in New Orleans.

Is Ukmet down; it is saying the exact same thing with Central Louisiana.
NOGAPS & GFDL puts this thing through Mississippi.
GFS & Bam sticks with Pensacola.

Last UKie I ran is 0Z...you're right, still C LA.
It and the (interpolated) MM5 are about the only models landfalling in LA.

Scott

[boca]

Bermuda high is obviously strong enough to keep at least Northern South Florida in the clear ( Palm Beach County). I think we'll miss even the outter rain bands from Dennis.

[Scorpion]

Dont know about missing the rain bands. Its jogging more north now and the high is retreating.