Dennis Advisorys

[Mac]

There were some interesting comments in the 11 PM discussion that, surprisingly, nobody has addressed yet.

The NHC seems to be wavering in its intensity forecast due to an apparent uncertainty regarding what the "true" SSTs in the Gulf will be. They mention that, although the Gulf waters are quite warm enough to support intensification, the SSTs are very shallow. They seem to be suggesting that they do not know how much "churn" will occur as Dennis passes over the Gulf waters, and that the amount of disruption to the surface waters will ultimately determine how much fuel Dennis has for intensification.

Interestingly, Cindy, albeit a rather mild storm compared to Dennis, did not have much impact on SSTs in the Gulf.

Any thoughts on this matter folks?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree soonertwister.

[Brent]

Oh My Heck...

*snicker* First time I ever heard that...and the last time...was from Neleh on Survivor.

[nolecaster]

Charley bombed over what would be a similar area. I'm not sure but since SSTs have been pretty much elevated throughout the whole basin, it seems like it would be similar to last year?

That said, it's a complete crapshoot, IMO. The ships may be on to something and it might get below a major over Cuba and possibly never make it back....I guess it's either way, then again, I'm just guessing.

Splitting down the middle for a compromise probably makes the most sense right now.

[Cookiely]

Technical breakpoints, you have to be kidding me.

Far more people use mapquest than google, for one thing. All "technical breakpoints" are absolutely worthless for a public advisory.

You have to make your informatin as clear as possible to the public. They are who you are trying to advise. I don't care about technical anything, or whether anyone can find those definitiions on the internet. Until last year, within 24 hours of landfall, you were lucky to even be able to connect with the NHC site due to lack of bandwidth.

Try to figure out where a hurricane could strike within 36 hours, within the cone as defined by NHC. Now you are going to tell me that they acted responsibly with the 11 pm advisory? Most people if not warned will not see another advisory for another 7 hours at least. People have to sleep.

The mission of the NHC is to protect the public to the best of their abilities from disaster, without creating undue panic. Would a tropical storm watch along the west coast of Florida from Fort Myers southward have been ill-advised? According the potential path and vagaraies regarding forward speed, I believe it was necessary to warn those people.

Some people around here are absolulety brain-numbed when it comes to criticizing NHC. I maybe mean lady about their decisions once or twice in a season, yet whenever I complain I'm met with a unified chorus of opposition.

There were people last year with Charlie that noted that a slight path deviation to the right could cause landfall well south of Tampa Bay. Just because people voice an opnion does not automatically mean that the NHC is correct. They are human. Last year, they underestimated what their little dotted line would do to people, and people suffered as a result.

The southwest Florida coast is extremely vulnerable to severe flooding in a strong hurricane on or near the coast in that area. It's identified as one of the most at-risk areas in the United States.

Criticize my opinion all you want, but you won't quell me without banning me from this board. I AM NOT TRYING TO CREATE PANIC, BUT TO ALERT PEOPLE TO A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY THAT THEY MIGHT BE IN SOME DANGER. That isn't irresponsible, it's personal responsibility.

If you want to argue with my assertion, I'll be glad to hear what you say. But to condemn me because I don't disagree with the technicalese used by NHC when they could have easily selected a notable place with an actual zipcode, that's wrong. People don't hang out on weather boards. They need weather delivered clearly and in good time.

I'm not wrong here, at least I don't think I am. If you want to debate me, here I am. Take your best shot.

I agree with you on the breakpoints. I've never understood them and was born and raised in Florida. So if I don't know where these "villages" are then how about the people new to the state or visiting.

[soonertwister]

Matt,

The only thing I'm concerned about is the panic that ensues when people aren't properly warned about their risks in a major hurricane situation. You cannot treat these things lightly. Charley ended up as the second most damaging hurricane in American history in terms of actual dollar loss. The slight deviation to the right caused totally unprepared people to suffer catastophic damage to their property and great threat to their lives.

All those bombs in London today killed maybe 40-something people, Charlie, directly or indirectly, killed around 30. That's the benchmark that people need to make. Charlie didn't come close to deviating from the cone of possible hurricane effect, yet many people were caught unaware, as apparently their local emergency personnel saw no great threat, that is until Charlie made a pitiful 5 degree deviation to the right. For the average Joe, he saw that dotted line, and if it was sufficiently far away, there was no problem. Obviously, that didn't work.

If the NHC has any integrity, then take those places out of the cone if they think they aren't within 36 hours of a tropical storm or hurricane situation. But to ignore their own data and neglect to issue a caution to the people is wrong, in my opinion.

Gerrymander the cone all you want to prevent issuing a warning, but if people are under the "umbrella", when the time comes tell them like it is. Don't pretend it's going elsewhere. NHC is not the god of nature, Nature is the goddess that determines what she will do. Sometimes I think that maybe they need to re-learn that, so that when there's a disaster they did not properly prepare people for, they will face the music for their actions.

They use the cone as their insurance policy of liability, but to say from the left side that anyone within the cone is at risk, and from the right side say that those people are not in danger, well that's the dichotomy that needs to cease to exist.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Matt,

The only thing I'm concerned about is the panic that ensues when people aren't properly warned about their risks in a major hurricane situation. You cannot treat these things lightly. Charley ended up as the second most damaging hurricane in American history in terms of actual dollar loss. The slight deviation to the right caused totally unprepared people to suffer catastophic damage to their property and great threat to their lives.


(Me)
Very much so.


All those bombs in London today killed maybe 40-something people, Charlie, directly or indirectly, killed around 30. That's the benchmark that people need to make. Charlie didn't come close to deviating from the cone of possible hurricane effect, yet many people were caught unaware, as apparently their local emergency personnel saw no great threat, that is until Charlie made a pitiful 5 degree deviation to the right. For the average Joe, he saw that dotted line, and if it was sufficiently far away, there was no problem. Obviously, that didn't work.

(Me)

So very true. They where forecasting Tempa or north of Tempa for days. In they never thought it would be a cat4. What a suprize...



If the NHC has any integrity, then take those places out of the cone if they think they aren't within 36 hours of a tropical storm or hurricane situation. But to ignore their own data and neglect to issue a caution to the people is wrong, in my opinion.

(Me)
I believe with the new shifts in the models to the right they need to take caution now...

Gerrymander the cone all you want to prevent issuing a warning, but if people are under the "umbrella", when the time comes tell them like it is. Don't pretend it's going elsewhere. NHC is not the god of nature, Nature is the goddess that determines what she will do. Sometimes I think that maybe they need to re-learn that, so that when there's a disaster they did not properly prepare people for, they will face the music for their actions.

(Me)
I'v been trying to say for years that the nhc is not god...Of course they have great knowledge. But every one has a option. In very true...As time gets closer they need to issue those warnings/watches.


They use the cone as their insurance policy of liability, but to say from the left side that anyone within the cone is at risk, and from the right side say that those people are not in danger, well that's the dichotomy that needs to cease to exist.

(Me)
Very true if its with in this cone then steps need to be tooken to get people to take it serious.

[Swimdude]

It's so simple... Yet so deceptive!

000
ABNT20 KNHC 072105
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON MAJOR
HURRICANE DENNIS...LOCATED ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUANTANAMO
CUBA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

[jkt21787]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 080552
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005

...SEVERE HURRICANE DENNIS BATTERING EASTERN CUBA...EYE BACK OVER
WATER PARALLELING THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS
...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...
GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND PINAR DEL RIO.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO
OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SOUTH OF
GOLDEN BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO LONGBOAT KEY.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF JAMAICA AND ALL OF
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. WARNINGS IN JAMAICA WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED
LATER THIS MORNING.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DENNIS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
OVER WATER BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 20.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST...OR 80 MILES...125 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF CAMAGUEY AND ABOUT 135 MILES... 215 KM...SOUTHEAST OF TRINIDAD
CUBA.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE EYE OF DENNIS WILL REACH CENTRAL CUBA LATER
TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHILE THE CENTER
OF DENNIS REMAINS OVER WATER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM. CAMAGUEY...CUBA REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 67
MPH...107 KM/HR A FEW HOURS AGO.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS
955 MB...28.20 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH 5
TO 10 INCHES OVER HAITI...JAMAICA...CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA
MAESTRA MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF CUBA EAST OF
CABO CRUZ. A MUCH LARGER STORM SURGE OF NEAR 20 FEET IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA WEST OF CABO CRUZ. A STORM SURGE
OF 3 TO 6 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...20.3 N... 78.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 955 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

[ericinmia]

Hurricane Dennis Advisory Number 15


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on July 08, 2005



...Dangerous Hurricane Danny fury aims at central and western
Cuba...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect for Cuba for The Provinces of la
Habana...Ciudad de la Habana...Matanzas... Villa Clara...
Cienfuegos...Sancti Spiritus...Ciego de Avila...Camaguey...Las
Tunas...Granma...Santiago de Cuba...Holguin and Guantanamo. A
Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Isle of Youth and the
province of Pinar del Rio. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect
for the Cayman Islands.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the lower Florida Keys
from the Seven Mile Bridge westward to the Dry Tortugas. A
Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the
remainder of the Florida Keys...east of the Seven Mile Bridge to
Ocean Reef and Florida Bay.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect along the Florida West Coast
south of Bonita Beach...and along the Florida East Coast south of
Golden Beach. A tropical storm watch is in effect along the
Florida West Coast north of Bonita Beach to Longboat Key.

At 5 am EDT...0900 UTC...the Hurricane Warning for Jamaica has been
discontinued.

A hurricane or Tropical Storm Warning means that hurricane or
tropical storm conditions...respectively...are expected within the
warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane
Warning area. A hurricane or tropical storm watch means that
hurricane or tropical storm conditions...respectively...are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the western Caribbean Sea...Florida...and the
eastern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 5 am EDT...0900z...the eye of Hurricane Dennis was located near
latitude 20.7 north...longitude 79.1 west or about 275 miles...
440 km...southeast of Havana Cuba and about 320 miles...515 km...
south-southeast of Key West Florida.

Dennis is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph ...26 km/hr. This
motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. On this
track...the eye of Dennis will reach central Cuba later today.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 135 mph...215 km/hr...with
higher gusts. Dennis is a category four hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson scale. Some additional strengthening is possible
before landfall in Cuba.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles... 85 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 140 miles...220 km.

Minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA reconnaissance plane was
950 mb...28.05 inches.
Dennis is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to
10 inches over Cuba...with local 15 inch amounts over the Sierra
maestra mountains of southeastern Cuba. Rainfall of 4 to 8 inches
is expected over extreme souther Florida...Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods
and mud slides.

Storm surge flooding of 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...are likely in
areas of onshore winds along the southeast coast of Cuba east of
Cabo cruz. A much larger storm surge of near 20 feet is possible
along the southern coast of Cuba west of Cabo cruz. A storm surge
of 3 to 6 feet is possible in the lower Florida Keys.

Repeating the 5 am EDT position...20.7 N... 79.1 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 950 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 8 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 am
EDT.

Forecaster Avila/Roberts

$$

[ALhurricane]

...Dangerous Hurricane Danny fury aims at central and western
Cuba...


Did Dennis apply for a legal name change?

[ericinmia]

Hurricane Dennis Discussion Number 15


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on July 08, 2005



the eye became a little disrupted a few hours ago when the hurricane
crossed near Cabo cruz Cuba. Since then...Dennis has been moving
over the shallow warm waters south of Camaguey Cuba over a group of
small islands named...archipielago de la reina...and the eye has
become better defined surrounded by a ring of very deep convection.
A NOAA plane just checked the hurricane and measured a minimum
pressure of 950 mb and surface winds of 113 knots with the stepped
frequency radiometer(sfmr). Initial intensity is kept at 115
knots...a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane
scale. The eye is expected to remain over very warm water for
about 12 more hours before landfall in Cuba...so additional
strengthening is possible. Some slight weakening may occur over
Cuba but Dennis is forecast to remain as a dangerous category four
hurricane while in the Gulf of Mexico. This is suggested by most of
the intensity guidance.

Satellite and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Dennis has been
moving betwen 305 and 310 degrees at about 13 to 14 knots during
the past few hours. On this track...the powerfull hurricane will be
crossing central/western Cuba within the next 12 to 24 hours and
then once in the Gulf of Mexico...it is forecast to turn more to
the northwest around the western edge of the subtropical ridge.
Most of the guidance shifted a little bit westward during the first
12 to 24 hours..but this appears to be a reflection of the initial
motion. Thereafter...track models consistently turn Dennis more to
the northwest. The UK model continues to be the farther west and
the GFS the farther east. The official forecast lies in the middle
of these two models and follows the consensus.

Dennis is expected to be a very powerful hurricane while crossing
Cuba. Unfortunately...this hurricane will likely cause devastation
along its path.

Forecaster Avila/Roberts

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 08/0900z 20.7n 79.1w 115 kt
12hr VT 08/1800z 22.0n 80.7w 120 kt...inland
24hr VT 09/0600z 23.8n 82.8w 115 kt...over water
36hr VT 09/1800z 25.8n 84.5w 115 kt
48hr VT 10/0600z 27.7n 85.7w 115 kt
72hr VT 11/0600z 31.5n 88.0w 80 kt...inland
96hr VT 12/0600z 36.6n 89.5w 30 kt...inland
120hr VT 13/0600z 39.5n 86.5w 20 kt...inland


$$

[mtm4319]

0.4 N
0.6 W

Technically WNW the past 3 hours, but it'll have to continue this track for a few more until the NHC will change the heading.

[mtm4319]

[NC George]

UNFORTUNATELY...THIS HURRICANE WILL LIKELY CAUSE DEVASTATION
ALONG ITS PATH. - a quote from the 5am discussion. Why are they hedging? I can say with some certainty that this (cat 4 and increasing) hurricane WILL DEFINITELY cause devestation along its path.

[myred]

...Dangerous Hurricane Danny fury aims at central and western
Cuba...


Did Dennis apply for a legal name change?

Leave it to these guys. I am sure they use short names behing the seens..

FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

[cycloneye]

Thanks to all who helped in posting the early morning advisorys but I am back!!.

[ericinmia]

Thanks to all who helped in posting the early morning advisorys but I am back!!.

Ah finally there will be some worthy competition...