Dennis forecast #5: Close Call for the West Coast

[Josephine96]

EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST
HURRICANE DENNIS
NJN WEATHER CENTER
605 AM FRI JULY 8TH 2005

Hurricane Dennis continues to swirl along this morning and is a very strong category 3 with winds around 125 mph.

Dennis did some slight weakening over night interacting with the land, but that is expected when a hurricane crosses over land.

Between now and this time tomorrow is when it may get very interesting. The far Western side of the High has apparently eroded a little, and there is a trough coming out of the Midwest that may enter the GOM.

The question is.. would the trough have enough of an impact to send Dennis N and then NE or would it stay on a NW to WNW course.

Dennis will be crossing over Western Cuba and then may begin to head further North. The question is.. how close to the West Coast will he be. Last night there was a model that stated Dennis could get VERY CLOSE to the West Coast and ride the coast all the way up before a Panhandle landfall.

My forecast has Dennis making landfall near the Big Bend area to maybe just a little further West around Tallahassee. I believe the trough will have enough impact on Dennis and the slightly eroding ridge in order to make this N and then quick jerk to the NE.

Dennis could also be and is most likely going to be a very dangerous hurricane at US landfall, so all coastal residents, especially in watch and warning areas need to prepare and pay attention.

Here's my experimental outlook on Dennis:
Today: Passing over Western Cuba. Max Winds: 130 mph
Saturday: Re-emerging in the GOM. Dangerously close to the Western Florida Keys. Max Winds: 115 mph
Sunday: Moving Northward. Max Winds: 125 mph
Monday: Dangerously close to the West Coast, then making landfall in Cedar Key. Max Winds: 135 mph
Tuesday: InTO THE SE and weakening. Max winds: 65 mph

[b]DISCLAIMER:The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

What do you get the 125 mph from??? The recon found that it was still a cat4 with 135 mph winds a few hours ago. In this system has become much better defined since then. It also has developed a very well defined Cdo(Dark reds) With a pin hole eye. If anything this is stronger then it was from the last recon.

Also this has been moving west-northwestward for at least 6 hours. The models(Hurricane models,Globals,Nhc) Has all moved westward. Mobile looks to be at threat at this moment.

[wxwatcher91]

umm it hasnt done much weakening... the pressure has dropped about 5 more mbs and winds are up to 135mph

[Josephine96]

whoops..

Must be 1/2 asleep. I could have sworn the graphic on TV said 125 mph.. lol

[wxwatcher91]

lol... take a quick nap then throw a forecast at us