Solid NW movement may come to an end soon

Scorpion · #161 Postby **Scorpion** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 5:30 pm

Yep thats what Ive been saying.

HardCard · #162 Postby **HardCard** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 5:35 pm

I do see a nnw.. god forbid I say this, but I think's a wobble caused by the disruption the storm is getting from jamaica

gkrangers · #163 Postby **gkrangers** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:14 pm

No idea what you are talking about Kevin.

gkrangers · #164 Postby **gkrangers** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:17 pm

Convection can be decieving. Blowups make it difficult to determine motion sometimes. I really, really doubt its moving NNW.

Myersgirl · #165 Postby **Myersgirl** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:18 pm

Kevin... I must be crazy also, it certainly isn't going less Northerly

MONTEGUT_LA · #166 Postby **MONTEGUT_LA** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 8:12 pm

skysummit wrote:Hmm...I won't buy that just yet. I'll have to see it to believe it. Please do continue posting your thoughts though

Where in Houma do you live?

#167 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 8:16 pm

Storm will likely jog west around Cabo Cruz (the point that he is now nearing) before returning to the general NW to WNW heading. The eyewall (and perhaps even the eye) will still cross the coastline shortly, but friction should act to stear the storm towards the west for a brief period. This is already evident in the last few frames of the IR imagery. Also notice that the eye has become very distinct - is nearly clearing all the way out!

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
zoom and loop it

Normandy · #168 Postby **Normandy** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 8:18 pm

Cabo Cruz is gonna get leveled :cry:

Stratosphere747 · #169 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 8:21 pm

Amazing how it seems like it wants to avoid land...Big jog to the west trying to avoid it..

Ixolib · #170 Postby **Ixolib** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 8:21 pm

PurdueWx80 wrote:Storm will likely jog west around Cabo Cruz (the point that he is now nearing) before returning to the general NW to WNW heading. The eyewall (and perhaps even the eye) will still cross the coastline shortly, but friction should act to stear the storm towards the west for a brief period. This is already evident in the last few frames of the IR imagery. Also notice that the eye has become very distinct - is nearly clearing all the way out!

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
zoom and loop it

Will he go annular???

Stratosphere747 · #171 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 8:22 pm

Amazing how it seems like it wants to avoid land...Big jog to the west trying to avoid it..

#172 Postby **Stormcenter** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 8:50 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:Amazing how it seems like it wants to avoid land...Big jog to the west trying to avoid it..

Reminds me of Ivan, hmmmmmmmmmmm.

#173 Postby **loon** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 4:20 am

Well, after the "ridge is going away" vs the "ridge is rebuilding" fiasco in this thread, this morning a new tune is being sung out there in the atmosphere, and the ridge did indeed (so far) rebuild. I think you will see the NHC respond to this on the 8AM....maybe.....I eagerly await more data about the environment, especially what is happening to the ridge, as it looks to me anyway (I'm no pro) as its getting alot stronger this morning.

wxwatcher91 · #174 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 4:48 am

Yeah its like Ivan doing that tight turn right around Jamaica

Nimbus · #175 Postby **Nimbus** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 5:29 am

Pretty clear trend in the track back toward the WNW for now.
The models are likely to take some time playing catch up if the ridge is in fact still building west into the gulf.
With the new 50 hour NOLA evacuation plan the NHC has some time yet before swinging the track west that far.
I'm sure they are watching the ridge carefully for steering clues but obviously they have to be conservative.

Everybody was hoping the interaction with Cuba would knock Dennis back down to a cat 2 but it only tightened the circulation.
The Florida peninsula is no longer in the cone so the discussions about south Florida landfalls should drop off the board today.
Looks like only western Cuba stands between Dennis and the northern gulf coast.

HurryKane · #176 Postby **HurryKane** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 5:32 am

Nimbus wrote:
Everybody was hoping the interaction with Cuba would knock Dennis back down to a cat 2 but it only tightened the circulation.
The Florida panhandle is no longer in the cone so the discussions about south Florida landfalls should drop off the board today.
Looks like only western Cuba stands between Dennis and the northern gulf coast.

You mean the peninsula, right?

#177 Postby **loon** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 5:37 am

Nimbus wrote:The Florida peninsula is no longer in the cone so the discussions about south Florida landfalls should drop off the board today.
Looks like only western Cuba stands between Dennis and the northern gulf coast.

HAHAHAHA, come on now...first time here or what? Nobody from Texas to All of Florida will give up when it comes to wishing it their way. If you think just because things *look* to be changing everyone won't still have theories of how it can still get to Florida, or still get to Texas, pfft......

wxwatcher91 · #178 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 5:42 am

yep! and I have some good theories too!

-from New England so im all for it hitting Florida and then coming up the coast!

seriously though... the discussions should still continue about any place within 100 or 200 miles of the cone... the cone can still move around a good amount

#179 Postby **loon** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 5:45 am

wxwatcher91 wrote:yep! and I have some good theories too!

-from New England so im all for it hitting Florida and then coming up the coast!

seriously though... the discussions should still continue about any place within 100 or 200 miles of the cone... the cone can still move around a good amount

I totally agree..but once the cone gets set, you chances of having a rational conversation about any storm moving any direction but where the cone is, or where people want it to be, is highly unlikely, especially getting close like it is now. I'm for one think the cone will move today, due to my thinking of how far west Dennis will go today, and then will likely move back tomorrow, after/if Dennis starts a move again....all speculation, I'm waiting for more regional obs first.

#180 Postby **TampaFl** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 5:47 am

Nimbus wrote:Pretty clear trend in the track back toward the WNW for now.
The Florida peninsula is no longer in the cone so the discussions about south Florida landfalls should drop off the board today.
Looks like only western Cuba stands between Dennis and the northern gulf coast.

The Florida peninsular is by no means off the "hook" as you state. The cone is hugging the west coast and any deviations to the right of the track could change things for the peninsula. Sometimes the interaction with land can cause these track deviations. Lets just see how Dennis interacts track wise with land as he crosses Cuba.

Robert 8-)

Solid NW movement may come to an end soon

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