This track is more plausible

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wxcrazytwo

This track is more plausible

#1 Postby wxcrazytwo » Thu Jul 07, 2005 2:56 pm

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Image

In another headline segment, I touched on the fact that often a hurricane will carve its own way through the tropics. This happens because the storm is the strongest thing going at that latitude. The inflow and outflow from a strong hurricane can make neighboring pressure systems somewhat stronger or weaker depending upon where they are. In turn, the hurricane takes the easiest route between them. This may be happening in the case of Dennis. Most of the computer generated information through early Thursday indicated that the storm center would move toward the Louisiana or Mississippi coast. More recent information subtly suggests that the storm track might be farther east. This path would be followed only if flanking high pressure systems are a little weaker and stronger as shown. This graphic opens the possibility that Dennis would make a direct hit on the Florida Panhandle rather than at a location farther west. Again, this is just a possibility, but keep it in the back of your mind.

[/url]http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnheir.html[url]

Dennis would have to start turning WNW and continue on that path, and then turn NW into FLOYBUSTER'S plan. I just don't see it happening. I like the above plot better.[/url]
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#2 Postby mahicks » Thu Jul 07, 2005 3:00 pm

Very Plausable and cool information, especially for a newbie like me :-)

Unfortunately that red line runs through my back yard :grrr:
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#3 Postby Cookiely » Thu Jul 07, 2005 3:02 pm

I'm extremely ignorant but I just wrote down Aucilla River to Indian Pass which seems close to what you have for landfall. I'm afraid its going to be closer to the coast and give everyone fits. But what do I know. I trust the NHC and hope the word is getting out better. You don't know how many people I talked to today had no idea there was a hurricane coming into the GOM.
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#4 Postby Brent » Thu Jul 07, 2005 3:09 pm

Mass panic if that happens. :eek: :eek: :eek:
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looks like..

#5 Postby LilNoles2005 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 3:15 pm

Looks like a Franklin County landfall...... I can't even imagine the storm surge in Apalachee Bay... that would put me in the NE quad (Wakulla County).

I'm still thinking P'Cola/Mobile.
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#6 Postby wxcrazytwo » Thu Jul 07, 2005 3:17 pm

If the High is sitting as indicated above I see Dennis skirting along the west coast. I just don't see it going to AL/MS because then the High would have to build back in rather rapidly. I just don't see it happening, but then, we can also have a charlie type scenario as well. Hurricanes are temperamental things aren't they..
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#7 Postby wxcrazytwo » Thu Jul 07, 2005 3:38 pm

The high will have to build back in quickly and strong to psh Dennis on a more westerly path. I just don't see it. I have said along that it will skirt the west coast.
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#8 Postby HurricaneJoe22 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 3:40 pm

Brent, I think there's gonna be mass panic no matter where this menace hits.
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#9 Postby stormie » Thu Jul 07, 2005 3:42 pm

Geez, what a catastrophe(!) it would be to have the storm skirt up the coast like that. It would affect the entire coastal area, but I guess still be over water, so still remain strong or gain strength!
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#10 Postby JenyEliza » Thu Jul 07, 2005 3:44 pm

Brent wrote:Mass panic if that happens. :eek: :eek: :eek:


No kidding. :cry:
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#11 Postby gpickett00 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 4:16 pm

with charley, they had the projected path up in the panhandle for a long time even until a few hours before landfall. what made charleys path so unexpected?
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#12 Postby Brent » Thu Jul 07, 2005 4:26 pm

gpickett00 wrote:with charley, they had the projected path up in the panhandle for a long time even until a few hours before landfall. what made charleys path so unexpected?


MASSIVE trough. Not going to happen this time.
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#13 Postby gpickett00 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:25 pm

but if there was a massive trough, why didnt they see it and anticipate it into the forecast?
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#14 Postby ericinmia » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:26 pm

Brent wrote:
gpickett00 wrote:with charley, they had the projected path up in the panhandle for a long time even until a few hours before landfall. what made charleys path so unexpected?


MASSIVE trough. Not going to happen this time.


They saw it, but didn't think it was going fast enough.
But we have nothing.
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#15 Postby tim_in_ga » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:27 pm

Yikes - that looks like it puts us on the bad side. Just what we don't need - more rain, wind, and possible tornados.
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#16 Postby jamima » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:31 pm

Charley changed because of a cold front! Thats not going to happen!!!
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#17 Postby JenyEliza » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:36 pm

tim_in_ga wrote:Yikes - that looks like it puts us on the bad side. Just what we don't need - more rain, wind, and possible tornados.


I'm just hoping that if Dennis the Menace comes this way, he isn't Ivan the Terrible reincarnated. We're in the I-75 corridor (just 3 counties away from AL border) above I-20 and Ivan knocked us for a loop something terrible.

After the rain we got over the 4th, then the rain we got last night from Cindy, the very LAST thing we need is more rain, and certainly no high winds, or there will be massive damage in the Atlanta area.

Did you see what happened to Atlanta Motorspeedway?
Image

Link to more Cindy photos from the Atlanta area. http://lpe.ajc.com/gallery/view/metro/0705/storm/

Crossing fingers here.....

Jeny
Last edited by JenyEliza on Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#18 Postby tim_in_ga » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:39 pm

Jeny - terrible that my favorite speedway got damaged. Scary that I used to live nearby there. Hopefully everyone can get their houses fixed or at least covered up before Dennis.
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#19 Postby Opal storm » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:00 pm

This track makes no sense.In order for Dennis to get this close to the peninsula it would have to be moving in a NNW/N direction.....but it's on a NW course.The more Dennis moves NW,the more the peninsula is better off.The peninsula is safe from a direct hit.
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Re: This track is more plausible

#20 Postby HalloweenGale » Thu Jul 07, 2005 9:03 pm

wxcrazytwo wrote:STORM2K Disclaimer:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Image

In another headline segment, I touched on the fact that often a hurricane will carve its own way through the tropics. This happens because the storm is the strongest thing going at that latitude. The inflow and outflow from a strong hurricane can make neighboring pressure systems somewhat stronger or weaker depending upon where they are. In turn, the hurricane takes the easiest route between them. This may be happening in the case of Dennis. Most of the computer generated information through early Thursday indicated that the storm center would move toward the Louisiana or Mississippi coast. More recent information subtly suggests that the storm track might be farther east. This path would be followed only if flanking high pressure systems are a little weaker and stronger as shown. This graphic opens the possibility that Dennis would make a direct hit on the Florida Panhandle rather than at a location farther west. Again, this is just a possibility, but keep it in the back of your mind.

[/url]http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnheir.html[url]

Dennis would have to start turning WNW and continue on that path, and then turn NW into FLOYBUSTER'S plan. I just don't see it happening. I like the above plot better.[/url]


OH CRAP! that graphic is from Accuweather.
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