00Z Models between NOLA and Pcola

[mobilebay]

GFS - Takes it into Destin, Florida. (right outlier)
NAM- Pensacola, Florida
NOGAPS- Biloxi Mississsippi
Ukmet- New Orleans (left outlier)
Canadian- Gulfport, Mississippi
EURO- Mobile,Alabama
GFDL-Pensacola
BAMM- Pensacola

[PTPatrick]

where did you get the nogaps

[LSU2001]

Looks to me as if three have shifted west from previous runs but I could very well be wrong.
TIm

[mobilebay]

where did you get the nogaps

Here you go!
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... rp&tau=072

[mtm4319]

GFS - Takes it into Destin, Florida. (right outlier)
NAM- Pensacola, Florida
NOGAPS- Biloxi Mississsippi
Ukmet- New Orleans (left outlier)
Canadian- Gulfport, Mississippi

So from west to east:

New Orleans
Gulfport
Biloxi
(Mobile)
Pensacola
Destin

Not good for us, eh?

[LSU2001]

Sounds like a party road trip for spring break.

[LSU2001]

seriously,
that would put pascagoula as the mid-point would it not.
TIm

with mobile in the North east Quad
BAAADDDDDDDDDDD

[Steve]

UKMET doesn't hit New Orleans. It's insisting on a South Central Louisiana hit (Terrebonne/St. Mary/Iberia Parishes). New Orleans is right along Lake Pontchartrain. UKMET puts is in the NE Quadrant about as much as Andrew did, and all that was was a few inches of rain a whole lot of tropical storm force winds.

Time to check the European to see if it's out.

Steve

[jax]

Pecan...

[rsdoug1981]

UKMET doesn't hit New Orleans. It's insisting on a South Central Louisiana hit (Terrebonne/St. Mary/Iberia Parishes). New Orleans is right along Lake Pontchartrain. UKMET puts is in the NE Quadrant about as much as Andrew did, and all that was was a few inches of rain a whole lot of tropical storm force winds.

Time to check the European to see if it's out.

Steve

Euro should come out around 1:15-1:30...I'll be up for it, too. So far, here in BR, I'm thrilled about the rest of the models tonight..

[mobilebay]

UKMET doesn't hit New Orleans. It's insisting on a South Central Louisiana hit (Terrebonne/St. Mary/Iberia Parishes). New Orleans is right along Lake Pontchartrain. UKMET puts is in the NE Quadrant about as much as Andrew did, and all that was was a few inches of rain a whole lot of tropical storm force winds.

Time to check the European to see if it's out.

Steve

Euro should come out around 1:15-1:30...I'll be up for it, too. So far, here in BR, I'm thrilled about the rest of the models tonight..

Where did the 12Z run of the Euro put it?

[jkt21787]

UKMET doesn't hit New Orleans. It's insisting on a South Central Louisiana hit (Terrebonne/St. Mary/Iberia Parishes). New Orleans is right along Lake Pontchartrain. UKMET puts is in the NE Quadrant about as much as Andrew did, and all that was was a few inches of rain a whole lot of tropical storm force winds.

Time to check the European to see if it's out.

Steve

Euro should come out around 1:15-1:30...I'll be up for it, too. So far, here in BR, I'm thrilled about the rest of the models tonight..

Where did the 12Z run of the Euro pudt it?

It was a NO to Mobile area landfall I believe.

[rsdoug1981]

The best I could tell, it put it in MS..

[mobilebay]

The best I could tell, it put it in MS..

Thanks, I never think to look at the Euro.

[rsdoug1981]

The best I could tell, it put it in MS..

Thanks, I never think to look at the Euro.

It's kind of the dark horse model...No one really pays it much attention, but when it's on, it's on. When it's off...it's usually way off.

[Mobile Expat]

Anybody got a link to the Euro model?

I'm in Mobile for the week, trying to decide whether to stay and continue visiting relatives or go back to Arizona early.

[Steve]

>>Thanks, I never think to look at the Euro.

The ECMWF is often one of the best models from mid-range. It has its biases, but handles tropical waves out 4-5 days far better than the US models. Usually it shows them as a ripple in the isobar lines rather than developing them, but then again, I don't have access to good resolutions, only what they give you for free. UNISYS is always a day or so behind with the ECMWF so you have to go to their site to get it. One of its biases though is that it often carries stuff on over to the Pacific or into southern Mexico by underdeveloping waves. The only access you get free is for 3, 4, 5 and 6 days out so we're getting past the point of no return with that model. After tomorrow, it won't be useful for us model mongers.

Steve

[Steve]

Here's the link. You won't be able to do anything with it until it's posted.

http://www.ecmwf.int/

Here are the instructions once it's up (which it isn't right now):

1. Click the maps under "Deterministic medium-range forecast charts"
2. Click North America
3. Choose the run you want and hit the > (play) arrow and it will give you days 3, 4, 5 and 6. I think it's run out longer (300 hours?) , but you have to have researcher access to get it at that level.

Steve

[Steve]

Scratch that. Dupage (sp?) College has a better link to the ECMWF runs:

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

Steve

[clfenwi]

From HPC's model diagnostic discussion

MODEL TRENDS...

...HRCN DENNIS...

NAM HAS TRENDED SUBSTANTIALLY WWD WITH ITS TRACK OF THE STORM...
NOW BRINGING IT INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO INSTEAD OF UP THE FL
PENINSULA. NEW RUN PROJECTS LANDFALL OVER THE WRN FL PANHANDLE
JUST PRIOR TO F72.

GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND WWD WITH ITS TRACK OF THE
STORM...AS WELL AS A FEW MB DEEPER WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE. NEW
RUN PROJECTS LANDFALL OVER THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AT F66.

...

MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES...

...HRCN DENNIS...

NAM TRACKS DENNIS SLIGHTLY W OF THE GFS THRU THE PD...AND IS
CONSIDERABLY SHALLOWER WITH THE STORMS CENTRAL PRESSURE. AT F48
...THE GFS POSITION OF THE STORM EXACTLY COINCIDES WITH THE
OFFICIAL TPC FORECAST...BUT PULLS TO THE RIGHT OF TPC FOR THE
SUBSEQUENT DAY AND A HALF. THE NAM STARTS LEFT OF THE TPC
TRACK...BUT CROSSES IT EXACTLY AROUND THE ANTICIPATED TIME OF
LANDFALL JUST PRIOR TO F72. THEREAFTER...THE NAM IS TO THE LEFT
OF TPC GUIDANCE AGAIN...WITH THE GFS COMING BACK ON COURSE OVER
NWRN AL BY F84.

OVERALL PREFER THE GFS MASS FIELDS OVER THE NAMS WITH DENNIS
MAINLY BECAUSE OF ITS MORE REALISTIC DEPTH. AND EXCEPT FOR THE
SMALL WINDOW AROUND LANDFALL...THE GFS TRACK IS CLOSER TO THE
OFFICIAL PROJECTION FROM TPC.