Dennis Advisorys

[Foladar]

That Friday dot is looking way too close to the Keys.

[gkrangers]

Keys should be spared the brunt of the storm...but hurricane force winds seem likely for the Dry Tortugas and Key West.

[Brent]

Oh My Heck...

forecast valid 08/1200z 21.2n 79.2w
Max wind 120 kt...gusts 145 kt.
64 kt... 45ne 30se 20sw 30nw.
50 kt... 75ne 70se 25sw 50nw.
34 kt...120ne 110se 75sw 100nw.

[LCfromFL]

Oh My Heck...

forecast valid 08/1200z 21.2n 79.2w
Max wind 120 kt...gusts 145 kt.
64 kt... 45ne 30se 20sw 30nw.
50 kt... 75ne 70se 25sw 50nw.
34 kt...120ne 110se 75sw 100nw.

OMG...a 145 kt gust is a 167 mph gust of wind!!!

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Dennis Forecast/Advisory Number 14


Statement as of 03:00Z on July 08, 2005



at 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...the government of Cuba has upgraded the
Hurricane Watch to a Hurricane Warning for The Provinces of la
Habana and Ciudad de la Habana. A Hurricane Warning is now in
effect for The Provinces of la Habana...ciudana de la Habana...
Matanzas... Villa Clara... Cienfuegos...Sancti Spiritus...Ciego de
Avila...Camaguey...Las Tunas...Granma...Santiago de Cuba...Holguin
and Guantanamo. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the
remaining provinces of Cuba including the Isle of Youth and Pinar
del Rio.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the lower Florida Keys
from the Seven Mile Bridge westward to the Dry Tortugas...and a
Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the remainder of the
Florida Keys...east of the Seven Mile Bridge to Ocean Reef
and Florida Bay. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the
Florida Keys east of the Seven Mile Bridge to Ocean Reef and
Florida Bay.

At 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect
along the Florida West Coast south of Bonita Beach...and along the
Florida East Coast south of Golden Beach. A tropical storm watch is
now in effect along the Florida West Coast north of Bonita Beach to
Longboat Key.

At 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...the Hurricane Warning for the southwestern
peninsula of Haiti is cancelled. A Hurricane Warning remains in
effect for all of Jamaica and all of the Cayman Islands. Warnings
in Jamaica will likely be cancelled Friday morning.

A hurricane or Tropical Storm Warning means that hurricane or
tropical storm conditions...respectively...are expected within the
warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane
Warning area.

A hurricane or tropical storm watch means that hurricane or tropical
storm conditions...respectively...are possible within the watch
area...generally within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean
Sea...Florida...and the eastern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the
progress of Dennis.

Hurricane center located near 19.9n 77.6w at 08/0300z
position accurate within 15 nm

present movement toward the northwest or 310 degrees at 13 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 950 mb
eye diameter 15 nm
Max sustained winds 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt.
64 kt....... 45ne 30se 20sw 30nw.
50 kt....... 75ne 70se 25sw 50nw.
34 kt.......120ne 110se 75sw 100nw.
12 ft seas..120ne 150se 75sw 100nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 19.9n 77.6w at 08/0300z
at 08/0000z center was located near 19.4n 77.1w

forecast valid 08/1200z 21.2n 79.2w
Max wind 120 kt...gusts 145 kt.
64 kt... 45ne 30se 20sw 30nw.
50 kt... 75ne 70se 25sw 50nw.
34 kt...120ne 110se 75sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 09/0000z 23.0n 81.2w...inland
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.
64 kt... 45ne 30se 20sw 30nw.
50 kt... 75ne 75se 30sw 60nw.
34 kt...120ne 120se 75sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 09/1200z 24.8n 83.1w...over water
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.
64 kt... 45ne 30se 20sw 30nw.
50 kt... 75ne 75se 40sw 60nw.
34 kt...140ne 120se 90sw 120nw.

Forecast valid 10/0000z 26.8n 84.6w
Max wind 110 kt...gusts 135 kt.
50 kt... 75ne 75se 50sw 70nw.
34 kt...140ne 130se 100sw 140nw.

Forecast valid 11/0000z 30.5n 87.0w...inland
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.
50 kt... 80ne 80se 60sw 70nw.
34 kt...140ne 140se 110sw 140nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 12/0000z 35.5n 88.0w...inland
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Outlook valid 13/0000z 38.5n 86.0w...inland
Max wind 20 kt...gusts 25 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 19.9n 77.6w

next advisory at 08/0900z

forecaster Beven

[Swimdude]

Yeesh... Suddenly our first hurricane of the season has become our first cat. 1, 2, 3, and 4 of the season. I think that's a good place for it to stop.

[GalvestonDuck]

Oh My Heck...

*snicker* First time I ever heard that...and the last time...was from Neleh on Survivor.

[soonertwister]

I'm not at all happy with this latest advisory from NHC.

Why?

1. "Bonita Beach" is not an identifiable place name, at least not at Mapquest.com. I know where they are talking about, but what about people who aren't sure about geography?

2. Clearly, somewhere around Fort Myers and south is easily within the definition of "possible hurricane conditions within 36 hours". That merits a hurricane watch, and if those conditions persist, a warning 12 hours later.

The fact the NHC has not issued anything but a tropical storm warning for anywhere on the mainland of Florida is a big, big mistake. Drop the political squabbling guys, this could be a category 4 hurricane, and the strike point is by no means certain.

ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION. AT THE CENTER OF YOUR PROJECTED PATH THIS HURRICANE WON'T BE MUCH MORE THAN 100 MILES OFFSHORE. STOP WORRYING ABOUT THE MILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF PRODUCTIVITY AND TOURISM THAT MIGHT BE LOST BY PEOPLE NOT WORKING IN SOUTH FLORIDA TOMORROW, START WORRYING ABOUT CHILDREN WHO COULD IN UNUSUAL CONDITIONS BE CAUGHT BY THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

This is just stupid. Maybe Fort Myers doesn't need to be notified until everybody wakes up tomorrow that they might get hit by a category 4 hurricane, but maybe they do, or at least some people south of them. There are people under hurricane warnings that are along the same path that if Dennis follows, will subject people along the Florida coast to severe hurricane conditions within 36 hours.

C'mon, this isn't rocket science. the eastern middle Florida Keys are under a hurricane warning, areas 100 miles due north aren't even under a tropical storm watch. That's criminal. The time frame for watches is 36 hours. Tell me where YOU think Dennis will be by 11 a.m. on Saturday morning.

[Brent]

I'm not at all happy with this latest advisory from NHC.

Why?

1. "Bonita Beach" is not an identifiable place name, at least not at Mapquest.com.

Just north of Naples... am I the only one here who knows where almost every NHC breakpoint is? Bonita Beach is actually one of the more identifable ones.

[gkrangers]

Do you have the link to the map of the breakpoints?

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Use a better map site

http://maps.google.com/maps?oi=map&q=Bonita+Beach,+FL

[gkrangers]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/breakpoints.shtml

These are the breakpoints.

[cycloneye]

080310
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2005

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER MEASURED 700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 134 KT IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL AT 07/2314Z...AND ALSO
REPORTED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF DENNIS HAD DROPPED TO 951 MB.
SINCE THAT TIME...THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF DENNIS HAS NOT CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY. BASED ON THIS AND ON 115 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB...DENNIS IS UPGRADED TO A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. DENNIS MAY HAVE
UNDERGONE AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS
THE 9 N MI WIDE EYE SEEN EARLIER IS NOW 16 TO 20 N MI WIDE. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 950 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE IS AN ESTIMATE AND
COULD WELL BE TOO HIGH.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310-315 AT ABOUT 13 KT. DATA FROM A
TWO-AIRCRAFT SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION SHOWS THAT A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED ALONG 26N OVER
FLOIDA AND THE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO. A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE IS ALSO
PRESENT...BUT IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER. GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT DENNIS SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR
ABOUT 24 HR. AFTER THAT TIME...THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE...WITH THE
UKMET TAKING DENNIS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD LOUISIANA...THE CANADIAN
TAKING DENNIS NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...AND THE
OTHER GUIDANCE IN BETWEEN. THE GFDL HAS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT LEFT FROM
ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHILE THE GFS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT IN THE FIRST 36 HR AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT THEREAFTER. AS
DENNIS HAS NOT YET DEVIATED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...THE
NEW FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THAT TRACK THROUGH THE FIRST
36 HR. AFTER THAT...THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
LEFT...WEST...AND LIES ALONG THE RIGHT EDGE OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF
GUIDANCE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. IN THE SHORT TERM...DENNIS
COULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN UNTIL THE CORE ENCOUNTERS CENTRAL
CUBA...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. AFTER
THAT...SEVERAL FACTORS COME INTO PLAY. THESE INCLUDE...WILL THE
CURRENTLY TIGHTLY WOUND CORE OF DENNIS SURVIVE PASSAGE ACROSS
LAND...WHAT CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES MAY OCCUR...AND HOW MUCH
ENERGY IS AVAILABLE IN THE WARM...BUT THIN...SURFACE LAYER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGEST THAT THE OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT WILL DECREASE AS DENNIS MOVES NORTHWARD...CAUSING THE STORM
TO WEAKEN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL AND GFDN BOTH CALL FOR
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE GULF. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0300Z 19.9N 77.6W 115 KT
12HR VT 08/1200Z 21.2N 79.2W 120 KT
24HR VT 09/0000Z 23.0N 81.2W 100 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 09/1200Z 24.8N 83.1W 100 KT
48HR VT 10/0000Z 26.8N 84.6W 110 KT
72HR VT 11/0000Z 30.5N 87.0W 100 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 12/0000Z 35.5N 88.0W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 13/0000Z 38.5N 86.0W 20 KT...INLAND

[Brent]

Do you have the link to the map of the breakpoints?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/breakpoints.shtml

Pick a region.

[yzerfan]

I've heard somewhere that the NHC likes to use locations close to county lines as break points because it makes it easier for emergency planners/EOC issues. So you end up with Bonita Beach, Englewood, Destin, and Indian Pass as breakpoints instead of Ft. Myers, Sarasota, Ft. Walton Beach (on the breakpoint list but never really used) and Port St. Joe on the advisories.

[Air Force Met]

Oh My Heck...

*snicker* First time I ever heard that...and the last time...was from Neleh on Survivor.

That's what I thought too lol

[NC George]

I can remember a Ft Waldon Beach cutoff point from the past few years.

[Cookiely]

I'm not at all happy with this latest advisory from NHC.

Why?

1. "Bonita Beach" is not an identifiable place name, at least not at Mapquest.com. I know where they are talking about, but what about people who aren't sure about geography?

2. Clearly, somewhere around Fort Myers and south is easily within the definition of "possible hurricane conditions within 36 hours". That merits a hurricane watch, and if those conditions persist, a warning 12 hours later.

The fact the NHC has not issued anything but a tropical storm warning for anywhere on the mainland of Florida is a big, big mistake. Drop the political squabbling guys, this could be a category 4 hurricane, and the strike point is by no means certain.

ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION. AT THE CENTER OF YOUR PROJECTED PATH THIS HURRICANE WON'T BE MUCH MORE THAN 100 MILES OFFSHORE. STOP WORRYING ABOUT THE MILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF PRODUCTIVITY AND TOURISM THAT MIGHT BE LOST BY PEOPLE NOT WORKING IN SOUTH FLORIDA TOMORROW, START WORRYING ABOUT CHILDREN WHO COULD IN UNUSUAL CONDITIONS BE CAUGHT BY THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

This is just stupid. Maybe Fort Myers doesn't need to be notified until everybody wakes up tomorrow that they might get hit by a category 4 hurricane, but maybe they do, or at least some people south of them. There are people under hurricane warnings that are along the same path that if Dennis follows, will subject people along the Florida coast to severe hurricane conditions within 36 hours.

C'mon, this isn't rocket science. the eastern middle Florida Keys are under a hurricane warning, areas 100 miles due north aren't even under a tropical storm watch. That's criminal. The time frame for watches is 36 hours. Tell me where YOU think Dennis will be by 11 a.m. on Saturday morning.

I have faith they know what they are doing. The people making the decisions know that its life and death they are dealing with. I also know that a lot has to do with dollars and cents concerning the evacuations. Frankly, this scares me:
"Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day "
On the other hand what are they supposed to do. Order the evacuation of the entire west coast of Florida? I can't even imagine the chaos that would occur.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Lets see if they can get that down to about 100 nmi on day 4. In 150 on day 5. In get the winds with in 10 knots. I hope they can pull it it off. If they can then wow they really did a good job.

You can do it NHC!!!

[soonertwister]

Technical breakpoints, you have to be kidding me.

Far more people use mapquest than google, for one thing. All "technical breakpoints" are absolutely worthless for a public advisory.

You have to make your informatin as clear as possible to the public. They are who you are trying to advise. I don't care about technical anything, or whether anyone can find those definitiions on the internet. Until last year, within 24 hours of landfall, you were lucky to even be able to connect with the NHC site due to lack of bandwidth.

Try to figure out where a hurricane could strike within 36 hours, within the cone as defined by NHC. Now you are going to tell me that they acted responsibly with the 11 pm advisory? Most people if not warned will not see another advisory for another 7 hours at least. People have to sleep.

The mission of the NHC is to protect the public to the best of their abilities from disaster, without creating undue panic. Would a tropical storm watch along the west coast of Florida from Fort Myers southward have been ill-advised? According the potential path and vagaraies regarding forward speed, I believe it was necessary to warn those people.

Some people around here are absolulety brain-numbed when it comes to criticizing NHC. I maybe mean lady about their decisions once or twice in a season, yet whenever I complain I'm met with a unified chorus of opposition.

There were people last year with Charlie that noted that a slight path deviation to the right could cause landfall well south of Tampa Bay. Just because people voice an opnion does not automatically mean that the NHC is correct. They are human. Last year, they underestimated what their little dotted line would do to people, and people suffered as a result.

The southwest Florida coast is extremely vulnerable to severe flooding in a strong hurricane on or near the coast in that area. It's identified as one of the most at-risk areas in the United States.

Criticize my opinion all you want, but you won't quell me without banning me from this board. I AM NOT TRYING TO CREATE PANIC, BUT TO ALERT PEOPLE TO A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY THAT THEY MIGHT BE IN SOME DANGER. That isn't irresponsible, it's personal responsibility.

If you want to argue with my assertion, I'll be glad to hear what you say. But to condemn me because I don't disagree with the technicalese used by NHC when they could have easily selected a notable place with an actual zipcode, that's wrong. People don't hang out on weather boards. They need weather delivered clearly and in good time.

I'm not wrong here, at least I don't think I am. If you want to debate me, here I am. Take your best shot.