Latest on the questionable strength of the ridge

tim_in_ga · #21 Postby **tim_in_ga** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 9:28 pm

Saw that too. What's up?

x-y-no · #22 Postby **x-y-no** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 9:29 pm

ericinmia wrote:
That image was actually from 2pm edt... or 18z

It was over 7 hours old when posted. So the conditions could be much different.
-Eric

No ... it was from 21Z - 5pm EDT

And regardless of that, the trend during the whole day has been as I described.

Jan

#23 Postby **ericinmia** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 9:37 pm

I am not sure about why 00z doesn't report, it usually is like that.

X-Y-NO, sorry i coppied the link from the wrong picture for comparison. but,

If you compare the EXACT SAME steering maps from those times...
You will see the high erroding, and backing out east.

18z:

21z:

I am anxiously waiting to see the new 03z maps, that should be out by 12am or so. (03z really is 11pm though, maps are usually delayed)
You only can tell so much from sat images, let me go find some QuickScats...
-Eric

EDIT:
Here is the QuickScat... (9:35pm)
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas75.png

NorthGaWeather · #24 Postby **NorthGaWeather** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 10:17 pm

Now this doesn't mean the ridge won't pull out but all of this arguing today about the ridge lifting out has been bogus.

DATA FROM A
TWO-AIRCRAFT SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION SHOWS THAT A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED ALONG 26N OVER
FLOIDA AND THE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO.

#25 Postby **loon** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 4:07 am

Well, and thing is, its getting even more defined. Much like I was thinking, (and ericinmia) its starting to fill back in. Check out the 0300Z vs the 0000Z. Notice also its getting stronger IMHO....however this could change in later obs....

latest

0000Z

2100Z yesterday

Again, I'm making no predictions on whats GOING TO HAPPEN with this ridge...but as I hinted before, Dennis might make it past Cuba's western edge before turning again, making this a new ball game.

cheers
loon

Anonymous · #26 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 4:13 am

Weatherboy1 wrote:speaking of what people are seeing in SE FL, I saw an amazing sunset here. Clear skies to the west, but ominous looking thunderclouds offshore with a massive anvil-type peak blowing off to the NW. The setting sun reflected off the cloudtops and created an eerie reddish-pink glow over the whole area. If I remember "Isaac's Storm" (haven't read it in a while), that's what the namesake character saw out over the Gulf as that hurricane moved toward Galveston (no, I'm not saying Dennis will hit me in Jupiter, just remarking on what I saw)

-Mike

I always thought it was:
red at morning is a sailors warning and red at night was a sailors delight.
Just a thought :wink:

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #27 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 4:17 am

Looking like the ridge is holding pretty tight. Might force the storm more westward.

I think Dennis seen that hurricane on Jupiter. In wents to be just like it for earth.

#28 Postby **loon** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 4:22 am

Wow, 0600Z just came out....the ridge is building like crazy...maybe a met can better analyze this...

This could get interesting

cheers
loon

#29 Postby **loon** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 4:27 am

ericinmia, if you see this, please let me know what you're thinking is also.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #30 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 4:30 am

I'm thinking that New orleans an Mobile is in deep $#$$ looking at those maps.

wxwatcher91 · #31 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 4:37 am

yes agreed loon :wink:

wxwatcher91 · #32 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 4:40 am

the high doesnt even show up here

#33 Postby **ericinmia** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 5:49 am

Here is what i am seeing as of the 06z image, and the synoptic trends.

At the moment it appears that the upper level stearing currents in the ridge are weak over florida; however, the lower level currents especially the 500-400 levels are all stronger and building westward a little. They are the ones that steer the hurricane. The 300 is a very important steering layer also for hurricanes, and it appears to be strengthening, but retrograding a little.

With the current motion of the storm it should be near the west-central cuban coast near 3am. I think the Ridge id going to re-center sw of its current location, weakening the extension over florida. This will allow the storm to continue north to the pensacola area. The timing of this is critical though, for obvious reasons on the track. So if the storm is going faster the track will be more west, but a slower storm will head farther east into the florida panhandle.

That is all for now, if i were to notice anything else, i'll post it up.
-Eric

#34 Postby **drudd1** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 6:01 am

Fantastic discussion guys, keep it up!

#35 Postby **ericinmia** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 6:13 am

This is not a good sign....

Here are the new 09z maps that just came out.
500mb, 400mb, 300mb in order...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm2.GIF

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm3.GIF

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm4.GIF

That shows the ridge retrograding MUCH faster than my poor forecast above. I am not set on this changing the forward motion though as of yet.
-Eric

#36 Postby **jlauderdal** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 6:15 am

ericinmia wrote:This is not a good sign....

Here are the new 09z maps that just came out.
500mb, 400mb, 300mb in order...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm2.GIF

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm3.GIF

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm4.GIF

That shows the ridge retrograding MUCH faster than my poor forecast above. I am not set on this changing the forward motion though as of yet.
-Eric

eric,

what do think this means in terms of heavy weather for our area?

HurryKane · #37 Postby **HurryKane** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 6:16 am

ericinmia wrote:This is not a good sign....

Here are the new 09z maps that just came out.
500mb, 400mb, 300mb in order...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm2.GIF

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm3.GIF

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm4.GIF

That shows the ridge retrograding MUCH faster than my poor forecast above. I am not set on this changing the forward motion though as of yet.
-Eric

Wow, what is causing it to pull back like that? Thanks.

#38 Postby **ericinmia** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 6:16 am

I better put on my asbestos suit to brave the flamming i am going to get for this, but i believe this will allow the storm to head more northerly. Mabye actually resume its NW course, if it can engage the mountains of cuba that it has been staying away from like the plague.

-Eric

jpigott · #39 Postby **jpigott** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 6:34 am

wow, those maps really do have the ridge retreating, could be in for an afternoon/evening of squally weather here in palm beach county

#40 Postby **loon** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 6:36 am

ericinmia wrote:I better put on my asbestos suit to brave the flamming i am going to get for this, but i believe this will allow the storm to head more northerly. Mabye actually resume its NW course, if it can engage the mountains of cuba that it has been staying away from like the plague.
-Eric

I can see what you're saying......Maybe the 1200Z will have a better clue, but the ridge is changing somewhat

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