Latest on the questionable strength of the ridge

[x-y-no]

EDIT: (forgot the disclaimer)

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I do think there's enough of a ridge there to keep Dennis west of the Florida peninsula, but I just don't see it as strong enough to push him even quite as far left as the current NHC track.

I posted about the trend with the ridge earlier today in this thread: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=66630&start=140

Here's the latest wind satellite analysis, 100 - 500 mb ...

Three hours earlier:



And the latest:



These images are from the Wisconsin University site, cropped down for convenience.

It seems clear to me that the southwestern edge of the ridge is eroding slightly, with weaker upper level winds and a bit of a turn north. Also, the trough across the northern Gulf is getting stronger and still pushing southeast ever so slowly.

This almost certainly won't break down the ridge fast enough to allow Dennis to hit the Florida peninsula, but I think it does allow for a track across Key west and then parallel to the Florida coast up to the area from Appalachicola to Pensacola.

Jan

[Josephine96]

A paralell to the coast track could be disasterous.. especially if the eye happens to ride the coast all the way up.. or even if it stays just off shore..

[gatorcane]

Thanks Jan...much appreciated for this info

West Coast of FL :

[x-y-no]

A paralell to the coast track could be disasterous.. especially if the eye happens to ride the coast all the way up.. or even if it stays just off shore..

Actually, I'm thinking more in terms of at least one, maybe two degrees west of the coast. There'd be TS strength winds but not likely hurricane strength ashore, until it gets to the panhandle, of course.

Would probably not intensify much along that path either - might hold steady at a strong cat 2. Further west, better prospects of intensifying back to a major.

Jan

[Ziplock]

Had to weigh in here. I was actually looking up and watching the upper level (very high) clouds racing east to West (I'm just south of Miami) and observed a rather abrupt change in speed and direction corresponding to your graphics.

I believe I saw exactly what you have shown above, firsthand. That is, the strength of the ridge, and its orientation over the Penninsula has changed, and that change may very likely have significant implications (I know, I know, I'm in Miami and saying "EAST") for the steering of Dennis.

Zip

[Weatherboy1]

speaking of what people are seeing in SE FL, I saw an amazing sunset here. Clear skies to the west, but ominous looking thunderclouds offshore with a massive anvil-type peak blowing off to the NW. The setting sun reflected off the cloudtops and created an eerie reddish-pink glow over the whole area. If I remember "Isaac's Storm" (haven't read it in a while), that's what the namesake character saw out over the Gulf as that hurricane moved toward Galveston (no, I'm not saying Dennis will hit me in Jupiter, just remarking on what I saw)

-Mike

[x-y-no]

Had to weigh in here. I was actually looking up and watching the upper level (very high) clouds racing east to West (I'm just south of Miami) and observed a rather abrupt change in speed and direction corresponding to your graphics.

I believe I saw exactly what you have shown above, firsthand. That is, the strength of the ridge, and its orientation over the Penninsula has changed, and that change may very likely have significant implications (I know, I know, I'm in Miami and saying "EAST") for the steering of Dennis.

Zip

Yeah, I went outside now and then during the afternoon to try and verify this too. I didn't see a pronounced change (I'm in North Dade) but I did see some.

And just to dispell the -removed- notion, I was in South Miami for Andrew - that wasn't the worst part, but post-storm analysis says that neighborhood was borderline Cat 3/4. I feel no need to go though that again. (Besides, I'm not saying he's going to hit the peninsula - quite the opposite)

Jan

[Steve H.]

Excellent post Jan. But what ridge there is in't strong at all. I think Dennis will parallel the west coast, but only 20 - 40 miles off Tampa.

[gatorcane]

It looks to me like the High just off the E coast of NE FL is moving towards the E as a trough digging down from the plains and a ULL moving SE from the Great Lakes is affecting it. I hope the hurricane models are factoring in these features.

You can see in the water vapor loop the counter-clockwise flow across FL but as many have pointed out the orientation is shifting. With this setup I don't see how this hurricane can go any farther west than the panhandle of FL.

I hope the High doesn't move E too much because it would open the door for a more northerly track into Appalachacola.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html

[Nimbus]

The ridge is elongated west to east shaped like an eye.
Looks to me as though the southwest corner of the ridge is starting to pick up stronger southeasterly winds to push the trough back \\\\\

[deltadog03]

The ridge is elongated west to east shaped like an eye.
Looks to me as though the southwest corner of the ridge is starting to pick up stronger southeasterly winds to push the trough back \\\\\

i agree with ya nimbus

[dhweather]

Well, the trough MAY get sucked up and follow Cindy's remnants, leaving the ridge.

There are so many dynamics at work, it's scary.

[deltadog03]

to me...on the WV, it looked like the ridge was trying to push out the trof in the central gulf somewhat...

[shan]

Mike, I am in jupiter as well and was sitting in my backyard tonight and had the same thoughts as you. In my two years here in Florida I have never seen a sunset such as this one. Don't really know what it means but it sure gave me an eerie feeling.

Shannon

[Weatherboy1]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html

Up by North Carolina, the dark area/trough in this WV loop is starting to push the N end of that ridge offshore further. In the gulf, the leading edge of the trough still appears to be hanging tough in the Panama City Beach area. And for the life of me, I don't know how this ridge -- which appears to be getting squeezed -- is going to hold up. Again, I have no doubt this storm will go WEST of me here in SE FL. But it sure looks to me like it could get a lot closer to peninsular FL than originally expected.

-Mike

[NC George]

speaking of what people are seeing in SE FL, I saw an amazing sunset here. Clear skies to the west, but ominous looking thunderclouds offshore with a massive anvil-type peak blowing off to the NW.

-Mike

We had a pretty, strange sunset here in Eastern NC, too. The remnants of Cindy created a black wall towards the north and west, and the sky was still a bright tropical blue to the east and south. Topping it off, a huge rainbow went overhead from Cindy's remnants towards the SE.

[Nimbus]

This ridge is going to be key to the steering so lets bookmark the thread and come back tomorrow and take a look.
A couple green arrows isn't enough proof.

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html

Up by North Carolina, the dark area/trough in this WV loop is starting to push the N end of that ridge offshore further. In the gulf, the leading edge of the trough still appears to be hanging tough in the Panama City Beach area. And for the life of me, I don't know how this ridge -- which appears to be getting squeezed -- is going to hold up. Again, I have no doubt this storm will go WEST of me here in SE FL. But it sure looks to me like it could get a lot closer to peninsular FL than originally expected.

-Mike

Agree 100%...I saw MW pop in earlier..Where he go? His input is needed once again

[ericinmia]

And the latest:

That image was actually from 2pm edt... or 18z

It was over 7 hours old when posted. So the conditions could be much different.
-Eric

[loon]

eric...

Whats up with the 0000Z Layer-Mean not being reported? Is there a reason why it missed this one....maybe the sat doesn't work at this time of night or something?