00:00z Model Guidance

[Opal storm]

New model run crushes Pensacola

[jkt21787]

Now we can see the west shift there. Its slight as of this point, and puts the NHC track in pretty good place.

[goodlife]

ok...I get it now....sorry

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE DENNIS (AL042005) ON 20050708 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050708 0000 050708 1200 050709 0000 050709 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.4N 77.1W 20.7N 79.0W 22.0N 80.7W 23.4N 82.2W
BAMM 19.4N 77.1W 21.1N 79.3W 22.4N 81.0W 23.9N 82.6W
A98E 19.4N 77.1W 21.0N 79.2W 22.7N 81.0W 24.4N 82.5W
LBAR 19.4N 77.1W 21.1N 79.2W 22.9N 81.1W 24.7N 82.8W
SHIP 115KTS 120KTS 123KTS 120KTS
DSHP 115KTS 120KTS 76KTS 81KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050710 0000 050711 0000 050712 0000 050713 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.9N 83.5W 28.8N 86.2W 33.8N 87.8W 37.1N 84.7W
BAMM 25.5N 84.0W 29.2N 86.8W 33.1N 88.9W 35.7N 87.7W
A98E 26.6N 84.0W 30.7N 86.8W 34.8N 88.2W 37.5N 86.3W
LBAR 26.4N 84.0W 29.3N 85.8W 32.2N 87.7W 34.8N 87.1W
SHIP 118KTS 102KTS 74KTS 47KTS
DSHP 79KTS 53KTS 29KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.4N LONCUR = 77.1W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 17.6N LONM12 = 74.9W DIRM12 = 315DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 16.3N LONM24 = 73.1W
WNDCUR = 115KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 90KT
CENPRS = 951MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 110NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 100NM




Refresh the grafic to see the 00:00z run.

[Stratosphere747]

Now we can see the west shift there. Its slight as of this point, and puts the NHC track in pretty good place.

I tell you, it sure looks like they have had a good handle on it...They never have made huge shift as of yet..Be interesting to see if there is even any at 11..

[LilNoles2005]

Now that is tightly clustered.

[nolecaster]

So if the GFS screws up.....then what?

[baygirl_1]

okay, i'm already feeling quite storm weary here. i've been out of pocket much of the day and am trying to catch up, but there's so much info to take in! could someone please tell me if there's been a trend to these models? it sounds like they've been hopping around today. that right? i've got to decide tomorrow what we're doing as i have to consider my elderly mother as well as rest of family. so, i'm feeling a bit anxious and want all data i can get!

[gkrangers]

So if the GFS screws up.....then what?

The hurricane models (GFDL, 98E,BAMMs, LBAR) all follow the GFS. So whatever the GFS does, those models will follow closely.

[Opal storm]

I'm starting to see more agreement in the track,more than likely a AL/western FL panhandle landfall will occur.

[HurryKane]

So if the GFS screws up.....then what?

Then we will aaaaaalll go down together
Yes we will aaaaalll go dowwwwwn together


(many apologies to Billy Joel)

[Brent]

Pensacola is the target IMO.

[gkrangers]

I'm starting to see more agreement in the track,more than likely a AL/western FL panhandle landfall will occur.

There are still two general camps. The GFS based models are more east...and the UKMET and ECMWF are still west towards LA.

[TS Zack]

Certainly more of a consensus. I stick to my landfall point, Ms/Al Border.

[AL Chili Pepper]

New model run crushes Pensacola

They've still got 2 days to shift around some more. You ever feel like you've got a target on you? Erin, Opal, Arlene, Ivan, Dennis? Alphabet soup.

[CFL]

Well it looks like Jim Cantore might have come to the right place after all . . .

[dhweather]

Here's the last three runs for comparison, definate shift back west.


<img src="http://www.diamondheadweather.com/dennis/storm_04-04.gif">

<img src="http://www.diamondheadweather.com/dennis/storm_04-05.gif">

<img src="http://www.diamondheadweather.com/dennis/storm_04-06.gif">

[Ixolib]

Here's the last three runs for comparison, definate shift back west.

But they are now more clustered, albeit further west. When they cluster like this, does that mean the handle is now much better and shifts are becoming less likely??

[baygirl_1]

thanks, dhweather, for posting those. it looks like they shifted a bit east then back a bit west. no real trend here, yet. we'll see what the next runs show, i guess...

[gatorcane]

I don't think these models are factoring in the ULL moving SE near the Great Lakes and the trough digging down from the plains. You can see the ridge protecting FL is moving towards the ENE because of these features. The upper-level flow over the northern Gulf is SW to NE. I don't see how this hurricane will move any farther west than the panhandle of FL...in fact...maybe a shift east in these models tonight and tomorrow.