Check out this IR loop, track is not good...

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NFLnut
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#41 Postby NFLnut » Fri Jul 08, 2005 12:46 am

It's just a normal wobble that is to be expected, especially with an ERC. Still, even with the wobble, it still looks like the NHC forecast points are pretty spot on.
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#42 Postby Swimdude » Fri Jul 08, 2005 12:49 am

All righty, I can't figure it out. Abbriviation "ERC" means what exactly?
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#43 Postby Wnghs2007 » Fri Jul 08, 2005 12:50 am

Swimdude wrote:All righty, I can't figure it out. Abbriviation "ERC" means what exactly?


ERC = Eyewall Replacement Cycle

RIC= Rapid Intensification Cycle
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#44 Postby Swimdude » Fri Jul 08, 2005 12:51 am

Thanks a million! 8-)
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#45 Postby Wnghs2007 » Fri Jul 08, 2005 12:51 am

Swimdude wrote:Thanks a million! 8-)


Your Welcome. 8-)
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#46 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Jul 08, 2005 12:51 am

As it moves west that part of cuba that curves northward. Should give it more room to get its act together. I think its moving west-northwest at this rate should be moving into more water to bomb again. Its getting better defined by the minute.
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#47 Postby Scorpion » Fri Jul 08, 2005 12:53 am

Its a short term wobble. Overrall direction is NW.
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#48 Postby Stratosphere747 » Fri Jul 08, 2005 12:54 am

This IMO is not a ERC...

It is just getting it's act back together again after losing some symmetry while quickly going over land...
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#49 Postby Swimdude » Fri Jul 08, 2005 12:55 am

Just a quick side note: Shouldn't we have another advisory from the NHC, you know, a few minutes ago? And usually their advisories come early... :?:
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#50 Postby Normandy » Fri Jul 08, 2005 12:55 am

Im also starting to thing a bigger eye might form.
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#51 Postby jkt21787 » Fri Jul 08, 2005 12:55 am

FWIW, 2 am keeps a NW movement. I'm sure they won't change though until 5 am and only if necessary of course.

Winds remain at 135. Pressure is :uarrow: to 955. Could be an ERC.
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#52 Postby Stratosphere747 » Fri Jul 08, 2005 12:56 am

Swimdude wrote:Just a quick side note: Shouldn't we have another advisory from the NHC, you know, a few minutes ago? And usually their advisories come early... :?:


They may be waiting to get some more recon info in...
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#53 Postby NorthGaWeather » Fri Jul 08, 2005 12:57 am

11PM Coords
19.9 N
77.6 W

2AM Coords
20.3 N
78.5 W

.4 N
.9 W

Not NW.
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#54 Postby jkt21787 » Fri Jul 08, 2005 12:57 am

Stratosphere747 wrote:
Swimdude wrote:Just a quick side note: Shouldn't we have another advisory from the NHC, you know, a few minutes ago? And usually their advisories come early... :?:


They may be waiting to get some more recon info in...

Its been in a couple of minutes now. See above for basics, full advisory added to stickied thread.
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#55 Postby Stratosphere747 » Fri Jul 08, 2005 12:59 am

jkt21787 wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:
Swimdude wrote:Just a quick side note: Shouldn't we have another advisory from the NHC, you know, a few minutes ago? And usually their advisories come early... :?:


They may be waiting to get some more recon info in...

Its been in a couple of minutes now. See above for basics, full advisory added to stickied thread.


Seen that...

A bit W of NW as they say, could be interesting...

UKm may be on to something..
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#56 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:00 am

.4 north/1.0 west thats west-northwest... 8-)
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Scorpion

#57 Postby Scorpion » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:00 am

Wobble I might add. Been wobbling north all day, average out its NW.
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#58 Postby mtm4319 » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:01 am

A 300 (or less) heading from here on out would put Dennis in the extremely warm waters between the northwest Cuba and the Isle of Youth (the lighter blue water).

Image

(The current position is only an estimate of course.)

310 would put it right over Havana.
Last edited by mtm4319 on Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#59 Postby Normandy » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:01 am

It hasnt moved this westward since it was a few hours from hitting Jamaica......
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#60 Postby Swimdude » Fri Jul 08, 2005 1:02 am

Yup, just saw it. It seems interesting that they're still saying NW... Perhaps disregarding this apparent wobble? However "paralleling the Cuban coast", as the NHC stated, would mean more of a WNW movement. I'm also surprised that Dennis maintained cat. 4 status. VERY surprised. And worried about what could happen now...
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