Candian GEM... WAY off... explained...

#1 Postby **ericinmia** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:32 pm

I am not sure why it is intializing soo wrong, but look what it claims will happen in the next 12 hours... The image shows a dot in red where Dennis is right now. But, then the image shows where the GEM "Canadian" model takes it in 12 hours. The model wants to move Dennis 4.5 degrees DUE WEST starting this minute.
The rest is self explanatory.
-Eric

#2 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:34 pm

Dude, you're looking at the 500 mb chart. If you find the vort center on there (the plus mark), it shows it moving northwest to perhaps WNW over a 12-hour period, assuming you have plotted the red dot correctly to begin with. Chill!

#3 Postby **ericinmia** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:37 pm

I just cut one image... to draw on...

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/model_for ... bal_e.html

I am far from tense, let alone freaking out.
Prove me wrong if i am, i would appreciate it since i am not the most knowledgeable.

btw. sorry for making a new thread, but i didn't want to post in all the GEM threads.

NorthGaWeather · #4 Postby **NorthGaWeather** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:46 pm

ericinmia wrote:I am far from tense, let alone freaking out.
Prove me wrong if i am, i would appreciate it since i am not the most knowledgeable.

You've been borderline freaking out all day about the ridge. BTW, I think Purdue proved his point, nothing more needed really.

jkt21787 · #5 Postby **jkt21787** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:49 pm

Its funny that I of course am in support (although not completely at all) of the new CMC while the FL people are screaming out, while I was screaming out when it was FL and the others were praising it.

WE ALL need to relax about this. Take it in slowly.

I certainly will wait for 12z for additional support of this.

rtd2 · #6 Postby **rtd2** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:49 pm

NorthGaWeather wrote:
ericinmia wrote:I am far from tense, let alone freaking out.
Prove me wrong if i am, i would appreciate it since i am not the most knowledgeable.

You've been borderline freaking out all day about the ridge. BTW, I think Purdue proved his point, nothing more needed really.

I too think the Ridge eroding talk is a little Over hyped I dont see the ridge weakening as much as forecasted..

#7 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:52 pm

Eric, I posted a reply in the other 00z GEM thread in case the lock this one.

#8 Postby **ericinmia** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:52 pm

Thats cute, so posting data is freaking out. Show me a quote where i was loosing it.

How many cat5's have you gone through, i am the least bit scared of this cane. My house was built to withstand cat5's.
Sure i use strong words to grab attention sometimes, that is called marketing.
-Eric

mobilebay · #9 Postby **mobilebay** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:52 pm

Here is a break down of the models.
00Z models

NAM=Pensacola
NOGAPS=Biloxi
UKMET=New Orleans
GFS= just East of Pensacolal(destin area)
Canadian=Gulfport

Pretty tightly clustered if you ask me!

Stratosphere747 · #10 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:53 pm

We our all learning Eric....

I can attest though to the fact that I found Purdue to be one of the VERY best amateur mets last year during all the storms, and glad to see him back...

It does seem though that it would have to take a fairly good shift to the west soon.

gkrangers · #11 Postby **gkrangers** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:55 pm

Tightly clustered for sure...the problem is...the Canadian, UKMET, and GFS are all a bit whacky tonight early on. The GFS to far north on the 00z and the other two to far west...they get it together in the gulf...but its a matter of where the storm emerges into the gulf is our problem.

jkt21787 · #12 Postby **jkt21787** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:56 pm

gkrangers wrote:Tightly clustered for sure...the problem is...the Canadian, UKMET, and GFS are all a bit whacky tonight early on. The GFS to far north on the 00z and the other two to far west...they get it together in the gulf...but its a matter of where the storm emerges into the gulf is our problem.

What a surprise, we wait for the next model run. :wink:

Website · #13 Postby **FritzPaul** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:56 pm

Has anyone heard about the super-secret FSU-Super-Ensemble's predicted path?

#14 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:56 pm

Actually, I am a degreed meteorologist - don't work in forecasting now but I am a met - need to talk to the mods about that.

#15 Postby **ericinmia** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:58 pm

PurdueWx80 wrote:Actually, I am a degreed meteorologist - don't work in forecasting now but I am a met - need to talk to the mods about that.

That is something to be proud of most definately. Then could you tell me what it is that is wrong with saying that i don't believe that the storm will head west that quickly?
-Eric

Stratosphere747 · #16 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:58 pm

PurdueWx80 wrote:Actually, I am a degreed meteorologist - don't work in forecasting now but I am a met - need to talk to the mods about that.

Sorry about that...Did'nt realize..

Either way I found your views some of the best last year...

Now how about a forecast..

rtd2 · #17 Postby **rtd2** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:58 pm

PurdueWx80 wrote:Actually, I am a degreed meteorologist - don't work in forecasting now but I am a met - need to talk to the mods about that.

Glad to See you input!

Wnghs2007 · #18 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:59 pm

Well for the Canadian and UKMET to be right It would have to go at a 280 degree angle. Thats the only way this thing will pass anywhere close to where they are showing it...The Eye wall is really in Shambles right now also and looks to be on the NW side of the Convection. It might even make landfall again soon.

Im not going to make a direct call on this thing until Tomorrow night...Where it is then will determine everything.

Im going to bed and am going to be gone all day tomorrow...lol thats why I say tomorrow night. Well Good Night :lol:

Website · #19 Postby **FritzPaul** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 12:06 am

Maybe some of you pros can help me out.

I use tracking-the-eye software for my storm plotting.

I would like to plot individual model forecasts. (ex: UK, Canadian, GFS, etc)

I got 2 questions:

1. What are the Z-times each model is run (I know the conversion from Z to EDT. I was looking for the times each model was run).

2. Can anyone give me links for these models that give text coordinates
as opposed to the graphical representations.

I know this is a lot to ask but anybodies help would be appreciated greatly. FP

#20 Postby **LSU2001** » Fri Jul 08, 2005 12:09 am

GMT EDT
----------------------
00z 8:00pm
06z 2:00am
12z 8:00am
18z 2:00pm

Candian GEM... WAY off... explained...

Candian GEM... WAY off... explained...

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