Canadian: New Orleans-Gulfport!!

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jkt21787
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Canadian: New Orleans-Gulfport!!

#1 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:15 pm

http://ggweather.com/loops/canada_all.htm
Still coming in and haven't analyzed much, just a glance, but it appears to be a Mobile hit.

Thats of course much further west than previous runs
Last edited by jkt21787 on Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:20 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#2 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:16 pm

Edit: Its a New Orleans Hit!
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Yuck

#3 Postby bevgo » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:17 pm

Not good at all
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#4 Postby skysummit » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:18 pm

jkt21787 wrote:Edit: Its a New Orleans Hit!


Actually that looks like Bay St. Louis, Ms. :D
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#5 Postby FritzPaul » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:18 pm

That's not Mobile! That's Biloxi via mouth of MS river, but hopefully this is an outlier model!
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#6 Postby dhweather » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:18 pm

skysummit wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:Edit: Its a New Orleans Hit!


Actually that looks like Bay St. Louis, Ms. :D


Bingo - that's a camille path right there.
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#7 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:18 pm

skysummit wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:Edit: Its a New Orleans Hit!


Actually that looks like Bay St. Louis, Ms. :D

Its a little hard to tell. Between NO and the MS coast.
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#8 Postby goodlife » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:19 pm

That's an AWFULLY big shift from previous paths....
What's it seeing different now than before?
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#9 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:20 pm

FritzPaul wrote:That's not Mobile! That's Biloxi via mouth of MS river, but hopefully this is an outlier model!

Yes, I correctly edited the title.

I DEFINITELY want to see the UKMET and Euro Now.

Not sure what to make of this yet. This is a HUGE shift.
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#10 Postby BRCop » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:20 pm

Looks like a Gulfport/Biloxi hit to me. That would still push a lot of water into Lake Ponchatrain.
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#11 Postby dhweather » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:20 pm

It's all in the interpretation of the ridge.
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#12 Postby Swimdude » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:24 pm

BRCop wrote:Looks like a Gulfport/Biloxi hit to me. That would still push a lot of water into Lake Ponchatrain.



Same path as Camille... How did New Orleans fare in that one?
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#13 Postby goodlife » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:25 pm

anybody know anything about this model?
http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready-bin/animation.pl?id=MM5&mdl=grads/afwa/panel2&file=anim
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#14 Postby LSU2001 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:25 pm

This really sucks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I really want to see the movement of the rest of the models tomorrow. I don't expect GFDL or others to move because of the GFS but it to moved slightly more west or at least stayed the same last run.
TIM
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#15 Postby Mississippi Storm Magnet » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:26 pm

See? DHWeather, your power is useless against me!
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#16 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:26 pm

lsu2001 wrote:This really sucks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I really want to see the movement of the rest of the models tomorrow. I don't expect GFDL or others to move because of the GFS but it to moved slightly more west or at least stayed the same last run.
TIM

GFDL and the other tropicals will not shift far from GFS.
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#17 Postby dhweather » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:28 pm

Mississippi Storm Magnet wrote:See? DHWeather, your power is useless against me!


Homie, it ain't over till it's over! As soon as Dennis realizes that I live here, he'll head somewhere else. Your powers are negated PLUS
by mine! HA!

I'm going to bed. I'll call you in the morning, assuming you won't be up all night watching this.

We may need to plan a "shutter up" party Saturday.
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#18 Postby LSU2001 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:28 pm

i agree thats what I was trying to say but couldn't get it out.
TIM
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EarthStormFire

#19 Postby EarthStormFire » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:33 pm

Bad news for NOLA, perhaps UKMET isn't an outlier. The whole gulf needs to be watching Dennis very closely. Even those out of the cone, can't be sure.
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gkrangers

#20 Postby gkrangers » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:35 pm

This run of the Canadian still sucks...it takes the storm due west for a while at initialization...which is crap.

The GFS also does some wierd things, taking the storm so far north across Cuba....
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