00z GFS is trickling in.. North.. West.. North Off Coast..

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JPmia
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#21 Postby JPmia » Thu Jul 07, 2005 10:45 pm

Looks like it goes NNW then NW then WNW around Key West.
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gatorcane
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#22 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jul 07, 2005 10:45 pm

water temps in the FL straits are around 85 degrees with very little shear. Will strengthen back to a CAT3+ very rapidly.
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#23 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 10:46 pm

WOAH! HARD Left! :D That's a little strange.
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#24 Postby dhweather » Thu Jul 07, 2005 10:46 pm

Derek Ortt has pointed out that dropsonde data from in the core was being put into the GFS, and that messed things up. The "fix" was
due out soon. Maybe we can get clarification from him.
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#25 Postby tim_in_ga » Thu Jul 07, 2005 10:46 pm

Strange indeed. Anyone getting over 6 frames yet??
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#26 Postby ericinmia » Thu Jul 07, 2005 10:46 pm

Frederic1979 wrote:Already bogus run, if you notice it has the high pressure backed way off florida, so we know it starts out with poor initialization.


It is initialized with the data from the recon missions, that sampled that ridge exhaustively.

I am NOT saying this is coming to miami, or up the east coast!!!!

This model run VERY, closely models what the current synopits are in the atmosphere. If you see otherwise, please post the details.
-Eric
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#27 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 10:47 pm

tim_in_ga wrote:Strange indeed. Anyone getting over 6 frames yet??

Already beginning to question this entire run...will let the thing run through though...
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#28 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jul 07, 2005 10:48 pm

WOAH! HARD Left! That's a little strange.


Not really, I see why it is doing that...the southern edge of the ridge of FL begins at about 26 degrees...
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#29 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 10:49 pm

boca_chris wrote:
WOAH! HARD Left! That's a little strange.


Not really, I see why it is doing that...the southern edge of the ridge of FL begins at about 26 degrees...

Yes, ridge definitely being noticed. More "left" movements in recent frames.
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#30 Postby dhweather » Thu Jul 07, 2005 10:49 pm

I'm up to 8 frames - 42 hours
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#31 Postby JPmia » Thu Jul 07, 2005 10:50 pm

GFS says nah not SE FL...let's go to the Panhandle..expanding west ridge explain the apparent WNW track around Key West?
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#32 Postby tim_in_ga » Thu Jul 07, 2005 10:50 pm

Anyone notice the high building in over Indiana? Maybe that might slow Dennis down, or steer it one way or the other?
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#33 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 10:50 pm

dhweather wrote:I'm up to 8 frames - 42 hours

me as well. Early extrap (could be bad doing that) shows a MS/AL hit. We'll see very soon...
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#34 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jul 07, 2005 10:50 pm

Yes exactly but S. Florida better count on that ridge holding for the next 48 hours....it hasn't held that long all year yet :eek:
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#35 Postby rtd2 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 10:51 pm

jkt21787 wrote:WOAH! HARD Left! :D That's a little strange.



Said this Earlier.... With the Highs Flow East to West we may see DUE WEST MVT around the time it approachs Keys!
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#36 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 10:51 pm

Keys ARE in big trouble still....if the run is right (I should add)
Last edited by jkt21787 on Thu Jul 07, 2005 10:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Derek Ortt

#37 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Jul 07, 2005 10:51 pm

this also has inner core dropsondes. Once there is recon, the GFS has become a joke the last couple of years. This is why I really do not use the model for making a forecast. Gravity wave galore are generated
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#38 Postby Ixolib » Thu Jul 07, 2005 10:52 pm

Interestinger and interestinger....
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#39 Postby dhweather » Thu Jul 07, 2005 10:52 pm

tim_in_ga wrote:Anyone notice the high building in over Indiana? Maybe that might slow Dennis down, or steer it one way or the other?


That's the reinforcement high that the UKMET has had dropping in from the Plains for three straight days worht of runs.
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#40 Postby JPmia » Thu Jul 07, 2005 10:52 pm

that is too darn close for me! I'm off to bed.
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